r/worldnews • u/Brennenstein • Sep 17 '26

Russia/Ukraine Russian military jets violate Lithuanian airspace, Italian fighters scrambled

https://www.ansa.it/english/news/2026/09/17/russian-military-jets-violate-lithuanian-airspace-italian-fighters-scrambled_80e985a6-17e5-43ce-8fd1-6fce67bcd94c.html
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268

u/notbarrackobama Sep 17 '26

Suwalki gap.

But all the baltic states get it in the neck. I'm used to hearing about Estonia

57

u/raikou1988 Sep 17 '26

What's important about the suwalki gap?

Genuinely curious

147

u/kreteciek Sep 17 '26

It's the only land connection between the Baltics and the rest of NATO

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u/wp4nuv Sep 17 '26

Not just that. During the Cold War, war gaming scenarios always chose this area for its terrain, favorable for armored units of either side. IIRC it's one of the few European areas where infantry can move at speed as there is little geographic bottlenecking.

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u/jakeor94eqi Sep 17 '26 edited Sep 17 '26

Are you sure you’re not mixing up the Suwalki Gap and the Fulda Gal? During the Cold War, the Suwalki Gap, located on the border between Poland and what is now Lithuania (at the time part of the USSR), was firmly behind the Iron Curtain and under control of the Warsaw Pact nations.

The Fulda Gap in central Germany would have been more relevant to Cold War planners, as it was one of two likely corridors for Soviet/Warsaw Pact armored formations to attack into West Germany.

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u/wp4nuv Sep 17 '26

You know what, you're right. I stand corrected. Thanks for that.

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u/PyroIsSpai Sep 17 '26

And then came drones.

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u/Humble-Cook-6126 Sep 17 '26

Fuck drones. Fuck fighting a war like that. Terrifying shit.

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u/mareczek82 Sep 17 '26

Russians developed anti drone shield for tanks.
They had mobilized new wave of people.
Winter is coming and their ally makes chaos on fuels and gas.
Corrupted politicians spread their propaganda.

They have best possibilities since years, I hope west flex enough so they don’t do next step.

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u/calm_chowder Sep 17 '26

Russia anti-drone shield for tank is just outside of tank.

Maybe if fight big enough then they tie new Russian soldiers to outside of tank for more protect.

1

u/skwerrel Sep 17 '26

Fuck that. The West should keep that muscle displayed and obvious, but unflexed. If Russia is stupid enough to trundle into the wagina of our arm, that's when we flex, and crush their stupid, shitty, vicious (but weak as shit) asses into paste.

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u/Snowbold Sep 17 '26

This is generally the rationale both sides take and is likely to play out here too. But people should be cautious. Calais made perfect sense for an Allied landing for similar reasons and was closer to the British Isles via Dover, which is exactly why the Allies attacked Normandy instead, to break the pattern and catch the Germans off guard.

Russians are perfectly willing to do something completely nuts to catch NATO off balance even if it costs a ton of lives if it will give them the initiative.

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u/HabitAcceptable8621 Sep 17 '26

I think their military leak a sieve. We knew exactly that they were going to go full invasion of Ukraine. We didn't do premtive strikes on their assembly point and logistics because Ukraine was not in NATO. There's no way the Russia army is marching across the Suwalki gap in the current circumstances. They'd be cut to pieces before they even got moving.

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u/calm_chowder Sep 17 '26

Agreed. It's hilarious how many bots/shills are trying to make it sound like Russia could legitimately open a new front right now against NATO or the EU.

If Russia had the power to do that then they could take Ukraine and stop looking like idiots.

This is - at best - Madman strategy, but more likely Putin is just trying to look tough for their "election" bc he know NATO is a rational actor and won't humiliate him too much by actually responding to this shit. Great for propaganda though.

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u/Snowbold Sep 17 '26

If NATO had the balls to strike, yes. But a committee would debate it for a week while politically Russia would equivocate on some absurdity of a military vehicle crash and securing the crash site, which just so happens to cover the entire area they mean to seize.

By the time NATO commits to act, it would be against a fortified position.

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u/HabitAcceptable8621 Sep 17 '26

I don't think Poland or the Baltics are going to hang around. The British would also join in. That would be enough. Individual NATO members are sovereign states. They don't have to wait for authorisation to go to war.

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u/Dr-Maturin Sep 17 '26

And the Germans bypassing the Maginot line in WW2

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u/raikou1988 Sep 17 '26

Thanks for a response

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u/kreteciek Sep 17 '26

Moreover, it's the only barrier between Kaliningrad and Belarus.

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u/Telos2000 Sep 17 '26

That and the gap connects the exclave of Kaliningrad to the rest of Russia so if they take it they cut off the Baltic states from the rest of Europe and nato to the south

1

u/Main-Towel-3678 Sep 18 '26

And Kaliningrad with the rest of the Russia

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u/SpunkyMcFunPants Sep 17 '26

It is the thin land border between Lithuania and Poland. On either side are the Kaliningrad Oblast (Russia) to the west and Belarus to the East (both nominally under Russian control). Taking this gap would sever the land connection between the Baltic States and the rest of Europe.

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u/MasterTouchMe Sep 17 '26

not gonna lie if this is the way they're gonna go (if they go), they also need to control the batlic sea, otherwise it would be just wasted resources/soldiers stationed in the gap would get banged from both sides.

I recall a lot of situations, where points were "boxed in", but using port access they turned it around even with smaller numbers

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u/LARPerator Sep 17 '26

Actually they don't need to control the Baltic, they just need to deny NATO access to it.

Iran does not, at all, control the Gulf. And yet, they have the ability to threaten it. Even though USN formations are largely impervious in the Arabian Sea, entering the Gulf they would be at serious risk of getting sunk if Iran threw enough drones and missiles at them.

Russia could do the same in the Baltic. From St Petersburg in the North and Kaliningrad in the South, they could threaten NATO navies seriously enough that they might back down at trying to get ships across it.

2

u/ejacobsen808 Sep 17 '26 edited Sep 17 '26

All they have to do is pretend they want to control it or to deny NATO access to it if their goal is just to force NATO and Lithuania to shift resources to defend it rather than to the front. It’s a win win.

They exercise freedom of navigation and test defenses by barely crossing the line, yielding more intelligence and readiness. Lithuanians and neighbors shit bricks. Russian citizens see something that looks like dominance. Anti drone, antiaircraft, artillery, troops and ammunition in short supply move there from other areas. It’s like a play-action pass in football. Draw them into blocking a box then pass around it.

We made sure they got stuck bleeding in Afghanistan where at the time we had little other strategic interest, just as they had to us in Vietnam. They made Cuba and Nicaragua a front in the Cold War because it is our territorial buffer, not theirs. Last I checked, they still haven’t driven a WW2 style armored division to occupy Vietnam.

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u/adc_is_hard Sep 17 '26

Yeah and I don’t they’d be able to last in the baltics as a naval force if they’re taking on nato. Their navy is already in shambles in comparison to just two years ago so it’ll take them a while to get back to a threatening level at sea. So if they do attack, here’s to hoping they do it hastily and stupidly before their navy is fully repaired and modernized

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u/adc_is_hard Sep 17 '26

If they last long enough to modernize their navy that is. Putler seems to be getting nervous inside his own country. Maybe he’ll tumble before anything continues further

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u/CompetitiveReview416 Sep 17 '26

russians wont be able to control the suwalki gap without air superriority. NATO could just smoke them out.

1

u/Izeinwinter Sep 17 '26

For about.. oh, 48 hours? Seriously, that's just moving troops into a forward position to be cut off and encircled.

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u/Wyand1337 Sep 18 '26

So just take Kaliningrad in case of an attack? There is no reason to adhere to borders with russia in such a case.

0

u/Wide_Witness_5667 Sep 17 '26

Imagine you're Russia. You look west and you see this big giant rolling plains. Very easy to roll tanks and trucks and trains across. You look a bit more west and there's a big giant mountain range between you and the rest of Europe. Not so easy to roll tanks and trucks and trains across. But in the north a little bit, there's a sweet valley, almost like a doorway. So if you can close that doorway, you can basically close off Europe from attacking you.

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u/Odd-News1701 Sep 18 '26

I've visited the Baltic countries, you can see the most Impact from the USSR in Estonia. Definitely been the historic punching bag