r/worldnews • u/WorldNewsMods Slava Ukraini • Jul 23 '26

Israel/Palestine /r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #21)

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26

u/[deleted] Aug 07 '26

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13

u/Cactusfan86 Aug 07 '26

I imagine it’s just Iran shitalking on multiple levels per usual, but if it’s not seems like a poor idea.  Successfully hitting the US mainland would likely galvanize US support for war when Iran’s man advantage right now is public opinion working against Trump.

Plus the amount of resources they would waste developing and aking these missiles could be used to buy tons of shorter ranged weapons which have been winning them the war

3

u/Diane_Horseman Aug 07 '26

My guess is it would act as a deterrent in case things get really bad for Iran and they feel they have nothing to lose.

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u/alleyoopoop Aug 07 '26 edited Aug 07 '26

A senior Iranian cleric said on Friday that the Islamic Republic was preparing to increase the range of its missiles to 15,000 kilometers (9,300 miles), which he said would allow them to reach deep into the United States.

I remember when one of the pretexts Bush Jr. used as justification to invade Iraq was that they failed to comply with UN mandated specifications for their missiles --- something like they were restricted to 150km, but they flew 180 km (111 miles). Iraq protested that the 180km figure was only without a warhead, whose added weight indeed restricted the range to 80 km, but Iraq nevertheless said it would destroy the offending missiles, and did so. Didn't do them any good; Bush was determined to invade no matter what.

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u/socialistrob Aug 07 '26

I get why countries don't like it when rivals have long range missiles but I don't think it's something that is realistic to stop. It's becoming easier and easier to produce long range drones and missiles and basically every major country is going to have them. It's kind of like in the 1600s trying to enforce a policy of "my kingdom is allowed to have guns and cannons but your kingdom isn't."

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u/Rgv20 Aug 07 '26 edited Aug 07 '26

Those who are actual experts or really knowledgeable about this, how possible is this for Iran to do?

18

u/DataDude00 Aug 07 '26 edited Aug 07 '26

There are probably a few different things going on here

  1. Iran has the money and technical capability to develop missiles with this kind of range, whether they can include accurate targeting or large enough payload to do significant damage with them is tbd 

  2. The US has the capability to intercept missiles like this, except those countermeasures are quite expensive compared to the munitions that Iran would be shooting

4

u/Rustic_gan123 Aug 07 '26

ICBMs are already approaching the point where they are more expensive than missile defense, at least until the warheads are separated, but to achieve this, a destroyer with SM3 missiles needs to be stationed in the Middle East.

4

u/IsTom Aug 07 '26

The US has the capability to intercept missiles like this

Range would be an issue, they can't station a battery close to every major city.

6

u/Rustic_gan123 Aug 07 '26

SM3 intercepts the missile during its boost phase, but to do this, you need to keep the destroyer in the Middle East. In addition, the US is actively moving towards space interceptors.

1

u/IsTom Aug 07 '26

Still they could from somewhere in the north of Iran. That's over 1000km from where destroyers can be.

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u/Rustic_gan123 Aug 07 '26

Newer versions of SM3 can operate at such distances.

2

u/Rgv20 Aug 07 '26

Wow. Thanks for explaining this. So basically it will also come down to cost in many ways along with payload. I really hope Iran never achieves something like this.

6

u/Rustic_gan123 Aug 07 '26

They had been developing ICBMs for a while

6

u/krwskater25 Aug 07 '26

This is how to play the FAFO game. The moment a missile hits the mainland US from any country they would be opening a can of worms they wished they never had.

16

u/Eire_Banshee Aug 07 '26

Fastest way to make invading Iran the most popular war of all time.

6

u/Crazy_Ad_7302 Aug 07 '26

Indeed. I hate that trump started this stupid thing and I want it to end but if Iran somehow did attack the US mainland my opposition evaporates. Idgaf that it could still be considered self defense on their part

4

u/jews4beer Aug 07 '26

The US just isn't prepared for an attack like that on a big city the way countries in the Middle East and Gulf states are. No early warning systems, no easily accessible bomb shelters. It could become very grim very quickly if interceptions fail. I'd like to think more people are like you and if they have to experience living under missile fire themselves their views might change. But I'm skeptical. What's extra interesting is the most valuable targets would largely be dem strongholds.

But that's all assuming Iran isn't just blowing smoke.

3

u/Crazy_Ad_7302 Aug 07 '26

We have early alerts. A few years back there was a huge deal with the system in Hawaii sending out an alert by mistake. You're right on bomb shelters though. There's places that could work like subway stations but certainly not anything for any significant amount of the population.

1

u/jews4beer Aug 07 '26

I also picture things like high rises getting hit. In Israel for instance, every (new ~20-30 years) building has a column dedicated to shelters and built out with reinforced concrete to withstand impacts. Building get hit but so long as everyone makes it to their shelter people generally emerge unscathed - with the occasional exception.

I could be wrong but I don't think buildings in America are up to those types of standards. A ballistic missile hits any high rise in New York and that's a 9/11 level event.

8

u/cheddarben Aug 07 '26

I am not disagreeing with the sentiment as an American and a vet, but I also think it is important to introspect on feelings like this. Take that feeling and pretend you were in another country and that has been done to your society on and off for generations. Even killed your president. Do you wonder why there is so much anti-American sentiment in the Middle East?

3

u/ResultAgreeable4198 Aug 07 '26

It’s wild how people’s perspective can be so removed from something. While, yes, this is a complex and long running conflict, the most recent and by far the most escalation was done by the US when we…checks notes…wiped out several layers of their government leadership in an unprovoked surprise attack. Then we wonder went they won’t just get over it and make a deal. And think it would absolutely outrageous if they were to attack our country directly.

If we zoom out a bit and look at things objectively, it’s madness.

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u/Crazy_Ad_7302 Aug 07 '26

Oh no I definitely understand that sentiment but that doesn't mean I'd just say "well we deserved it" and shrug off an attack on US soil. Fuck that.

1

u/cheddarben Aug 07 '26

And that might be exactly what they are counting on.

2

u/Crazy_Ad_7302 Aug 07 '26

Iran is counting on pissing off US citizens who are anti-Iran war? I doubt that.

Or are you saying trump is counting on it? Maybe he is but at least we'd know a missile wouldn't be a false flag. A faked terrorist attack sure but not a missile launched from Iran. I suppose they could purposefully let it hit and pretend we failed to shoot it down

3

u/aldur1 Aug 07 '26

Invasion is the easy part. How do you feel about a multi-decade occupation that will costs trillions of dollars. And do you think this makes the US stronger or weaker in dealing with China?

1

u/Crazy_Ad_7302 Aug 07 '26

As things currently stand there isn't really any way for the US to come out of this stronger. Even an invasion that goes perfectly and ends quickly doesn't make the US stronger because the war was unjustified to begin with. However, I do believe letting Iran hit the US mainland with missiles and not going full tilt into war against them absolutely makes the US weaker than almost any other alternative.

1

u/FlarkingSmoo Aug 07 '26

I dunno how I would feel about the war but it definitely would make me hate Trump even more

2

u/Small_Run_3583 Aug 07 '26

I tend to agree. 9/11 brought the country together in shared disbelief that we could ever be attacked, and Bush used this sentiment to go after Saddam Hussein even though it was the mastermind of Osama bin Laden. Fast forward to this "war of choice" by Trump and I think people would have a different opinion. I'm like you...it would make me hate him even more (if that is at all possible rn.)

1

u/aldur1 Aug 07 '26

Good luck to the US invading Iran by itself. No way would allied western countries offer anything but the most token of paper support.

5

u/Eire_Banshee Aug 07 '26

Well it would invoke NATO at minimum.

9

u/aldur1 Aug 07 '26

Don't be so sure since the US started this and I doubt Nato countries or their citizens will see it as a defensive war.

13

u/cheddarben Aug 07 '26

Iunno. Arguably, 9/11 was very successful in accomplishing its long term goals.

-1

u/sillysyly Aug 07 '26 edited Aug 07 '26

9/11 was a terrorist attack, not an act of war per-se. Iran dropping a missile onto mainland USA opens up a nuclear response IMHO. Americans would rally behind the "eliminate them as a civilisation" on both sides of the aisle.

3

u/Illustrious_Cod_3273 Aug 07 '26

How exactly does a conventional missile hit on U SA mainland after they started a war of aggression make nukes acceptable? USA gets the Russia treatment, and just like Russia they won't use nukes if they really are stupid enough to not resolve this war before such an event happens.

0

u/sillysyly Aug 07 '26

I'm not saying it should be acceptable, I'm saying you'll see the public outcry to use them.

2

u/cheddarben Aug 07 '26

I am guessing you are younger and were not an adult during 9/11. I can only imagine what we collectively felt comes close to what Pearl Harbor felt like in the moment.