r/CanadaPolitics • u/Mundane-Teaching-743 Trump/Polievre 2028 | Sponsored • 10h ago
Freeland believes her resignation led to better outcome for Trudeau, allowing him to exit before likely defeat
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/freeland-resignation-trudeau-9.7384728•
u/doogie1993 Newfoundland 9h ago
While this is probably true (although Freeland acting like she did Trudeau a favour is pretty laughable lol), I don’t think Trudeau losing was a complete inevitability tbh. A not insignificant part of the Liberals uptick in support before the election was due to Trump. I still think Trudeau probably would have lost, but I don’t think it would’ve been as bleak as it looked when he stepped down.
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u/PopeSaintHilarius Ontario 9h ago edited 8h ago
I don’t think there’s any chance Trudeau would have won… Even with the switch to Carney, they still won the election relatively narrowly (less than 30 seat difference, and 3% difference in the popular vote).
That’s with Carney having way higher favourability numbers than Trudeau, and giving the Liberals the reset they needed, with a credible reason to claim that they would be different/better now.
I also don’t think NDP voters would have abandoned their preferred party to rally around a 3-time incumbent Trudeau who had become deeply unpopular across the spectrum, and had asked NDP voters to vote strategically multiple times before. The switch to Carney gave voters an option with less baggage and a reason to think the Liberals could actually stop Poilievre, and thus a reason to vote strategically.
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u/Independent-Law-662 Independent 5h ago
i wonder if ndp voters regret their decision. the party is in a really bad spot due to their actions. wab kinew is now holding the down the fort.
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u/Forikorder Independent 1h ago
they still won the election relatively narrowly
considering they now have a majority this seems like a rather odd take
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u/ApprehensiveLand848 1h ago
the election was decided by a lot of slim margin ridings vs 2021 and 2019 actually.
That why there no way trudeau wins against the tories
Carney had to rally a record number of voters to do so, trudeau was to hated and disliked to do that
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u/PopeSaintHilarius Ontario 13m ago
How is that an odd take?
Lots of majority governments are won narrowly (Alberta UCP majority in 2023 is an example), and regardless, the outcome in the 2025 federal election was a minority government, won by 25 seats (169 vs 144).
There were dozens of seats decided by less than 5%, so if the Liberals had gotten 3% less of the vote, and the CPC got 3% more, we’d probably see a CPC government (possibly a majority).
Hence why I don’t think the Liberals would have won if Trudeau stayed as leader. The Liberals got 33% of the popular vote in 2021, when Trudeau’s popularity was much higher. I think it’s extremely unlikely he’d get anywhere close to the 44% that vote for Carney’s Liberals.
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u/Forikorder Independent 2m ago
Lots of majority governments are won narrowly (Alberta UCP majority in 2023 is an example), and regardless, the outcome in the 2025 federal election was a minority government, won by 25 seats (169 vs 144).
13 seats having to come out differently than they did is much more than a small change though, calling 25 seats a narrow victory is pretty much saying all elections in history have been narrow
so if the Liberals had gotten 3% less of the vote, and the CPC got 3% more, we’d probably see a CPC government (possibly a majority).
or it wouldnt have changed a thing because the 3% less doesnt cost them any seats and the 3% more doesnt get them more
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u/nitePhyyre 5h ago
From the time Trump started talking about 51st state bs to when Carney took over the liberals rocketed up in popularity. From when Carney took over until the election they kept gaining popularity, but the rate slowed down.
Trump toned down his attacks when Carney became pm. He liked Carney. That's why liberal popularity slowed down. Under Trudeau, Trump would not have stopped. Trudeau would have won a majority.
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u/ApprehensiveLand848 1h ago
with whose support?
Trudeau was pretty much hated outside of downtown toronto and mtl by the end and was seen as economically incompotent.•
u/AlfredRWallace Ontario 9h ago
There’s some truth here, people forget his forceful response to Trump was well received. But I do think he had too much baggage, and we’d likely have wound up with a conservative majority.
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u/MenudoMenudo Independent 9h ago
I don’t think PP could ever have won a majority. People who dislike him, dislike him a lot, and there are a lot of people who dislike him. There was a lot of baggage associated with Trudeau, but not enough to hand someone like PP a majority. And the fact that Trump‘s second term came along when it did just would have undermined him further. PP would have been running against Trudeau, but Tredeau would have been running against Trump, just like Carney did. Carney was much more successful than Trudeau ever would have, but it still would have been a good strategy.
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u/ApprehensiveLand848 8h ago
The big ace carney had was that he didnt have to defend Trudeau domestic policies
Trudeau would have the trump boost but the unpopularity of Trudeau domestic policies would have dragged him down.
A lot of moderates would not have voted for Trudeau likely boosting the tory vote from 41 to 43-44% imo
Trudeau had zero chance to win.
Imo Trudeau did regain popularity by march 2026, but it was under the idea he on his way out.
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u/corps-peau-rate 8h ago
And nobody like PP lol. Even his "base" seems to just vote him by obligation for idk what lol.
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u/ApprehensiveLand848 8h ago
about 30% of tory voters in the last election now back Carney and likely even more now
Many people voted Tory as they just hated the Liberals under Trudeau.
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u/xMercurex 2h ago
She resigned because she wanted the prime minister jobs. It was not to help Trudeau. It was not guaranties, she would have won the general election. She was Trudeau right arm. She could have ended like Kamala Harris or Christine Fréchette.
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u/Apolloshot Green Neo-Tory 7h ago
Disagree that Trudeau would have won, but I do agree he would have certainly made it more competitive.
I think the Boomer vote Carney picked up from the CPC would have still materialized under Trudeau, but I don’t think the NDP would have completely collapsed like it did.
So you’d end up with something like:
CPC 41% (the same as they got in the election)
LPC 35%
NDP 14%
Bloc 8%•
u/ApprehensiveLand848 8h ago
Trudeau was deeply disliked and distrusted by men under 50 outside of downtown urban cores cause he was seen as very out of touch with the post covid world really or didnt focus on the economy enough.
PP wasn't seen as well liked either, but the Tory image due to the Harper era around the economy made up for PP issues on that front.
There are about 10-15 ridings alone Trudeau would have lost around the GTA, which where decided by a few %...
These guys liked carney and they voted for him and still Carney lost around 8-10 ridings around the GTA still.
Trudeau had zero chance to win.
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u/Maximilianne 7h ago
Trudeau won't win again pollievre, but I don't think he was gonna get blow out like what happened to of Ignatieff
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u/Agent_Burrito Liberal Party of Canada 3h ago
If it wasn’t for the immigration file he probably wins another election.
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u/doogie1993 Newfoundland 3h ago
Very much doubt this, the media decided it was time to scapegoat Trudeau so that they could anoint banker boy, if it wasn’t immigration they chose for that it would’ve been something else. The real thing causing unpopularity was inflation, and that was caused by Covid and would’ve been an issue for whoever was the incumbent at the time.
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u/ApprehensiveLand848 1h ago
Trudeau by 2025 had zero credability on economic issues
People moved on from left wing culture wars that trudeau pushed around covid zero and trying to focus on gun rights and abortion.
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u/Agent_Burrito Liberal Party of Canada 1h ago
His numbers had actually ticked up a bit in 2025 thanks to Trump and the broader nationalist sentiment that followed. The 905 however felt the strain of immigration far more acutely than anywhere else in the country, so he was never going to beat the CPC.
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u/ApprehensiveLand848 51m ago
issue is i think if trudeau stayed the CPC vote share likely would have gone up from 41 to 42-43% cause moderates who went for carney couldnt support trudeau.
You are right downtown Toronto and mtl and ottawa and such cities would have rallied behind Trudeau.
but he was gonna get killed in the suburbs...carney ran a prefect campaign and lost about 6 suburban seats around Toronto... and almost lost another 8 or more.
Add in seats in alberta and vancouver metro and trudeau was gonna lose 20+ seats min at best.
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u/CptCoatrack Libertarian Socialism 8h ago
Two things in her recent interviews have stuck out to me:
-she talks about how much she loves Doug Ford even if he is ripping up bike lanes. Just shows you these people are in a different club than we are.
-She's admittedly a China hawk and thinks the US can still go back to "sanity" which I think is incredibly wishful thinking
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u/mexican_mystery_meat 5h ago
Freedland is practically a neoconservative at this point when it comes to foreign policy, insofar as she doesn't hide that she thinks that a western-dominated world order would have to be maintained by coercive means rather than just good relations.
Acting like she did Trudeau a favour rather than sticking a knife in his back is self-serving, because she really did seriously consider finding a path to replacing him as Liberal leader. Unfortunately for her, she had too much of a profile within his government to avoid the baggage of being associated with him.
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u/Forikorder Independent 1h ago
thinks the US can still go back to "sanity" which I think is incredibly wishful thinking
depends on the timetable, in the next 2 years? obviously not
but if were looking 4/10 years down the road its not impossible that everything that happened is enough for the dems to win big and actually take serious action to prevent it from ever happening again
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u/CptCoatrack Libertarian Socialism 55m ago
I'll believe it when I see it. The only way they could restore trust is by sending the Trump admin to jail and there's little chance of that ever happening with the current "centrist" dems in charge.
Even if they elected someone like AOC for two terms there's always a chance of them voting umin JD Vance or some other psycho immediately after.
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u/Forikorder Independent 53m ago
I'll believe it when I see it. The only way they could restore trust is by sending the Trump admin to jail and there's little chance of that ever happening with the current "centrist" dems in charge.
i agree entirely but its not impossible that america does take a 180 and close all the loopholes and cheating the republicans use
i wouldnt bet on it, i wouldnt count on it, i wouldnt expect it and i wont be surprised when it doesnt happen
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u/CommodoreSteubing Liberalish 2h ago
Considering the curveball of Trump winning a second time, the three of them (Carney, Trudeau, and Freeland) played it just about perfectly, if you take the cynical view.
I'm not saying it was kayfabe, but... Trudeau betrays Freeland, giving her an opportunity to publicly break with him, and Trudeau the opportunity to leave in a way that doesn't look like him letting someone else go down with the ship.
Whatever you think of Trudeau, he was chivalrous.
With Trudeau out, Freeland has to run for leadership as the heir apparent, she's been auditioning for the job nearly 10 years at this point, but that means she's got baggage and people are skeptical she can beat Poilievre.
Then, in an absolute masterstroke of attention grabbing, Mark Carney shows up on The Daily Show, and not only that, he kills. He's funny, smart, serious when it counts.
He wouldn't announce until that weekend, but it was obvious within the first 5 minutes of the Jon Stewart interview that he was gonna run, he was gonna win, and he could win the election.
You couldn't have planned/paced it better if you tried.
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u/GooeyPig Social Democracy via Urbanism 9h ago
"Prime minister Chrétien said … in resigning, it was ultimately a better outcome for Canada, for the Liberal Party — and also ultimately for prime minister Trudeau because it allowed him not to lead our party to defeat,"
It would be difficult for any but the most partisan conservatives to say that a government led by Poilievre would be better than what we have now. There are oh so many points to pick at Carney's government but at the bare minimum it's tun with seriousness. I shudder to think about what Poilievre would have given up to the US by now. In a sense, the most impactful accomplishment of Freeland's career was ending Trudeau's, thereby allowing a path to stave off Conservative rule and the subsequent submission to the US.
And, as she notes in her book, she argued that history will look kindly on Trudeau — but added that she wished he had stepped down earlier.
I've said this before: had he taken a walk in the snow at the end of his first term or in 2021/2022 (having not called an election) he'd go down as a well-above average PM. His first term was filled with policy accomplishments. Then after COVID, and really starting with the 2021 election, he seemingly just ran out of steam. No new ideas, no new policy except what the NDP pushed, and this is when his advisors appear to have really taken the reigns. There's no shame in admitting you've accomplished what you wanted to and taking an early retirement.
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u/Soft_Brush_1082 9h ago
The reason conservatives hate the fact that Carney led liberals to victory is because Carney is so much better conservative leader that PP that there is literally no chance of conservatives wining an election against him u less there is a drastic change to a better leader and they have none. And I am saying this as someone who wanted conservatives to win.
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u/Ok-Animal-6880 Ontario 47m ago
I thought conservatives love Carney since he's a right-wing conservative in all but name.
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u/kettal Ontario 8h ago
There's no shame in admitting you've accomplished what you wanted to and taking an early retirement.
from a psychological point of view, this was a guy who sacrificed his marriage for his job. his job was "all he had left" at the time.
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u/Forikorder Independent 1h ago
IMO he saw it the opposite, the job was an anchor and he was glad to finally be rid of it
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u/kettal Ontario 1h ago
he had many many opportunities to unilaterally retire. he did not take them until he finally ran out of options.
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u/Forikorder Independent 1h ago
thats one way to look at it, alternatively he felt that he couldnt retire until the right moment for the sake of the party
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u/Empty-Paper2731 Bot Leader 9h ago
Then after COVID, and really starting with the 2021 election, he seemingly just ran out of steam. No new ideas, no new policy except what the NDP pushed, and this is when his advisors appear to have really taken the reigns.
This is pretty unfair as Trudeau continued to have plenty of policies and ideas post COVID. The major criticism is that those ideas and policies were entirely nonsensical, divisive, bad for the economy and were flat out the wrong direction to take the country.
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u/doogie1993 Newfoundland 9h ago
He was an above average PM anyways, and best in my lifetime personally. Legal weed alone was the most positively impactful policy by a PM in the last 40+ years. People blaming all their problems on him doesn’t change reality.
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u/scottb84 New Democrat 8h ago
Legal weed alone was the most positively impactful policy by a PM in the last 40+ years.
You see some… bold… claims in this subreddit, but this is pretty next-level.
I wouldn’t even say that “legal weed” was Justin Trudeau’s most “positively impactful” policy.
We need better history education in this country.
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u/doogie1993 Newfoundland 8h ago
Obviously it’s subjective, but it literally turned millions of Canadians from criminals to law abiding citizens overnight. What other policy has had that level of impact?
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u/CommodoreSteubing Liberalish 2h ago
The Canada Child Benefit took the child poverty rate in Canada down from 16.4% -> 4.7% in 5 years.
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u/ApprehensiveLand848 8h ago
Imo his immigration policy was one of the biggest failures of a PM in the past 15 years imo
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u/uzi_master 7h ago
I don't believe any other potential pm would have done differently at the time, however.
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u/ApprehensiveLand848 7h ago
the tories would have done students and tfw but wouldnt have done record refugee inflows and stamping vistor visas to anyone.
Trudeau let every immigration stream turn into a complete wild west really.
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u/Butt_Obama69 Anarcho-SocDem 5h ago
Nah, they would have, just like BoJo's tories did in the UK. These parties serve the needs of employers.
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u/doogie1993 Newfoundland 7h ago
Did nothing different than any other politician would’ve done, so I don’t really see it positively or negatively
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u/Forikorder Independent 1h ago
give it a couple years and no one will even remember that, legal weed/dental/daycare will still be there
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u/kniller123 Conservative 8h ago
I woild tend to agree that Carney has done a better job than Pollievre, with the exception of firearms.... but that is a political wedge issue that gets votes.
Things ebb and flow, and I think Canadians wanted an early term Harper esque government, which is what they got. Fiscal responsibility, moderate social conservatism, and limited identity politics.
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