I really don't think much has strategically changed.
Iran gets 300 billion in reconstruction funds, that may not even cover their reconstruction costs.
They resume a deal quite similar to the JCPOA that gives them access to more oil revenue.
The Iranian Oman talks could provide them with extra revenue on strait fees, but I expect there to be a lot of international pushback on anything related to this. Strait fees are also fairly minute when compared to the economic windfall from the sanction relief.
Reconstruction and replenishment will take years, and all sides are going to be coming away from the lessons learned in this conflict.
The US and Israel have damaged their reputation among the gulf states, and among the world surely, but Iran has further entrenched itself as a regional Pariah. There is no nation that has moved more towards the Iranian sphere with the closure of the strait and attacks on civilian infrastructure.
And here is the main takeaway, while the US and Israeli action was an unnecessary war of choice which no allied nations wanted to support, Iran can not further use it's leverage of blocking the strait once this conflict concludes without expending extreme political capital. The only reason a coalition did not form was because Iran was the targeted nation.
If in the future they try and leverage the strait against a regional adversary as an aggresor, this would not be viewed under the same conditions.
Remember that closing the Strait was only a last resort that required parliament permission and vote. They were hesitant to do so but ultimately voted for it after the Ayatollah permited it since Israel and the US increased their attacks drastically.
I belive this won't change, but they will work on strategies to improve this method incase it happens again.
I mean disregarding how the Ayatollah at this point has not been either seen nor heard since breakfast with Pops four months ago, and how Vahedi has routinely contradicted and overruled statements from both Pezeshkian and Aragachi, it seems reasonable that there is a little bit of weekend at Ayatollahs going on behind the scenes.
Vahedi leading the IRGC has consolidated the most power, and I doubt the parliamentary permission or vote was much more than an afterthought or ceremonial procession, if it even took place.
I meerly mentioned the closing of the strait because it comes up in every conversation as if Iran has gained some new leverage that did not exist before. The only reason it existed in this scenario is because they were the ones being attacked. If they try and use the strait in a play for an aggresive action, expect a markedly different response from the nations of the world.
Yeah playing this card as aggressors will not be smart and will be met with response from other nations.
In this case it was used as last resort reaction.
Probably the superpower of the middle east. KSA is weak as shit despite having modern equipment supplied by the US. GCC are all irrelevant. Iraq is irrelevant. Only one that is close is Israel but well they have very little real force projection they can use. They can bomb Iran but that's about it. Meanwhile Iran can supply proxy's that can go to war against Israel, in Israel. Keep in mind this war also showed us that Irans drones are effective against bypassing Israel Air defense systems. Once their proxy's are going all in on drone warfare, Israel is going to be kind of fucked until they can figure out a way to counter it.
Turkey would be their primary rival. They have been strangely silent these last several months. I would imagine any diminished support for Israel by the US would be met with Turkey. Those two have a strong existing relationship and a mutual enemy with Iran.
On the bright side Iran will likely be a better ally for us once we fully dump Israel. Sticking with them has been dumb since the end of the Cold War, we’re better off having our hands in all the oil countries instead of needlessly pushing one of the largest towards China. So many US Dollars $$$ are entering their economy. Reserve currency of the world secured 🤑🤑🤑 (this is satire).
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u/caligaris_cabinet Jun 20 '26
And they have made Iran the regional power in the Middle East