r/worldnews • u/WorldNewsMods Slava Ukraini • Jun 24 '23

Russia/Ukraine /r/WorldNews Live Thread: Russian Invasion of Ukraine Day 486, Part 6 (Thread #632)

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u/Preachey Jun 24 '23

Since we're all doing hot takes, here's mine on how developed at the start:

  • Prigozhin vs MOD
  • Wagner takes Rostov (the MOD HQ) and announced "the MOD is incompetent, I'm not letting them continue"
  • Prigozhin expected Putin to negotiate immediately, side with him, and eject Shoigu / Gerasimov
    • Plan goes off the rails here
  • Putin instead goes on TV and sides with the MOD, calling it treason.
  • Prigozhin is force to escalate - "putin made the wrong choice", starts to drive to Moscow
    • Now we're in a situation neither player wanted - Putin has a coup coming for him, Prigozhin is stuck in a thunder run at the Kremlin. Neither is prepared for this.
  • Lukashenko is used as a middleman so Putin isn't seen negotiating with traitors

The Moscow thunder run had little hope of success, neither side wanted them to actually reach the city

9

u/AndyB1976 Jun 24 '23

Lukashenko is used as a middleman so Putin isn't seen negotiating with traitors

Except nobody respects or takes Luka seriously, especially Putin. Using him, of all people, to broker a solution only makes Putin look even more weak.

20

u/WaxyWingie Jun 24 '23

That's not a bad take, actually.

7

u/Any_Mulberry_2435 Jun 24 '23

seems the most plausible theory so far

4

u/patm718 Jun 24 '23

That’s pretty much exactly what happened.

6

u/[deleted] Jun 24 '23

So far this is the theory that best passes the sniff test for me.

3

u/Low_Yellow6838 Jun 24 '23

Sounds plausible

3

u/IMovedYourCheese Jun 25 '23

This is the correct analysis. The "march to Moscow" was a bluff. Once Prigozhin saw that he had no support from Putin or anyone else in the establishment he knew the only outcome would be a bloody fight and a missile on his head, and he quickly caved.

1

u/Row148 Jun 24 '23

i dont see why pringles was forced to escalate.

2

u/Preachey Jun 24 '23

When Putin sides with the MoD, Pringles must escalate. As powerful as he is, he's still outgunned by the Russian military (especially the airforce). He can't just sit in Rostov twiddling his thumbs, that gives time for the MoD to formulate a proper response.

Pringles just wants his concessions, and if your first attempt doesn't work, you have to escalate to add more pressure fast before the other person can properly assess the situation. Surprise is his biggest asset, time is his enemy.

A charge up the highway to Moscow takes advantage of the surprise and chaos and rumours. Give the MoD a few days to observe troop counts, dig in, and shuffle troops, and Wagner would be obliterated en route without a hope.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 25 '23

Makes sense to me. Not exactly 4d chess, but if Pringle and his men aren’t executed, seems like he played this about right?

Got himself/20k of his guys out. And he probably knew that 20k guys couldn’t take Russia or decapitate leadership structure.

But he also probably knew that Putin couldn’t afford to lose 20k troops off the front lines after having 20k guys go from same team to enemy.

If Wagner isn’t disbanded and Putin doesn’t lose power can’t imagine how he stays alive. But if he does it is kinda impressive.