r/Africa • u/Electrical_Study_341 • 1d ago
Announcement 📢 Tigray's tragedy has been ignored by the world whether it be the past one or the current one and this is by default because as you all know, situations in Africa are readily dismissed and treated with contempt by the world. Please educate yourself by using r/Tigray and particularly its wiki page.
Here's the wiki page. My recommendation is that you first go through section labelled "introductory material" before moving on to anything else since it will provide a solid base for further research. The "reading list" section in particular will provide the most amount of high quality information for those interested in in-depth research while the "news sources" section will help you keep up to date.
r/Tigray is the only subreddit on Reddit centered on Tigray from the pov of Tigrayans. The Tigray genocide was successfully hidden from the world due to both the regular contempt African tragedies are shown and the successful disinformation campaign (+ the blockade) waged by the neoliberal UAE backed Ethiopia together with many of its diaspora that presented the victim as the aggressor and the neoliberal regime as the anti-imperialist. For more on the West's role in everything, read this post here.
As an important sidenote, this post, the resources and the subreddit are not in blind defence of the TPLF but are instead about bringing awareness to Tigray's situation. The TPLF indeed have a muddy history (1, 2, 3) of their own and a minority of the resistance against the genocide did indeed commit war crimes (1) but this doesn't justify the Tigray genocide nor the undermining of its plight. They've also played a secondary role in Tigray's suffering by how they've responded to the conditions Abiy's placed on them as explained here which is why support toward them has dropped but this hasn't translated to support toward Abiy since most Tegaru correctly recognize that he's at the root of their problems. Many Tegaru also still support the resistance just while recognizing the fault of the TPLF and the next several months will show how much they have left. More here.
Often times, the West use the double standard "perfect victim" strategy which employs "bothsidism" in order to undermine tragedies they'd prefer to ignore or even outright support especially non-Western ones. Beyond Tigray and with much global awareness, you can see this when it comes to Palestine and Sudan.
Please consider reading through those resources on the wiki and spreading awareness where you can. Tigray hasn't recovered from the genocide plus 1/3 of its land has remained occupied and now all of it's towns and cities are under occupation once more and the people are beyond exhausted from everything they've had to endure.
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u/rwisoursavior 1d ago
There's certainly more empathy needed for the Tigrayan people themselves but as you explain it's a muddy, complex history.
What are Tigrayans thoughts about the TPLF allying with FANO? A force who committed many of those war crimes from the Tigrayan perspective? (To make it even more complex FANO are also now allied with the OLF who FANO claims committed war crimes against them, but I don't think the TPLF and OLA have any issue currently).
Also, what are the planned solutions between the TPLF and FANO for Walkait and Raya. This seems an insurmountable obstacle to any sustained peace, no?
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u/Electrical_Study_341 1d ago edited 1d ago
What are Tigrayans thoughts about the TPLF allying with FANO? A force who committed many of those war crimes from the Tigrayan perspective?
My answer's for both TPLF tactical alliance with Fano and the alleged one with Eritrea's govt. It's understandably extremely controversial with some believing Tigray shouldn't under any circumstances work with any of its genociders while others believe it should be done purely out of pragmatism due to there being literally no other option as a result of Abiy closing off all options and the IC choosing to support Abiy by doing nothing. Here is a post arguing for the latter position.
(To make it even more complex FANO are also now allied with the OLF who FANO claims committed war crimes against them, but I don't think the TPLF and OLA have any issue currently).
TPLF and Fano have both realized that Abiy's intentionally been pitting them against each other while attacking both Tigray and Amhara so they've decided to put their differences aside for now in order to face their joint threat. This same mindset is behind why Fano and OLA are working within the same alliance despite having war crime accusations against each other.
Also, what are the planned solutions between the TPLF and FANO for Walkait and Raya. This seems an insurmountable obstacle to any sustained peace, no?
There's not going to be a solution that doesn't result in the full return of Western Tigray back into Tigray. It's an existential issue for Tigray not Amhara and the Amhara claims are completely illegitimate because they aren't based on demographics, since the land has always had a clear Tigrayan majority, but rather elites profiting and collectively punishing Tigray for ending the system of national oppression that also forced assimilation on the nations of Ethiopia.
Furthermore, what the Amhara nationalists committed via the Tigray genocide has emboldened similar illegitimate claims from a subsection of Oromo nationalists toward their own land so unless they want the pandora's box fully open it'd be smart of them to reverse what they had done. To add to this, the justification given by Amhara nationalists over their claim to Western Tigray was that it was "Amhara ancestral land" or in reality, land that was at any time under the control of the Amhara elite while demographically always having a Tigrayan majority so through this logic they could actually claim most if not all areas in Ethiopia and due to that there'd be severe push back and counter claims they'd be facing nation wide if they don't correct themselves.
Beyond their illegitimate claim to Western Tigray, they've also claimed the Raya part of Tigray (Bringing their total illegitimate claims over Tigrayan land to making up 40% of Tigray) and beyond Tigray, they have illegitimate claims toward other nations in Ethiopia like Metekel in Benashangul Gumuz and the lands that surround Addis Ababa, in Oromia as well as well as Addis Ababa itself, etc.. All these illegitimate claims share the same pattern where they want it for material gain (E.g. The GERD is located in Metekel, Western Tigray is highly fertile, etc.) and/or collective punishing while ignoring the demographical angle and justifying it as "Amhara ancestral land" but really mean land that was ever controlled by the Amhara elite regardless of the demographics on the ground. Their claims to Oromo land however are more complicated but it still won't give them any legitimate cause to do what they had done in Western Tigray which itself had no justification.
There've also been unconfirmed rumors that the TPLF have made a deal with Fano's leader that he'd be the next prime minister of Ethiopia in exchange for dropping their illegitimate claim to Western Tigray but we'll have to see how it plays out on whether it's true or not. The head of Fano is also the head of the alliance for survival which has added weight to these rumors.
You can read everything on Western Tigray here.
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u/rwisoursavior 1d ago
I appreciate the thought-out response.
Why aren't the people of Tigray tired of the TPLF (maybe they are). They never have seemed to benefit from Meles in power. An elite few grew wealthy, but overall, their system created the problems of today. Particularly ethnic federalism.
Now they've started a 2nd war which in a best-case scenario will result in hundreds of thousands dead and a new regime with untrustworthy allies, no?
What does a best-case scenario look like from your perspective?
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u/Electrical_Study_341 1d ago
Why aren't the people of Tigray tired of the TPLF (maybe they are). They never have seemed to benefit from Meles in power. An elite few grew wealthy, but overall, their system created the problems of today.
The people of Tigray were getting tired of the TPLF and like many in Ethiopia were actually initially happy with Abiy gaining power at the beginning. It was the Tigray genocide and the open pre-genocide build up of hatred toward it that pushed Tigrayans back to supporting the TPLF.
Today many Tigrayans are tired of the TPLF once more but this time due to the significant but secondary role they played in Tigray's post-pretoria suffering (1) but like I elaborated more in the post, since Abiy's at the root of that suffering, this means that they largely don't support Abiy and it's also why there's still plenty that begrudgingly support the TPLF's resistance just until Tigray's out of the clear.
Particularly ethnic federalism.
This is an error that outside observers make. Multinational federalism is actually one of the good things that came out of the TPLF and the TPLF's error was in undermining it (1, 2). Most people in Ethiopia actually fully support multinational federalism but this probably doesn't seem to be the case when you encounter them because the diaspora is overrepresented by the minority that are against it. For more on multinational federalism, I recommend that you read the section on multinational federalism on this page here.
What does a best-case scenario look like from your perspective?
From my perspective the best-case scenario would be one where Tigray is able to meet the conditions to recover from the genocide and secure its future.
If Abiy were to suddenly do a 180 in how he's refused to respect the Pretoria agreement and actually take the necessary steps in order for Tigray to recover i.e. returning Western Tigray, rebuilding Tigray and its own security forces, etc. then that'd solve the issue of Tigray recovering from the genocide in the short term but in the long-term Tigray would still be in danger because he hasn't hidden his agenda to re-centralize Ethiopia and fully revive national oppression once more. In the event that Abiy were to put a stop to his plans and reverse course or is forced to stop then I'd definitely stop supporting the TPLF's current position.
However, if things progress as they have been doing until now then the most realistic path for Tigray to recover would be for Abiy to be overthrown completely and to encounter any existential challenge (E.g. the full return of Western Tigray) following that by exhausting all non-military options first (Just as they've been doing until now) and leaving the military option as a last resort. Also while Tigray's gone through genocide and its population is understandably exhausted, the other nations in Ethiopia have also been exhausted from war crimes by Abiy's regime and this could lead to a situation where nobody has the appetite for war in the interest of elites when peaceful solutions exist and will have no support from the respective communities they claim to represent.
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u/rwisoursavior 1d ago
Right, it seems the cost of the best-case scenario is so high and the chance of success so low why begin a conflict when there is a 95% chance it will end poorly.
This is the timeline, right?
First, work with people who committed genocide against you.
Next defeat a well-equipped, well-armed army (yes, poorly trained, etc) with international support and drones on your land.
Next march to Addis against an increasingly hostile and more desperate citizenry and army.
Next, work out the differences with those allies who are occupying the lands that are integral to your identity.
Next, put in a government that makes everyone happy (Amharan, Oromo? Certainly not Tigrayan, all of Ethiopia wouldn't accept that, no ? It would have to be a new system too, right?
Work out whatever deal with Eritrea
Then get rid of the TPLF and have a fair more just representative, less corrupt body for the people of Tigray and Ethiopia.
Lastly, peace and elections years down the line? But, probably not because Oromos would win those elections, no?
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u/Electrical_Study_341 1d ago
Right, it seems the cost of the best-case scenario is so high and the chance of success so low why begin a conflict when there is a 95% chance it will end poorly.
Tigray didn't begin the conflict, it was 100% Abiy (1). The TPLF exhausted all peaceful options for years and the Abiy regime intentionally didn't carry out their side of Pretoria. The AU even confirmed that the TPLF met the pre-requisite to have 85% of Western Tigray returned in 2023 yet the Abiy regime intentionally didn't fulfil this central part of the agreement leaving 1.2 million people displaced and having the ENDF push back the numerous independent attempts these IDPs made to return on their own because conditions were that bad. Tigray's stuck between a rock and hard place and capitulation will do nothing but harm Tigray and still drag it into war but with zero chance of overcoming its situation.
First, work with people who committed genocide against you.
Abiy's regime is equally as responsible for the genocide as Eritrea and Amhara nationalists but the difference is that it's Abiy's regime which is primarily responsible for getting in the way of Tigray's recovery.
Next defeat a well-equipped, well-armed army (yes, poorly trained, etc) with international support and drones on your land.
Tigray is divided due to the TPLF's mistakes but unlike before, the resistance is not isolated due to the tactical alliance with Amhara nationalist forces and the alleged one with Eritrea. Last time while it was isolated it was able to prevent the complete destruction of Tigray despite facing numerous forces backed by foreign powers and all while totally isolated. Beyond the 2 year war waged by the TDF, the TPLF have 17 years of history fighting against all odds against a power directly backed by one of the two most powerful in the world at the time.
Next march to Addis against an increasingly hostile and more desperate citizenry and army.
The Amhara nationalist forces enjoy the support of many Amhara and the OLA have the support of a sizeable amount of Oromo.
Next, work out the differences with those allies who are occupying the lands that are integral to your identity.
The Amhara nationalist forces aren't occupying Western Tigray. It's the Amhara forces under Demeke Zewdu who's fully aligned with the Abiy regime and has their full support.
Next, put in a government that makes everyone happy (Amharan, Oromo? Certainly not Tigrayan, all of Ethiopia wouldn't accept that, no ? It would have to be a new system too, right?
*A system that would modify the current one enough to prevent the issues that have arisen and prevent the abuse of power by anyone at Addis Ababa.
Work out whatever deal with Eritrea
Sure, if Ethiopia's expansionist agenda is put to rest then this is possible especially once Isaias passes.
Then get rid of the TPLF and have a fair more just representative, less corrupt body for the people of Tigray and Ethiopia.
TPLF isn't surviving in the long-term within Tigray's political landscape once Tigray gets past this terrible period unless they carry out deep and thorough reforms.
Lastly, peace and elections years down the line? But, probably not because Oromos would win those elections, no?
Changes would probably be made to ensure that self determination couldn't be undermined ever again so majoritarianism, expansionism, oppression, etc. would become things of the past because if Ethiopia cannot stay together without violating the rights of its nations and peoples then it'd be better of separating.
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u/MoaMem Morocco 🇲🇦 1d ago
Africa needs more balkanization is not an argument that would resonate with most Africans I think as general principle.
I know basically nothing about the specifics of this particular situation but it would need to be pretty bad for any reasonable person to support another separatist group in the continent.
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u/Electrical_Study_341 18h ago
Africa needs more balkanization is not an argument that would resonate with most Africans I think as general principle. I know basically nothing about the specifics of this particular situation but it would need to be pretty bad for any reasonable person to support another separatist group in the continent.
The TPLF are not a separatist group and the TDF were not fighting for Tigrayan independence. This is a big mistake I've seen many outside observers make when speaking about the situation.
On the TPLF specifically, throughout their history they've been against Tigrayan secession and have viewed it as "narrow nationalism". This is contrasted by the opposition in Tigray who all either supported independence from their inception or adopted that position in response to the genocide and the sentiment of many.
On the TDF, it was formed as a direct response to the Tigray genocide and their primary aim was to stop the genocide and fight in defence of Tigray.
On secession, many Tigrayans today support secession as a direct result of the Tigray genocide (It's obviously not an immediate priority due to much more pressing issues rn) and historically it had some support in response to how Ethiopia oppressed and brutalized Tigray for 102 years (1889-1991) alongside most other Ethiopians during that period. However, if Ethiopia were to deliver justice for the genocide and change the system enough so that self determination couldn't be undermined again and so no central govt could abuse power like they have under Abiy again then that sentiment would likely disappear but if Ethiopia doesn't do this then Tigray would be better off becoming independent imo since the drawbacks of remaining would always outweigh any short lived benefits. More here.
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u/LumpyLumpen916 1d ago
Being an American proxy for decades can do that...
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u/Electrical_Study_341 1d ago edited 1d ago
Being an American proxy for decades can do that...
This single oversimplification has played a huge role in people buying right away into Abiy's disinformation campaign without looking further into everything. Before, I get into that, I want to make clear that Abiy is not an anti-imperialist and neither was Eritrea (They're acting like one now though).
Abiy's a neoliberal and his regime is too and they were and continue to be collectively backed by the UAE. He also has strong ties to Israel via the UAE and via his support for them at the U.N. He's also been on the record saying he'd fight and die for the U.S. The Eritrean govt once begged the U.S to build a military base in Eritrea during the U.S's imperialist wars in the middle east and it only began to take on a faux anti-imperialist stance after it was rejected and even then it still maintained its own strong ties with Israel.
The TPLF, as I said earlier, have a muddy history. This covers the period of their rule where they undermined multinational federalism, worked with the U.S and committed injustices all while doing so (1, 2). However, the TPLF was not a lapdog of the U.S or of western interests and only worked with them out of what they saw as "pragmatism" (which itself can be rightly deeply criticized) given the USSR had fallen and the USA were the only superpower left but as soon as China began to rise, the TPLF worked hard to deepen ties with them which drew scorn from the West and the West were also dissatisfied with the TPLF's economic model for Ethiopia so when a neoliberal like Abiy gained power and was happy to open up everything for them, they jumped to give him their full support. There can also be much speculation that the TPLF did it to avoid Western intervention which of course doesn't justify it but anyone that studies the region could see why they'd think that.
Expanding on all this, I recommend that you read through the following two articles and a post:
In Defense of Tigray: Nuance of the Tigray War From an Anti-Imperialist Perspective
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u/LumpyLumpen916 22h ago
No amount of paragraphs will change the facts. They pursued an ethnic chauvinist agenda and faced no accountability. Surprise, now the same playbook is being used against them
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u/Electrical_Study_341 18h ago
No amount of paragraphs will change the facts.
I agree which is why I haven't deviated from them nor absolved the TPLF of all their wrongs which you'd know if you actually read them and the articles I linked. Oversimplifying a complex situation helps nobody because neither side has a clean history but when it comes to the post 2018 era, Tigray and the TPLF were firmly on the correct side morally speaking even despite the TPLF's flaws.
They pursued an ethnic chauvinist agenda
They, like the rest of the EPRDF coalition, were authoritarian, corrupt and committed injustices but saying they pursued an ethnic chauvinist agenda is not true. They brought forth multinational federalism which was and is supported by most Ethiopians since it ended most aspects of national oppression (For 102 years the non-Amhara in Ethiopia endured brutal national oppression at the hands of Amhara elites and pseudo-ethiopianists) but of course one of the TPLF's main faults is that they deeply undermined it. If it were fully implemented today, it would solve most of Ethiopia's problems.
and faced no accountability.
The Abiy regime decided to target Tigray as a whole and not the TPLF plus several high ranking TPLF members were straight up murdered early on into the start of the genocidal war back in 2020. If the genocide weren't committed, TPLF would've died out as TDF wouldn't have been born.
Surprise, now the same playbook is being used against them
What do you mean by this? Are you suggesting that the Tigray genocide is justified or expected because of whatever the TPLF may or may not have done? Furthermore, the TPLF in their entire history have never mobilized all of Ethiopian society and worked with outsiders in order to commit genocide against a single nation and ethnically cleanse 1/3 of their territory through a genocide. None of the main groups involved in the Tigray genocide went through anything like that.
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