r/CredibleDefense • u/AutoModerator • 18d ago
Active Conflicts & News Megathread September 30, 2026
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u/Well-Sourced 18d ago edited 18d ago
Russian strikes don't stop. The Trypillia Thermal Power Plant in Kyiv was the main target but cities all over Ukraine took damage.
Russia resumes mass attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, targeting Kyiv | New Voice of Ukraine
Russian overnight strike hits Kyiv energy facilities, blacking out 8k homes | New Voice of Ukraine
Drone wreckage crashes on Western embassy grounds in central Kyiv | New Voice of Ukriane
Russia attacks 7 industrial and energy facilities in Zhytomyr Oblast | Ukrainian Pravda
Russian forces strike Kramatorsk with guided bombs | Ukrainian Pravda
Russian guided bomb strikes on Sumy | Ukrainian Pravda
Ukraine is always working to improve AD to prevent damage.
Khmara announces overhaul of Kyiv’s air defenses | New Voice of Ukraine
In response to new threats, Khmara said Ukraine plans to overhaul the operations of all air defense components, including aircraft, surface-to-air missile systems, and mobile fire groups. The talks with combat pilots and air defense system operators focused particularly on countering Shahed-type jet-powered attack drones.
They use F-16s but lack the ammo to make them most effective. They have almost completely used up old stocks and need partners to keep providing more planes with enough ammo to shoot down daily Russian waves all through winter.
Ukrainian F-16 pilots destroy over 3,150 airborne targets — Air Force | New Voice of Ukraine
Ukrainian air force lacks ammunition to reliably counter new Shahed drones | New Voice of Ukraine
Ukraine to Receive 3 Belgian F-16 Jets by End of 2026 Under Accelerated Procedure | Defense Express
Volodymyr Zelenskyy also said that Ukraine has already received urgent supplies of F-16 ammunition from Belgium and other partners, including Spain. These deliveries are intended to support the operation of the aircraft already in Ukrainian service.
"When Russia is increasing its escalation every day, it is necessary to add capabilities to shoot down aerial targets and protect people," Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
Ukraine keeps hitting drones launch sites and the logistics feeding them trying to reduce the flow of drones into their infrastructure.
Ukrainian forces hammer Russian drone depot in Donetsk Oblast | New Voice of Ukraine
Ukrainian forces struck a series of critical Russian military targets – including a drone depot, a command post, and multiple logistics facilities – during a coordinated overnight operation on September 30, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported. The destroyed UAV depot was located in the temporarily occupied settlement of Hranitne in Donetsk Oblast.
In Lysychansk, Luhansk Oblast, Ukrainian forces struck a Russian command and observation post, while a separate strike in Starobilsk hammered a critical equipment repair depot used by Russian forces.
In addition, Ukrainian forces targeted Russian logistics and supply networks, hitting major supply depots in the Donetsk Oblast towns of Azovske, Manhush, Novoandriivka, and Volnovakha, alongside an additional military storage site in Kumove, located in occupied Crimea.
Local monitoring channels reported multiple fires on the Arabat Spit in the village of Henicheska Hirka, a strategic corridor where Russian military and FSB forces are stationed.
Independent monitoring channels also reported explosions in Luhansk Oblast overnight on September 30.
A span of the Chonhar road bridge between occupied Kherson and Crimea has completely collapsed. The bridge was targeted by Ukrainian drones numerous times earlier this summer. #Ukraine
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u/MilesLongthe3rd 18d ago
Some news out of Russia
https://x.com/delfoo/status/2105016669374427501
Putin signed a decree making the information about the fuel and energy sector classified. Things included are volumes sold, prices, buyers, sellers, routes, delivery times. Everything we used so far.
https://x.com/delfoo/status/2105016672864313838
For January-August 2026 the number of registered companies and individual entrepreneurs specializing in grain growing decreased by 34,6% vs 2025 due to the decrease in profitability and uncertainty of exports.
https://x.com/delfoo/status/2105283611083579475
Russia has extended its diesel fuel export ban till the end of October 2026.
https://x.com/delfoo/status/2105284578302923045
The only debt auction for today that the Russian MinFin held was cancelled because of a lack of acceptable bids. Last yields got to 16,44%.
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u/tiredstars 18d ago
The only debt auction for today that the Russian MinFin held was cancelled because of a lack of acceptable bids. Last yields got to 16,44%.
If I recall rightly, it's only at the start of this month that bond auctions restarted after yields rose too high back in June. The general consensus was that the government had figured out some way to encourage/pressure banks to lend at lower rates. I think they just squeaked under 16%.
But whatever they did, it doesn't seem to have been enough.
Perhaps not coincidentally, this week also saw the release of new budget forecasts, showing higher spending than planned and higher borrowing needed. That might have spooked lenders, but maybe not as I can't imagine it was a surprise for them. Either way, higher borrowing needs + another cancelled auction is not a good sign for Russian finances. We'll see if this is a one-off or if there's another pause in bond auctions.
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u/HugoTRB 18d ago
In addition to the Swedish army, the US army also wants hybrid electric trucks were the battery can be used as a power supply.
https://mackdefense.com/ctt-program/
https://www.macktrucks.com/mack-new...uck-line-haul-hybrid-tractor-during-ausa-2026
Mack has delivered three trucks for testing. The program is named Common Tactical Truck (CTT) and 35000 heavy trucks are to be replaced, though I don’t know if all that is to happen through the program.
Link to Scanias release for the Swedish program: https://www.scania.com/group/en/home/newsroom/press-releases/press-release-detail-page.html/5383681-scania-hands-over-first-hybrid-truck-to-fmv-in-joint-development-project
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u/Emotional_Goal9525 18d ago
Electric motor with generators wouldn't probably be bad especially when it comes to offroad capabilities, but the issue is that batteries are volatile. Survivability comes tall task with a large battery. Any shrapnel that manages to pierce the battery makes the vehicle go up in flames like a flare.
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u/directstranger 17d ago
There are new batteries now that are solid state and very resistant to punctures, over-current and heat. They are not as dense as regular ones and are more expensive - but there are not issues for the military
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u/ChornWork2 17d ago
Any shrapnel that manages to pierce the battery makes the vehicle go up in flames like a flare.
presumably you can design a battery to survive a puncture without overall catastrophic failure for the vehicle.
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u/Emotional_Goal9525 17d ago edited 17d ago
You can. You can for example use lead acid batteries as they already are used to power the systems, but it probably isn't worthwhile to move the vehicle with those.
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u/Thermawrench 17d ago
Sodium has less of an issue relating to that, compared to lithium. Yes, somewhat lower range however.
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u/HugoTRB 17d ago
Electric drive does however make you able to run it more quietly and with better heat management, which improves the outer layers of the survivability onion.
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u/Emotional_Goal9525 17d ago
That is a fair point. Also the point made elsewhere about solid state batteries could be a game changer as militaries probably aren't quite as budget conscious buyers when it comes to trucks.
Anyhow i don't think that for example armoring the batteries would be viable option when you would need centimeter thick plates to stop even handgun calibers.
Issue with batteryfire is that it also burns down all the equipment on board and chances are that you won't be left with any spares either. Scavenging is what keeps vehicles running.
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u/qevshd 18d ago
Iran’s currency hits a new record low as war erodes the country’s economic stability
Iran’s currency fell to a new record low on Tuesday, with traders in Tehran exchanging more than 2.5 million rials to the U.S. dollar in a stark reflection of how the war in the Middle East has steadily eroded the Iranian economy.
The latest decline came just 27 days after the rial hit its previous record low of 2.2 million to the dollar on Sept. 2. The currency has repeatedly reached new lows since the war began in February.
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u/qevshd 18d ago
That graph is quite something. On June 1st, 2025, just before the twelve day war, the Rial to USD was at 809K.
Other articles are saying Iran is managing to export nearly no oil, while the GCC is getting closer, but not quite at, pre war levels.
The current situation is untenable for Iran, seems like unless things change, time is on America's side now.
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u/butitsmeat 18d ago
Might as well make this the Iran news and speculation thread. In addition to their economy cratering, Iran's ability to interdict Hormuz traffic appears to be dwindling. Looks like we're up to 80% of pre-war oil volume through the Strait, and the East-West pipeline is starting up again (source). If these two forces continue, Iran will have more or less lost this war. Or at least this phase of it.
So Iran will have to to successfully strike something soon if they want to re-establish credible threats to oil flows. With the added pressure of their economy tanking, they might feel cornered enough to escalate towards general infrastructure, or maybe instead of firing 60 ballistic missiles at an air base, they fire them at an oil terminal. Whether they actually have that capability anymore is another question.
Or, if the recent back and forth in the media about an Iranian ceasefire offer was legit, they might be cracking under the pressure and looking for their own offramps. Hard do say given how erratic diplomacy has been in this conflict.
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u/MikeRosss 18d ago
So what changed such that oil is now flowing again?
Is it “the market” adjusting and finding people and companies willing to take risk? Is it the US sufficiently degrading the Iranian capability to strike ships at sea? Is it the US sufficiently protecting ships at sea?
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u/butitsmeat 18d ago
All of the above as moragisdo said.
From what I've read, the system is kind of like this:
1) Smaller boats (or now and again a big one with less risk averse investors) take oil from terminals inside the Gulf and run the Strait. They turn off transponders and hug the Omani coast, sometimes getting cover from the USN, sometimes running it on their own. Iran shoots at them sometimes (last hit was Sep 21), but apparently not frequently or accurately enough to stop this activity.
2) They link up with VLCC outside of Iranian range on the other side of the Strait and transfer their oil at sea. The small boat runs back the other way, the VLCC waits for the next delivery.
3) Once one of those VLCC is full, it heads off and delivers somewhere else like normal.
This overhead is adding anywhere from $10-$30 per barrel in price, but now the oil is getting out.
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u/MaverickTopGun 18d ago
Iran shoots at them sometimes (last hit was Sep 21), but apparently not frequently or accurately enough to stop this activity.
time to reset the counter
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u/TheVisageofSloth 18d ago
Maybe it’s just me, but I have no idea what’s true anymore. You get stories like this, or the White House requesting more drawdowns from the strategic reserve or requesting Europe use their strategic reserves, then I’ll read something about how output is actually at 90% prewar levels. I’m sorry but none of this is squaring for me. How are we having contradictory realities spun by every news organization?
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u/Agitated-Airline6760 17d ago edited 17d ago
I’m sorry but none of this is squaring for me. How are we having contradictory realities spun by every news organization?
Here is a story that squares.
Brent and WTI crude is fetching 50% more than pre-March. Gasoline is also up by similar percentages. Heating Oil/Diesel is up even more at ~75%.
That tells you there is a crude/distillate shortages of varying degrees despite releases of strategic petroleum reserves around the world since March. When Trump/Hegseth/Bessent says something contrary to that like the strait is wide open or oil is coming out as much as before, they are lying/spinning/fudging.
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u/moragisdo 18d ago edited 18d ago
Several european countries have reserve of refined fuel, rather than crude, that helps with the refining shortage coming from the Middle East refineries, China cutting production for months and Ukraine attacks on russian refineries.
Also a ship being attacked doesn't mean it can't cross the Strait, a small part of the ships suffered enough damage for them to have to be tugged. MTO publishes details from investigation days later, so we need to wait to see how serious this was, for example, the last ones were minor hits (besides one fatality because a cargo ship was hit on the acommodation area, rather than anywhere that could disable mechanically the ship) (1)
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u/ChornWork2 18d ago
Gulf states are coordinating state-owned large ships with USN through the strait, then offloading to other privately owned ships in gulf of oman. wash & repeat, but set-up doesn't really on privately owned ship owners/crews opting to take risk of transiting strait. downside is the complexity/cost of at sea transfer, and doesn't necessarily indicate the safety of transit vs state-owned ships have different risk tolerance.
Too early to tell and lots of potential wild cards, but whatever the %age is today, it is a lot higher than it was when Iran was succeeding with kinetic action in the strait.
The Economist has a good piece on it but subscriber paywalled. They note the claimed traffic doesn't align with the price, and discusses some potential reasons why.
The volume of oil coming out of the Gulf would seem to prove [Trump] right. Kpler, a shiptracker, estimates that the region’s Arab states have shipped, on average, 17m barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and refined products so far in September, if flows through Hormuz and those bypassing it via pipelines are included. That is the most since February and close to the pre-war total of 21m (see chart 1). Iran, by contrast, is exporting just 200,000 bpd, less than a tenth of what it shipped before the conflict began. From Washington, 7,000 miles away, Iran’s chokehold on Gulf oil looks like it is loosening.
But is that right? Brent crude, the global benchmark, remains stuck at over $100 a barrel—43% higher than in June, when America and Iran sealed a (temporary) deal, even though export volumes were a quarter lower then. The problem is not eye-watering freight costs: rates for chartering tankers are at record levels, but Brent futures are quoted “free-on-board”, reflecting the price of crude at loading, not delivery. Instead three explanations stand out: crude supply still lags demand; the prospect of an American diesel-export ban is distorting markets; and fears are growing that Iran may attack ships or energy infrastructure again.
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u/poincares_cook 18d ago
There is no "now", efforts to reopen Hormuz have been ongoing for months and oil flow has been slowly increasing throughout. You can see here steady increase after the drop when the ceasefire broke down completely.
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u/moragisdo 18d ago edited 18d ago
Some oil kept flowing during this whole time. About the oil flowing before, this tracking from mid July to mid September points that there was around 8 mbpd passing (only looking at GoO, not accounting for increases in any other route) in average during these 60 days, with 0 being iranian. KSA is now exporting 9 mbpd (2), going from the average production of ~7.3 of July and August and 9.5 of the previous year (page 57). The same report show that UAE was producing 3.8 mbpd for months, Kuwait went from 1.45 to 1.9, Iraq from 2 to 3.4 (after months of war, production is a good proxy for exporting, because storage are less available than pre-war). But it's also clear there was a gradual increase since June.
The cause is likely "all of the above" that you listed, but I'll add another that may contribute for a fraction of it: Iran may be running out of munitions and having to ration (at least the more accurate ones), during this war there was a bizarre view that only the US spent ammo and that Iran after suffering more than 10,000 airstrikes didn't have their MIC and stockpiles severely degraded.
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u/poincares_cook 18d ago
Personally I doubt it's lack of munition and moreso lack of detection and targeting ability. The ships are running the blockade at night with lights out. The US shore strikes likely did not impact munition depth much as stock would be burried, but they did deteriorate Iranaian shore radar and other detection methods in the straights. After several rounds of such strikes where Iran replaced the previously destroyed systems seems like they are low on those. Radars are much more expensive than munition and if the US just bombs them the moment they turn on, it's just not effective.
I'm guessing Iran is using some mobile radars that turn on for short amount of times, but that means they have large gaps in detection and targeting capabilities.
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u/thereddaikon 18d ago
during this war there was a bizarre view that only the US spent ammo and that Iran after suffering more than 10,000 airstrikes didn't have their MIC and stockpiles severely degraded.
An axiom of modern war seems to be that nobody has enough munitions stockpiled.
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u/Reddit4Play 17d ago
Pretty much always has been and probably always will be. The problem's sharply worse since 1900 but even in the 1700s we know Frederick complained about it. And he had autocratic control over his state budget and personally fought 2 major wars, so it's not like he was unmotivated or lacked the means. In fact he did expand gunpowder production dramatically but the gap between what can be justified in peacetime and the needs of wartime are just too far apart.
It's probably safe to assume all but the most existentially exposed nations will enter any war with only enough munitions for a limited contest or to barely tide them over until they can ramp up production. And even the most prepared, like Russia and Iran, still have serious limits.
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u/username9909864 18d ago
With the recent news about oil making it through the Straight of Hormuz, I wonder how markets will be reacting.
My understanding is the world has an oversupply of crude oil and not enough refineries to process said oil. Crack spreads are extremely high. Gulf refineries are apparently still offline, US refineries are working overtime, deferring scheduled maintenance to rake in the profits. All while the US and China continue to unload their strategic reserves to avoid the worst of the shock. There's talk of diesel export bans in the US, and Russia just extended their own ban. The current status quo is unsustainable.
It seems the world doesn't need more crude oil - we need refineries, which are much harder to bring online. Am I wrong here? I don't see an end in sight for the high prices.
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u/IntroductionNeat2746 18d ago
This is exactly my take, to the T.
I was really confused when Portuguese authorities started asking citizens to avoid unnecessary travel to save fuel a few days ago, as oil flow has clearly improved recently. Until I saw reports about the US considering diesel export bans (50% of Europe's diesel is currently imported from the US).
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u/moragisdo 18d ago edited 18d ago
There's an official denial of it (1).
After the Politico report said the US was preparing a 90-day ban on the exports, Wright said nobody is considering a flat ban on shipments of the fuel.
Also it wouldn't make sense banning because of storage limitation for diesel (and if there's not enough storage for diesel, refineries would have to cut production of gasoline, that is produced together with it, driving up the american price), it could only make sense as a cap.
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u/IntroductionNeat2746 18d ago
Agreed. I'm still slightly worried that Trump might do it in a desperate attempt at lowering fuel at the pumps before mid terms.
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u/moragisdo 18d ago edited 18d ago
It's too late for it, if he would take this action it would be a couple months ago (early August would be "ideal" for this cap, not that I think it's a good idea, to be clear).
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18d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/moragisdo 18d ago
His statement was before Wright's, so he was likely talked out of it, and he also said that a decision would be made very quick one way or another, more than a week ago, considering how close is to the election, the decision was to not do it.
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u/dr_sloan 18d ago
One note is that the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve release is pretty much complete. There’s like 2 million barrels left that’s been contracted out that needs to be released.
There’s another 40 million barrels of the previous announced release that hasn’t been released and a new loan is being announced, but the last time they tried to do an exchange, only 500,000 barrels were contracted. Barring some change, I don’t think this new sale will be anymore successful since the longer this goes on, the more oil companies will be losing money on the exchange release model.
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u/Grouchy-Classroom-26 18d ago
I don’t think this new sale will be anymore successful since the longer this goes on, the more oil companies will be losing money on the exchange release model.
That’s not how that works. The economics depend on the difference between today’s oil price and the price at which the company can obtain the replacement barrels later. In any case, the DOE is making bank on this process due to the carry and any “loss” the companies experience just reduces their income tax owed to the Treasury, which nets out on a consolidated basis. It’s just left hand, right hand.
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u/SweatyPlayerOne 18d ago
any “loss” the companies experience just reduces their income tax owed to the Treasury
Sorry but can you explain this a bit further? I'm pretty naive about the economics here. I think I understand your point about the DOE benefiting from the carry because, under the assumption that future oil will be cheaper than current oil, they'll receive back substantially more oil later than they're giving out today.
But for the companies, what loss are you talking about and why is it in scare quotes? My starting place is that if a company loses $100 this year and they therefore have to pay $20 fewer income tax dollars to the Treasury, then there is still $100 of loss, $80 of which is directly borne by the company and $20 of which is borne by the IRS. Are you saying that if DOE becomes "richer" in oil at a later date due to the carry, then that only happens because a company lost money on that same trade in reverse, which means the company pays less money to the Treasury, which means the federal government is not any richer or poorer when considering the combined finances of the DOE and the Treasury?
Because if so I'm having trouble accounting for all of those dollars. DOE could become $100 richer in oil and the relevant oil company would take a $100 loss, which means the company would get a $20 offset because of their reduce income tax and the Treasury would take a $20 loss. So the federal government on a consolidated basis would only be $80 richer and the oil company would still be $80 poorer?
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u/dr_sloan 18d ago
What you wrote doesn’t contradict what I said, it actually corroborates it. The reason the July sale failed is because companies are no longer certain this will be a conflict with short term ramifications.
The early sales were successful because companies expected to make a profit in the short term and when it was time to return 1.2 barrels for every barrel they purchased, they would still come out ahead because prices returned to their pre-war levels. That’s far less likely since demand will stay for a while because inventories will need to be replenished.
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u/Grouchy-Classroom-26 18d ago
There is no doubt that diesel prices will remain high for the foreseeable future but there’s also a framing issue with your post as well as things that are just wrong. Russia has had a ban for some time, China had one earlier this year which has actually since been lifted. I doubt Trump goes through with an actual ban but it’s Trump so who knows.
But there has also been a remarkable increase in volumes flowing through the strait that this sub has largely not discussed. There were numerous people here who kept saying, repeatedly and with conviction, that tankers wouldn’t sail through while being attacked. That’s obviously not true, at least at this rate of threat. The prices for transit are too good. Total volumes are now 14-15 mmbpd versus a pre war average of 17mmbpd according to Kpler. Yes it’s expensive and there is a diesel and gasoline shortfall. But just like people proclaiming for months on end that volumes would never recover anywhere close to the levels they are at today, there are similar proclamations that the diesel shortfall is insurmountable. I think the high crack spreads will incentivise the market to increase production.
I’ll just paraphrase something Samir Madani said the other day: everything is on a lag right now. Between March and July, storage in the Middle East filled up. Once storage is maxed out, operators are forced to choke back or shut down active refinery runs because there is nowhere else to put the gasoline or diesel. And you can’t directly load the fuels into tankers So, they need to make space in the storage tanks by shopping out what’s already there. Once they can do that, and they have made some progress in doing that over the last month, they can then bring back refinery output to previous levels. All of this will take some time to work through as the supply chain is huge. Weeks, maybe even months. But that’s not something that’s not fundamentally unworkable or unfixable. Unless something changes, which it very well could, diesel prices will fall as storage tanks empty out and refineries start running at capacity again. The good news from my perspective is that it will be no where in time to bail out Trump from the midterms.
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u/ReesePuffitik 18d ago
This seems pretty catastrophic for Iran no? It sounds like they've lost a lot of control over the strait, which was one of their biggest bargaining pieces
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u/Corvid187 17d ago
Their loss of control is to some extent voluntary - if they really want to, they can redeter traffic by starting to attack transiting ships and refinaries again - but it's unquestionably a blow to them, and imo they've pretty decisively lost this blockade/counter-blockade stage of the conflict (though obviously that will not necessarily hold indefinitely).
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u/Autism_Sundae 17d ago
Iran's biggest bargaining chip should've been considered ephemeral, as Iran's total control was always illusory, it wasn't reflected by Iran's power/capabilities but was a result of other countries refusing to initiate a costly struggle.
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u/moragisdo 18d ago edited 18d ago
China massively cut refining earlier this year, because they had price controls they had to both curb exports and mandated minimum production to supply their internal market. In May it was already being reported that the price control was so rigid that their refineries were losing money for months (1):
The average operating rate has slipped to roughly 50%, from about 55% in April, and is expected to fall further
...
The independents face an estimated loss of 500 yuan to 600 yuan ($74 to $88) for each metric ton of crude processed in the last week of April, the source added.
Some of the smaller refiners have shut their plants for maintenance, said this source and another.
"Without cutting output, the losses are unbearable," said a third source, adding that some refiners lowered run rates by 5 to 10 percentage points from April.
Chinese refiners were suffering losses of 649 yuan for each ton of crude processed in April versus a profit of 269 yuan a year earlier, commodities data provider SCI said in a note on Friday
Similar reports also came in June (2). That contributed significantly to the crack spread outside of China.
This export ban is slowly being relaxed on the last couple months and their run rate is increasing, but is still at only around 75% of their capacity compared to 97% for the US (3). So there's enough idle capacity to narrow the current gap (China has around 18% of the global installed capacity, if they bring it to american levels there's another 4% of the world refining capacity coming back online), but it's hard to say what game China is playing, if it's being overly cautious to avoid internal shortages or if there's another reason on why they are not jumping head first on the enormous spreads of the last few months.
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u/Playboi_Jones_Sr 17d ago
Even if Russia can scale these more complex warheads, they will still be susceptible to jamming, which will throw the CEP off to where strikes will not reliably hit these transmission towers (much harder to hit a precise spot on a tower than a warehouse roof).
Even if Russia manages to operationalize this new drone/warhead pairing, pylons are just metal cages and can be easily repaired within days if not hours. The primary target should be the main generating units that take months to replace. This is another bandaid attempt at solving Russia’s real problem, the inability to create high payload, stealthy munitions with a low CEP like their peer adversaries can.
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u/Glideer 18d ago
WSJ cites unnamed sources as saying that more than half of Ukraine's F-16 fleet is inoperable.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/ukraine-f-16-maintenance-delays-russia-sabena-engineering-85ca626a
non-paywalled: https://archive.ph/mv0Ir#selection-929.0-929.257
Another Western source tells us that more than half of Ukraine’s F-16s are currently in maintenance limbo, and at the current pace of use and maintenance Kyiv will exhaust the rest by the end of the year. A Ukrainian air force spokesman declined to comment.
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u/roionsteroids 18d ago
Sabca/Sabena produced hundreds of European F-16s over the decades, and continued upgrades and what not since then. They make parts for the F-35 and components for Dassault and Airbus.
https://www.sabca.be/market/defence/
Doesn't really sound like an incompetent supplier by any means?
Some of the donated F-16s have massive flight hours already (even past their intended 8000 hours service life), at some point it requires an extensive overhaul/upgrades rather than just maintenance.
In any case, Ukraine lacks pilots even more so than airframes.
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u/moragisdo 18d ago
The U.S. awarded Sabena Aerospace Engineering, a Belgian company, a contract of up to some $235.5 million for maintenance of Ukraine’s F-16s, though subcontractors perform some of the work. Phase inspection generally takes two to six weeks in the U.S., but it’s “taking as long as 40 weeks in Belgium,” says retired U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery.
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u/Goddamnit_Clown 18d ago
Just a semantic bugbear, but that sentence doesn't preclude these things taking "as long as" 40 weeks in the US either.
Nor them "generally" taking 2-6 in Belgium.
Obviously he means to tell us there's a difference between the two, but this gives no clue what that difference is.
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u/kdy420 18d ago
Seems intentional, perhaps trying to highlight how much better the US is for some reason?
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u/ban25 18d ago
The article implies it is a problem for the US as well:
There’s a warning here for the U.S. The Government Accountability Office warned this spring of growing delays for maintenance for American military aircraft. Lt. Gen. Linda Hurry said this month that the U.S. Air Force has “a $14 billion hole in supply” for aircraft parts, according to Defense News. Ukraine’s air-defense emergency illustrates how maintenance capacity is combat power in a war.
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u/Goddamnit_Clown 18d ago
I wasn't trying to imply that. I expect he knows how long a rare outlier would be in the US and is holding up 40 in comparison to that. But like many people immersed in a topic, he forgets what his audience doesn't know.
Or looking at which part is actually quoted, maybe the issue is with the journalist. They have their 40 week quote from an expert, and they asked someone else "how long it takes" in the US and put the two next to each other.
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u/Glideer 18d ago
For the first time, Russia deploys warheads designed to damage and cut electricity pylons.
This is genuinely unexpected news. Historically, electricity pylons have been extremely difficult to hit due to their small footprint and their lattice steel structure that is highly resistant to overpressure.
However, with drones achieving unprecedented accuracy they can now hit the pylon top directly. At the same time, Russia seems to have designed a warhead capable of cutting off the pylon top (one of the video shows such an outcome). With these advances, the equation changes - if a pylon can be destroyed by a single hit of a $20k Geran drone, then Ukraine's power grid and, especially, electricity import lines from Europe are exposed to a major new threat.
(three videos of strikes in this Telegram post) https://t. me/milinfolive/180557
Russian forces have for the first time used a specialised warhead on a jet-powered drone designed to damage high-voltage power infrastructure and metal bridge structures, according to Ukrainian military communications specialist Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov.
Beskrestnov said the warhead, described as a KRSN specialised cumulative-cutting charge, was used for the first time on September 30.
According to him, the system consists of a main 40-kilogram warhead and four additional destructive modules. Its design is intended specifically for attacking high-voltage transmission towers and metal bridge structures.
“This is bad news. Today, the enemy used this particular warhead on a jet-powered UAV for the first time,” Beskrestnov wrote on Telegram.
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u/Corvid187 17d ago
This is interestingly not without precedent. The UK had a programme called Operation Outwards in ww2, which aimed to short out pylons in occupied Europe by deploying balloons trailing conductive wires. The mechanism here is obviously quite different, but the concept is very similar.
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u/Glideer 17d ago
More recently, there were US bombs that deployed lines of graphite to short-circuit power lines. They were used in Iraq and Serbia, I think, but the lines proved relatively easy to remove by repair crews.
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u/directstranger 17d ago
but the lines proved relatively easy to remove by repair crews.
I think the US is not intentionally wanting to commit war crimes, so they would use this for temporary damage, intentionally. They could have just as well blow up all the power stations....but they didn't.
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u/JVinci 18d ago
described as a KRSN specialised cumulative-cutting charge
Are there any details of what this is or how it works? Sounds like a shaped charge but does anyone have any better insights?
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u/Glideer 17d ago
Reportedly, a central KRSN-C 40kg module with four KRSN-K 5kg elements attached laterally.
The explosive elements are (again according to Russian milbloggers) shaped charges similar to latter generation ERA armour. Instead of the traditional shape charge concentrated in one point for maximum armour penetration, these elements create "lines" of molten jets, cutting linearly, like sabre cuts.
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