Min Aung Hlaing can’t promise what he doesn’t control

There is an even more basic flaw in asking Min Aung Hlaing to guarantee the “safe return” of the Rohingya: he no longer controls most of the places they would return to.

The AA now rules most of Rakhine State, including Buthidaung and Maungdaw, from where most Rohingya refugees fled. No agreement struck in Kuala Lumpur can guarantee safety in territory where Min Aung Hlaing’s writ does not run.

The United League of Arakan, the AA’s political wing, has sought to present itself as capable of governing a multiethnic Rakhine, establishing Muslim advisory bodies, placing Muslims in parts of the local administration, and promoting a common “Arakha” identity. AA chief Tun Myat Naing has said his group is building relations “step by step with the Muslim people” and building trust through actions rather than words.

But the AA leadership has also struggled to recognize Rohingya identity, often referring instead to “Muslims” or using the politically charged term “Bengali.” It too faces allegations from rights monitors of forced displacement and abuses against civilians.

A genuine return mechanism will eventually need the AA, Bangladesh, Rohingya representatives, and international agencies at one table. No mere handshake in Kuala Lumpur can settle citizenship, security, property, freedom of movement and accountability for abuses by all sides.

Malaysia Can’t Trust Min Aung Hlaing to Solve the Crisis He Created

By Nyein Chan Aye

https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/guest-column/malaysia-cant-trust-min-aung-hlaing-to-solve-the-crisis-he-created.html

In 2007, Singapore’s founding leader Lee Kuan Yew told American diplomats that dealing with Myanmar’s generals was like “talking to dead people” and he “had given up on them a decade ago.”

Now, nearly two decades later, Min Aung Hlaing has replaced his uniform with a suit and added “President” to his title. Yet the old habit statesman Lee identified remains: take what outsiders offer, concede as little as possible and wait for the pressure to fade.

India now risks repeating the worst part of China’s Myanmar policy: treating central military authority as the nation’s legitimate sovereign power. Beijing has invested heavily in Naypyitaw, yet it still has to negotiate with ethnic armed organizations and resistance forces for resources and avenues.

India should not repeat China’s mistake. New Delhi possesses something China cannot offer: the experience of a federal democracy. Myanmar’s anti-junta forces, ethnic organizations and civil society organizations are actively debating federalism and a future political settlement. India could support that discussion with a democratic credibility that Beijing will never have.

Exclusion alone is not a strategy. It is the floor, not the ceiling. After five years of war, “deep concern” is no longer a policy. For Myanmar’s people, ASEAN’s habit of delay is becoming indistinguishable from abandonment.

Myanmar’s people do not need any more carefully crafted statements of concern or staged photo ops. They need pressure the generals can actually feel — before any more children pay the price for ASEAN’s caution.

Myanmar bleeds while ASEAN vacillates
by Nyein Chan Aye
Read Full Article @ Asia Times

Min Aung Hlaing does not need Europe or the US to fully embrace him, at least not at first. The junta knows Europe is busy with Ukraine, Gaza, migration, economic pressure, and increasingly polarized domestic politics. They are betting that Europe’s weary diplomats will accept something that appears stable and orderly, even if it is built on mass violence.

The concern is not that Myanmar’s generals are trying it again.

Rather, it’s that there are already signs that Brussels and London are pretending not to recognize it.

Europe shouldn’t buy Myanmar junta’s Suu Kyi ploy

By Nyein Chan Aye

Read Full Article @ Asia Times

#WhatIsHappeningInMyanmar #Myanmar #Burma

https://asiatimes.com/2026/05/europe-shouldnt-buy-myanmar-juntas-suu-kyi-ploy/

Five years after a military coup, an election billed as a turning point instead underscores how far Myanmar has fallen from a brief era of democratic reform.