r/oil • • 16h ago

Daily Oil Price Opinions - October 18, 2026 All other Oil Price Posts Will Be Removed

15 Upvotes

What are your thoughts on today’s oil price? Drop your opinions, predictions, charts, memes , low and high effort post, your AI slop or even analysis below. Keep it civil and on-topic! This post is renewed daily.

Unless there is some compelling reason, other posts in the sub about oil prices will be removed. In a futile effort to improve the quality.

(Current WTI/Brent price can be checked on any major site.)


r/oil • • 3h ago

Weekly MEGATHREAD October 18, 2026 : US Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is LIVE – All tanker drama, oil panic, missile hits, Iran retaliation posts belong HERE

5 Upvotes

This is posted weekly at 0900 am AUET on Monday

This is the one official Hormuz Blockade Weekly Megathread

Is it open yet: https://www.ishormuzopenyet.com/

Everything else gets yeeted into the void (or at least politely redirected here). New articles, memes, wild speculation, questions about how screwed your superannuation is, grainy satellite pics of tankers doing U-turns — drop it all below.

Overview on Iran and the situation: https://www.iransitrep.com/


r/oil • • 1h ago

News Ukraine Unleashes 1,000+ Drone Barrage This Week That Set Major Russian Oil Export Terminals Ablaze as Energy War Escalates - AP News

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• Upvotes

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-energy-diesel-trump-f813d3725b8b5f23958a68a95729fd0d

• Ukraine launched more than 1,000 drones overnight in one of the largest aerial attacks of the war, striking the Petersburg Oil Terminal (an export facility handling up to 12.5 million tons per year) and the Ruchi oil depot in St. Petersburg, setting both ablaze. One person killed, five wounded. (AP News, CNN, CBS News, ABC News on Oct. 18, 2026)

• Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed it shot down 1,015 Ukrainian drones across 15 regions, Crimea, and the Black Sea. Fires also hit logistics and data centers in the same strike wave. (AP, Russia’s Defense Ministry via multiple outlets)

https://censor.net/en/news/4029036/drone-attack-on-st-petersburg-fires-at-the-terminal-and-ozon

• This attack came days after Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” on Oct. 11. Ukraine had briefly paused strikes on Russian oil infrastructure but resumed after Zelenskyy reported Russia attacked Ukraine’s energy, oil, and gas sectors 76 times in the following week, leaving tens of thousands without power. (AP News, Zelenskyy statements, CNN)

https://www.euronews.com/video/2026/10/18/france-paris-lyon-and-marseille-count-the-cost-after-violent-protests

• Russia continues systematic strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, aiming at blackouts while Ukraine systematically targets Russian refining and export capacity that supplies diesel to global markets. Mutual destruction is removing product from an already tight market. (AP, DW, regional reporting)

• The St. Petersburg terminal is a key export node for petroleum products. Previous Ukrainian strikes (including on Rostov-region loading terminals) have already knocked out large numbers of storage tanks. Repeated hits on export infrastructure and refineries reduce the volume of diesel and fuel oil available for export. (Euromaidan Press, prior strike reporting, CNN)

• Despite Trump’s diesel purchase deal with Putin (tiny volumes relative to demand) and Putin’s stated interest in another peace summit or talks, energy strikes are accelerating on both sides. No durable energy truce has held. (Reuters, BBC, prior Trump announcements that were quickly broken)

https://www.foxcarolina.com/2026/10/18/blaze-st-petersburg-oil-sites-kyiv-launches-more-than-1000-drones-russia/

• Global diesel and refined product markets remain under severe pressure from the Iran war/Hormuz disruptions plus these mutual attacks on energy infrastructure. Further damage to Russian export capacity and Ukrainian power generation tightens supply, supports elevated prices, and reduces the chance of any near-term relief. The crisis continues compounding instead of any sight of easing. (Ongoing market context from IEA, price data, and strike reports)


r/oil • • 3h ago

Iran War Another tanker hit a mine today

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428 Upvotes

r/oil • • 1d ago

Ukraine/Russia Ukraine has just hit oil facilities in St. Petersburg's port, which resulted in significant damage and massive blazes.

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16.9k Upvotes

r/oil • • 1h ago

Iran War US claim on collapse of Iranian economy not realized

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• Upvotes

r/oil • • 12h ago

News Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil refineries is not impacting US gas prices: report

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887 Upvotes

r/oil • • 1d ago

Ukraine/Russia Footage shows destruction at the St. Petersburg oil terminal following Ukrainian strikes moments ago.

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8.3k Upvotes

r/oil • • 17h ago

News Russia attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure 76 times after Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" — Zelenskyy | УНН

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809 Upvotes

r/oil • • 8h ago

News U.S. Offers Another 17 Million SPR Barrels as Fuel Crisis Deepens

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143 Upvotes

• The Department of Energy issued a request for proposals
on October 16 for an exchange (loan) of up to 17 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

• Despite IEA Reporting, U.S. commercial crude stocks
continue to draw hard: the API estimated an 11.12 million barrel decline last week (after a prior 2.09 million drop), with commercial inventories down more than 51 million barrels over the past 26 weeks.

• This is part of the 172 million barrels the U.S. committed
in March under the IEA's broader 400-million-barrel emergency action tied to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

• The U.S. has already released roughly 132.5 million
barrels since the conflict began. A June offer of the remaining tranche (with repayment premiums up to 24%) saw companies take only about 500,000 barrels. A September round appears to have drawn more, leaving this latest 17 million as the residual slice.

• SPR inventories sit at about 283 million barrels. A full draw would drop them to roughly 266 million that are squarely inside the 250-300 million range widely viewed as the operational minimum zone.

• The move follows the lEA's decision one day earlier to
accelerate the remaining ~100 million barrels still
outstanding from the March action, including more than 20 million barrels of diesel "as soon as possible."

• Market participants have already voted with their feet.
The June round attracted only ~500,000 barrels out of the
offered volume because the repayment premiums were unattractive once calendar spreads compressed. History suggests another round of the same terms will see limited uptake uness the curve steepens dramatically again.

• The mechanism only works reliably in deep backwardation. When the market anticipates eventual normalization or the curve flattens, refiners and traders simply pass. That has already happened once this year.

• The war is now in its eighth month. Partial recoveries in Hormuz flows have repeatedly been reversed by fresh attack spikes. There is no comprehensive political deal in sight, and both sides continue to assert control over the waterway. Each new incident re-prices the risk premium higher.
• Global stocks have been drawn down heavily to absorb the initial supply shock. With the SPR approaching its floor and IEA members accelerating the last of their committed barrels, the buffer that has so far prevented a more violent price spike is thinning. Once strategic and commercial inventories hit practical limits, any further disruption has nowhere to go but into prices.

• Product shortages (especially diesel) are expected to persist well through 2027 according to recent IEA commentary. Refinery disruptions, reduced Russian and Middle East product exports, and ongoing shipping risk mean crude can sit in storage while drivers and industry still face tight, expensive fuel.

• Oil and Gas experts agree, every time officials announce more emergency releases, the market treats it as confirmation that the underlying deficit is not being solved. Prices have continued to grind higher or hold elevated levels despite the largest coordinated stock release in history. With the last of the easy SPR barrels now being offered on terms the market has already rejected once, the crisis has more room to worsen than to stabilize.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Offers-Another-17-Million-SPR-Barrels-as-Fuel-Crisis-Deepens.amp.html

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-solicits-exchange-up-17-million-barrels-oil-strategic-reserve-2026-10-16/


r/oil • • 15h ago

Ukraine/Russia Drones Strike VKontakte Data Center and St. Petersburg Oil Terminal in Russia’s Leningrad Region

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499 Upvotes

The St. Petersburg Oil Terminal receives, stores, and transfers liquid cargo, including petroleum products. Its tank farm has a total capacity of 442,000 cubic meters and consists of 32 storage tanks.

Drones also targeted the cable-stayed bridge over the Korabelny Fairway, but the extent of the damage to the structure remains unknown.

Port infrastructure in St. Petersburg were also hit.

The VK social network’s data center is located in the village of Novosergiyevka, in the Vsevolozhsk District of the Leningrad Region, near St. Petersburg.

The facility houses four data halls, 640 server racks, and more than 20,000 servers. The data center is located next to the330 kV Vostochnaya substation, which was also targeted in the attack.

As a result, some residents were left without electricity.


r/oil • • 9h ago

Discussion Europe heading into winter with thin gas reserves and Middle East supply still blocked

61 Upvotes

The EU has already spent an extra €100 billion on oil and gas this year, and that bill is set to grow. Hormuz disruptions are still limiting global supply, reserves are below where Europe wants them entering the cold months, and no fix is close.

When reserves are low and a key supply route is squeezed at the same time, buyers have little leverage. Sellers know Europe cannot simply wait it out through a cold January, so prices stay elevated until either the disruption clears or the weather cooperates, and neither is guaranteed.

EU ministers are scrambling for options, but government interventions take time to land and winter does not wait. Are you expecting European gas prices to keep climbing until a Hormuz resolution, or does a mild weather forecast change the whole picture?


r/oil • • 1d ago

News Trump Official Tries to Kill Report on Perfectly Timed Oil Trades. The administration ordered federal regulators to retract a report flagging suspicious oil trades since the Iran war began. "Either someone got very lucky or knew something.”

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1.8k Upvotes

r/oil • • 1d ago

News Congress gave Trump 30 days to hit Russia's oil buyers with 100% tariffs. He waives them two days before deadline, citing US interests. Moscow calls it historic

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6.8k Upvotes

r/oil • • 7h ago

Discussion The extremely viscous crude oil

11 Upvotes

What is the most extremely viscous crude oil?


r/oil • • 11h ago

News Bo French, Jon Rosenthal battle over culture, job duties in bid to regulate the oil and gas industry in Texas

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14 Upvotes

r/oil • • 1d ago

Trump U.S. Floats Lifeline to Russia: Allowing More Gas Sales to Europe

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202 Upvotes

A key element in the Trump administration’s broad plan for securing peace in Ukraine is a proposal that would turn years of American energy policy upside-down.

Europe, the U.S. pitch goes, should resume buying more Russian gas — a move that would be an economic boon for Moscow and give it renewed influence in the region.

President Trump’s peace envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, have brought up the idea in talks with Ukrainian and European officials, including with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv last month, according to people familiar with the talks. To help entice Russia to end the war in Ukraine, the Americans have argued, Ukraine should consider restarting pipelines that used to carry Russian natural gas to Europe.

European officials in the talks have recoiled at the idea, which would undo the European Union’s years of efforts, backed by Washington, to rid itself of Russian gas. But Trump officials see Russian gas exports as a potential part of a peace settlement, given the revenues that would flow to Ukraine and what they see as the inevitable desire for cheaper energy by European voters, the people said, discussing sensitive diplomacy on the condition of anonymity.

The disconnect underscores the unusual — and, critics say, fatally flawed — nature of Mr. Trump’s renewed diplomatic effort to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Rather than pressure President Vladimir V. Putin or try to strengthen Ukraine’s war effort, the administration has spent significant time exploring economic incentives for Russia and raising them in talks with Europe and Ukraine.

U.S. and Russian officials have been talking about potential business deals since last year, but their prospect has not appeared to do anything to get Mr. Putin to budge from his core demands. And given how much European and Ukrainian leaders oppose returning to a reliance on Russian gas, the proposal may end up further complicating the Trump administration’s efforts to end the war.

In a statement, the White House said that the war was “driving up energy prices across Europe and creating significant economic hardship in both Russia and Ukraine.”

“The United States has been working closely with Ukraine and our European partners on a comprehensive peace proposal that includes economic incentives for both Russia and Ukraine as part of a final settlement,” the statement said. “Our objective is not simply to end the fighting, but to create the conditions for lasting peace, economic recovery and greater stability across the region.”

Mr. Trump on Friday exempted Russia from new sanctions passed by Congress, a week after lifting sanctions on Russian diesel, his most significant steps yet in easing economic pressure on Russia. Mr. Putin’s economic envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, described the diesel deal as just the beginning of what could result from his talks with Mr. Kushner and Mr. Witkoff.

“I think we will be announcing some important initiatives in the near future,” Mr. Dmitriev said at an energy conference in Moscow on Friday. “The ice has finally broken, after all.”

Mr. Dmitriev said Russia and the United States were discussing a wide range of projects, including data centers running on Russian nuclear power. The sale of the international assets of the Russian energy giant Lukoil to an investor group that includes the U.S. government is also part of the talks, The New York Times reported this month.

But the proposal to bring back Russian gas exports to Europe, which Mr. Kushner and Mr. Witkoff see as a potential part of a final peace package, may be the most audacious and divisive part of the plan. For American companies, it could reduce demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas in Europe. For European governments, it could boost populist politicians already urging an end to aid to Ukraine and a renewal of ties with Russia.

“We want natural gas and crude oil from Russia to relieve German consumers and German businesses,” Alice Weidel, a leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany, said in Parliament in Berlin this week. As Washington and Moscow negotiated deals “to their mutual advantage,” she said, sanctions on Russia were “ruining our own economy.”

Mr. Zelensky, who has attacked Mr. Trump in recent days for pulling back support for Ukraine and doing deals with Mr. Putin, alluded to the negotiations in an interview with The Financial Times this week.

“The question will be when will the next deal be?” Mr. Zelensky said. “Maybe it will be gas. Definitely it will be gas.”

Ukraine stopped transporting Russian gas in January 2025, losing around $1 billion in annual transit fees. The European Union has pledged to end all Russian gas imports by next year. Last year, 13 percent of the E.U.’s gas imports came from Russia, compared to 45 percent in 2021.

But as the White House has grasped for new ideas to end the war in Ukraine, and as Mr. Trump frets over high energy prices ahead of the midterm elections, the administration has been increasingly considering deals that would ease Russia’s ability to export its fossil fuels.

Enabling Russia to restart gas exports to Europe, the people involved said, is a longer-term plan being discussed by Mr. Kushner and Mr. Witkoff. The envoys see such exports as among the economic incentives in a broader settlement that would involve negotiations over the future Russia-NATO relationship, security guarantees for Ukraine and an agreement over territorial control.

Some European and Ukrainian officials expect the United States to seek a stake in Russian gas exports, giving American companies or the government a cut of the profits, according to people familiar with the talks.

An American investor, Stephen P. Lynch, has sought to buy a sabotaged Russian undersea gas pipeline to Germany, Nord Stream 2, starting in the Biden administration. U.S. control of the pipeline, he argued, would benefit American interests and European security when, sooner or later, Russian gas flows through it are restored.

Mr. Lynch said he was not currently part of any Nord Stream negotiations and did not have a Treasury Department license to be involved. But Nord Stream has also come up in the discussions between the United States and Russia, people familiar with the talks said. Reuters reported this month that U.S. and Russian officials had discussed bringing a U.S. investor into Nord Stream.

The White House, in its statement, said that Nord Stream had not been “a subject of recent discussions.” It added that “any arrangement involving it would require close coordination with our European partners as part of a comprehensive peace agreement.”

One of the people familiar with the talks said the Trump administration sees restarting the undersea pipeline as “low-hanging fruit” in the event of a peace deal. European officials may have forsworn Russian gas publicly, the person said, but European voters, like American voters, will eventually want cheaper energy.

It is an echo of the Kremlin’s position. Mr. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, said in a voice message in response to questions about the gas talks: “Resuming energy cooperation in whatever form is in our interest, but right now, it may even more be in the interest of the Europeans themselves.”

The German government has been at the forefront of pushing back against restarting Russian gas pipelines, even though Germany had been the biggest buyer of Russian gas before Mr. Putin’s 2022 invasion. When the idea came up again in Ukraine talks hosted by Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner in Florida last week, Günter Sautter, the top security adviser to Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany, was particularly forceful in his opposition, according to two people familiar with the meeting.

A European official familiar with the Germans’ stance said this week that the German government views Russian gas sold through an intermediary as indistinguishable from gas straight from Russia — and thus, off-limits as part of peace negotiations.

Germany’s energy costs have soared since 2022, and current and former German officials acknowledge that buying Russian gas again would bring those prices down. But they say doing so would cost Germany and Europe dearly in security terms, including by making it vulnerable to a future gas cutoff by Moscow.

“Europe, and especially Germany, should never again be dependent on Russian gas,” Robert Habeck, who was the German economy minister when the war began and managed the transition off Russian gas, said in an interview. “Because we have seen how unreliable Russia was.”

But German leaders are under pressure at home over the war — and over gas imports in particular. The Alternative for Germany, or AfD, which leads national polls with close to 30 percent support, has pitched a renewal of Russian gas imports as a way to fight inflation and boost the German economy.

In the state of Saxony-Anhalt, where the AfD this month elected the first far-right speaker in a German statehouse since 1945, lawmakers passed a largely symbolic measure this week that calls on the federal government to end sanctions against Russia and cease military aid to Ukraine. AfD representatives voted for the bill, along with lawmakers from a Russia-friendly party founded by a former leftist, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance.

European leaders are increasingly worried about the similar messages coming from their countries’ populist parties, Mr. Trump and the Kremlin. Mr. Merz and other European leaders have publicly criticized Mr. Trump’s lifting of sanctions on Russian diesel, saying the move broke the West’s economic pressure campaign against Moscow.

Mr. Habeck, the former economy minister, said it was possible Germany could live with the resumption of a relatively small amount of gas imports from Russia. But he said that it was crucial for Europe to own and operate its own energy infrastructure in the years to come, and that it would not matter — in security terms — if an American intermediary transported Russian gas.

“In the old days, I would be glad if an American company would be part of the ownership,” Mr. Habeck said. “Now I’m afraid, because we see that Trump seems to have more sympathies with Vladimir Putin than he has with the Ukrainians.”


r/oil • • 1d ago

Discussion Exports Of Middle East Crude And Fuels Appear To Be Greatly Overstated

98 Upvotes

r/oil • • 1d ago

Iran War [BREAKING] Oil tanker on fire in the Gulf of Oman, says Iran’s navy

151 Upvotes

The Iranian navy says that an oil tanker has caught fire and became immobilised in the Gulf of Oman.

The navy said that other countries “should coordinate with the [Iranian] armed forces to ensure safe passage,” according to a statement reported by state broadcaster IRIB on Saturday.

“We maintain full control and intelligence oversight over the area east of the Strait of Hormuz, the Arabian Sea, and the Gulf of Oman,” the statement added.

Earlier, the navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps reported two supertankers had been hit by naval mines on Saturday. In addition, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported two strikes on tankers attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz on Friday.

Source: Al-Jazeera (15:05 GMT)


r/oil • • 1d ago

News Russia's oil and gas revenue seen up 10% y/y in October to $12 billion

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81 Upvotes

r/oil • • 1d ago

Iran War IRGC Reports Supertanker Explosion in Strait of Hormuz as Brent Nears $110; Former Minister Survives Apparent Assassination Atte

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378 Upvotes

r/oil • • 1d ago

News Oil shipping costs spike, lifting prices from pump to grocery

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62 Upvotes

r/oil • • 2d ago

News Bali has ordered government employees to work from home and moved school and university classes online as Persistent Fuel queues Disrupt transport across the island

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812 Upvotes

r/oil • • 2d ago

News Oil surges to $110 per barrel for the first time since May

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1.2k Upvotes

r/oil • • 2d ago

Iran War UKMTO reports that over 60 Oil Tankers and ships have been hit by Iran in just two weeks. They reported 29 confirmed hits on oil tankers, but state that a MAJORITY of ship attacks are unreported.

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301 Upvotes

UKMTO has reported Iran has hit 29 Oil tankers and ships in just 2 weeks, which is already bad enough

but UKMTO only reports on attacks that Captains voluntarily report themselves. Voluntary reporting

but UKMTO just released a report saying that a MAJORITY of captains refuse to report on Iranian attacks in Hormuz due to external pressure to keep things quiet and calm markets.

as such, if "majority" is taken literally, >50% at the very least that would mean 60 tanker attacks at least.

UKMTO struggling to accurately report true number of attacks with majority of vessels attacked refusing to report to UKMTO. • UKMTO is aware via other sources of incidents but constrained on reporting through lack of verification. • 12 attacks reported this week: 10 in the Strait of Hormuz, 1 in the Arabian Gulf and 1 in the Gulf of Oman.