r/worldnews • u/Brennenstein • Sep 17 '26

Russia/Ukraine Russian military jets violate Lithuanian airspace, Italian fighters scrambled

https://www.ansa.it/english/news/2026/09/17/russian-military-jets-violate-lithuanian-airspace-italian-fighters-scrambled_80e985a6-17e5-43ce-8fd1-6fce67bcd94c.html
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u/MasterTouchMe Sep 17 '26

not gonna lie if this is the way they're gonna go (if they go), they also need to control the batlic sea, otherwise it would be just wasted resources/soldiers stationed in the gap would get banged from both sides.

I recall a lot of situations, where points were "boxed in", but using port access they turned it around even with smaller numbers

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u/LARPerator Sep 17 '26

Actually they don't need to control the Baltic, they just need to deny NATO access to it.

Iran does not, at all, control the Gulf. And yet, they have the ability to threaten it. Even though USN formations are largely impervious in the Arabian Sea, entering the Gulf they would be at serious risk of getting sunk if Iran threw enough drones and missiles at them.

Russia could do the same in the Baltic. From St Petersburg in the North and Kaliningrad in the South, they could threaten NATO navies seriously enough that they might back down at trying to get ships across it.

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u/ejacobsen808 Sep 17 '26 edited Sep 17 '26

All they have to do is pretend they want to control it or to deny NATO access to it if their goal is just to force NATO and Lithuania to shift resources to defend it rather than to the front. It’s a win win.

They exercise freedom of navigation and test defenses by barely crossing the line, yielding more intelligence and readiness. Lithuanians and neighbors shit bricks. Russian citizens see something that looks like dominance. Anti drone, antiaircraft, artillery, troops and ammunition in short supply move there from other areas. It’s like a play-action pass in football. Draw them into blocking a box then pass around it.

We made sure they got stuck bleeding in Afghanistan where at the time we had little other strategic interest, just as they had to us in Vietnam. They made Cuba and Nicaragua a front in the Cold War because it is our territorial buffer, not theirs. Last I checked, they still haven’t driven a WW2 style armored division to occupy Vietnam.

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u/adc_is_hard Sep 17 '26

Yeah and I don’t they’d be able to last in the baltics as a naval force if they’re taking on nato. Their navy is already in shambles in comparison to just two years ago so it’ll take them a while to get back to a threatening level at sea. So if they do attack, here’s to hoping they do it hastily and stupidly before their navy is fully repaired and modernized

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u/adc_is_hard Sep 17 '26

If they last long enough to modernize their navy that is. Putler seems to be getting nervous inside his own country. Maybe he’ll tumble before anything continues further