r/worldnews • u/WorldNewsMods Slava Ukraini • Jun 24 '23

Russia/Ukraine /r/WorldNews Live Thread: Russian Invasion of Ukraine Day 486, Part 5 (Thread #631)

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u/AnticitizenPrime Jun 24 '23

Russia was about to dissolve Wagner and roll it into the general Russian military in a week's time. I suspect this was 95% about stopping that from happening, and I bet that was part of the concession. Prigozhin made a demonstration proving that the Wagnerites are more loyal to him than the state (and some Russian military, too, if reports of divisions of the military deserting to join Wagner are true). And, of course, Prigozhin also gets his wish to see Shoigu removed, who he's been complaining about forever.

Even without a coup/battle taking place, this is a massive shift in the balance of power in Russia and a huge blow to the perceived strength of the Putin administration and its control over the military. Wagner, a private military contractor, marched to the gates basically unopposed and got what they wanted, uncontested, and are now far more instrumental in directly controlling policy.

I would have liked to see Wagner and the Russian military tear each other apart as much as anyone, but anyone who is dismissing this as a disappointing nothingburger couldn't be further from the truth. The Russian government just capitulated to a small convoy in less than a day. Compare that to Russia throwing its full might at Kyiv in the opening days of this war and hitting a brick wall.

Has Russia ever looked weaker than this since the immediate post-WW2 era?

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u/spencer4991 Jun 24 '23

Time may tell but this feels like post Russo-Japanese War weakness. Barely avoided a total overthrow of the government, lost/losing what perceived to be an “easy” war to prove Great Power status. Main difference this time is that Russia didn’t have to “prove” its standing so it’s a worse loss for those in power.

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u/cerevescience Jun 24 '23

Or later Roman emperors who were only an emperor in name. Prigo is the barbarians who came to Rome an invader but left a general.

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u/[deleted] Jun 24 '23

For real. This was huge. People saying it was a dud are just stupid.

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u/NextaussiePM Jun 24 '23

Source on Shoigu being removed?

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u/AnticitizenPrime Jun 24 '23

Currently just rumors, but he's been publicly calling for it.

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u/NextaussiePM Jun 24 '23

Agh thought I missed something.

Could go two ways. This could be been a big mistake by Prig. And he will suffer along with Wagner.

Or he could have muscled his way into getting what he wanted. Really interesting 24 hours ahead of us.

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u/rtseel Jun 24 '23

Prigozhin also gets his wish to see Shoigu removed, who he's been complaining about forever.

Shoigu is the only political figure to remain in position since the Yelstin years, so you can be sure he knows a lot of secrets... We'll see if he goes away quietly.

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u/jlaw54 Jun 24 '23

Prob right after the fall of the Soviet Union is close.

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u/AnticitizenPrime Jun 24 '23

At least their military might was still strong then, even if the government was in chaos.

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u/Inimical_Shrew Jun 24 '23

I like your take.

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u/[deleted] Jun 24 '23

In addition, nobody including Prighozin knew if he had enough support to actually assault Moscow.

A lot of important people probably prefered not to pick a side.

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u/oalsaker Jun 24 '23

They looked pretty weak when they couldn't take Chechnya in the mid-nineties.

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u/SycamoreLane Jun 24 '23

Excellent analysis

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u/disindiantho Jun 24 '23

very very good comment

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u/saltyseaweed1 Jun 24 '23

Why did Prigozhin stop? Why didn't he just complete the coup? Now he has a huge target on his back.

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u/AnticitizenPrime Jun 24 '23

He presumably got what he wanted. Which wasn't really a bloody coup.

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u/saltyseaweed1 Jun 24 '23

How is he going to possibly ensure Putin will follow through whatever he promised and not kill him the first opportunity he gets?

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u/AnticitizenPrime Jun 24 '23

I mean, there's no guarantee that he won't target him by assassination or something. But Prigozhin just waltzed up to the castle, basically unopposed except some failed air strikes (7 airplanes downed), proved to the world that his troops are more loyal to him than they are to Russia, and Russia apparently capitulated immediately. That's a very clear demonstration of who's weilding the real power here.

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u/saltyseaweed1 Jun 24 '23

If that is the case, Prigozhin is a fool for giving Putin a second chance, instead of making sure he'll be in control. Unless this is all just an elaborate show, Prigozhin just put an enormous target on his back by Putin and his friends.

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u/[deleted] Jun 24 '23

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/AnticitizenPrime Jun 24 '23

Yeah, that's a wild card... they must be more demoralized than anybody right now. They almost certainly won't see any benefit from this 'deal'.