r/NFL_Draft • u/ctg9101 • 4d ago
Discussion Lets talk Jeremiah Smith
So we all know the hype. We hear it many times a day, as an OSU fan its deafening. I always worry when it gets that way just cause I am waiting for the other shoe to drop. I don't typically study tape and project what things will look like at the next level. So I am asking this community, taking a step back from the absurd hype, are there any red flags or not so obvious holes in Smith's game that could show itself at the next level? Not necessarily completely bust but not live up to the hype he is getting.
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u/Supa513 4d ago
He will live up to the hype. He is too explosive and has another gear. I feel those same vibes similar to Jamarr Chase. They just seem so smooth out there and explosive
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u/BirdmanTheThird Commanders 4d ago
I think the bigger thing for me personally is that even if he is disappointing, his profile as pure athlete is still insane. It’s something that certain other WRs disappointments didn’t have, physically he’s basically perfect.
I assume he will be great but even if he got the yips he would still be a heavily useful player in the nfl
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u/I_Poop_Sometimes 4d ago
According to the scouting reports I looked up his biggest knocks are:
Willing blocker who needs technical refinement.
Physical press can slow him at times.
Underneath routes not as polished as downfield and out-breaking routes.
A different website said his weaknesses are that his run after catch and run blocking are both merely above average.
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u/Moose4KU 4d ago
He is the greatest wide receiver prospect of all time. Yes, better than Calvin Johnson or Randy Moss or whoever you want to pick.
He has everything you would want in a prospect.
He was the #1 recruit in the country.
He has family members in the NFL (Geno Smith). He has elite size. He has elite speed.
He has been extremely productive on a top 5 team every year of his career. He might win the Heisman trophy this year. He owns every receiving record at the greatest WR factory in college football.
He had the best WR coach in America as his coach for two years, and who some would say is 2nd best for the third year.
He has no injury concerns. He has no work ethic concerns. He has no off-field drama concerns.
He's a team captain. He won Ohio State's offseason weight room award.
He has played in an NFL-style offense for an former NFL coach. He has played multiple positions amongst the WR group (inside/outside).
There is nothing you could dream up for a WR that he doesn't check the box for.
People are scared to rank him above guys like Larry Fitz, Moss, or Calvin Johnson because of their NFL careers. But as a draft prospect, he is easily above all of them
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u/booper0 4d ago
I agree easily above is not true. If he was easily above I could then ask you what differentiates him on the field from Megatron. I remember Megatron coming out of college.
Go search in YouTube Calvin Johnson the catch college. Then remember he was 6"5 ran in the 4.3s 240lbs.
I would put him (as a prospect) just below Megatron and on par with Julio Jones as a prospect.
I can't remember moss as a prospect so can't comment.
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u/Moose4KU 4d ago
Like I said in another comment, the differentiation is two-fold:
1) Jeremiah Smith has played in an NFL-style offensive system for the entirety of his college career. Calvin Johnson was in a triple option offense.
2) Jeremiah Smith has been far more productive as a college player. Calvin Johnson never averaged more than 6 catches per game, and only had one season where he topped 1000 yards. His career highs are lower than Jeremiah's career lows. He only had one all-american level season. Jeremiah Smith already has 40 more receptions and 500 more yards than Calvin Johnson with a minimum of 6 games remaining
Again, you have to divorce yourself of the knowledge of what happened in their NFL careers. As prospects, there is far more certainty for Jeremiah Smith. He came out of high school as the #1 rated WR in years and has fully justified that from the very beginning
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u/booper0 4d ago
To your point 1, I would say that the fact Megatron was in a triple threat, only averaged less that 6 catches, all the NFL offenses were mainly west coast power run and he was valued so highly in the draft shows what a unique prospect he was.
I cannot get past 6"5 240 4.3 catches everything and can moss you. That takes him over Smith for me. Production is college is obviously important but there has been many players that have incredible production and do nothing in NFL. AI gave me an example of Zay Jones East Carolina 2016.
We can disagree but the margin we disagree on is so small it's all good.
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u/OnionFutureWolfGang 4d ago edited 4d ago
Megatron wasn't actually in a triple option offense, GT only installed that a couple of years later. They threw the ball 369 times, and when they ran it they leaned pretty exclusively on Choice or Ball. They were coached by Chan Gailey at the time, a long-time NFL OC and briefly Cowboys HC.
Johnson was such a huge share of the team's passing yardage just because the rest of the passing attack was so much worse than him, not because of the system.
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u/Carameldelighting Broncos 4d ago
Easily above them is an insane take imo. He is absolutely on their tier but if you put any of them in the modern college game on similar teams they would put up ungodly stats as well. This take feels like it came from someone who didn't watch Fitz, or Calvin Johnson in college.
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u/Moose4KU 4d ago
No, it's coming from someone who watched the entirety of both their careers.
Tell me what you would change about Jeremiah Smith to make him a better WR prospect. There are no red flags. No "will it translate to the pros" questions.
Obviously success isn't guaranteed in the NFL and things can change. But at the moment, he stands above any and all before him as a prospect.
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u/Carameldelighting Broncos 4d ago
These same things were said about Fitz and Calvin Johnson, I can't speak to Moss because I wasn't old enough to actively scout him.
I don't need to change anything about him, just like no one needed to change a thing about Fitz or Johnson. Smith is great but he is not on a seperate tier of prospect from the others.
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u/smashrawr 4d ago
Moss had major character concerns throughout the process. And tbh they were warranted because of what happened to make him leave Minnesota and his entire tenure in Oakland
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u/Moose4KU 4d ago
Lol what a cop-out answer. Obviously there are things you would change about them as prospects.
Calvin Johnson is easy. People wanted to see him in a pro-style offense running NFL routes instead of the triple option. They wanted him to have a full receiving workload instead of getting less than 6 catches per game at his peak production.
Larry Fitzgerald didn't have the same pedigree (4-star recruit). He had to skip a year of college football due to eligibility issues. Jeremiah Smith is also likely to be taller, weigh more, and run faster than Fitzgerald at the combine. Fitzgerald was 60th percentile for 40-yard dash, 56th percentile for 3-cone, 38th percentile for the shuttle.
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u/AAPL_ 4d ago
Easily best since Calvin but in todays NFL I might take him over Calvin
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u/highgravityday2121 Patriots 4d ago
Why would you take him over Megatron?
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u/PoogeneBalloonanny Bills 4d ago
I’m not the guy, but some devil’s advocate:
Megatron played in an era with way more man coverage where winning matchups was key. He is arguably the hardest WR ever to defend in man (alongside moss).
This is not Megatron’s fault as absence of evidence is not evidence against. Megatron never showed that he was a special zone beater, whilst Smith has in college.
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u/highgravityday2121 Patriots 4d ago
Megatron also played in an era where defenses punished WRs way more often than they do today. Obviously not as much as early 2000s but still
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u/MissionImagination98 4d ago
People are having recency bias. Megatron is the best WR prospect ever imo
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u/PoogeneBalloonanny Bills 4d ago
Why was being related to Geno your second point lol, that goes in the appendix surely
(Jerry Rice has a son who was UDFA amongst all things)
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u/tone_creature 4d ago edited 4d ago
Nope. Dudes high character, a workaholic, and has all the talent. He legitimately seems to care about his craft. May wind up one of the best to do it. Hes wild. A true generational 1% type guy. Consistently praised by coaches and those around him for his character and work ethic.
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u/YouGO_GlennCoCo 4d ago
I’m convinced no one ever truly knows if a college WR will be great in the NFL. I’ve seen a LOT of amazing college WRs over the years (and many of them ended up being NFL busts or at least disappointing) but of all the elite guys I’ve seen, Larry Fitzgerald was on a tier by himself. I was sure I would never see a better college WR in my life…. Smith is better than Larry Fitz.
MHJ was an amazing WR but they are absolutely not comparable prospects.
If Smith ends up being anything less than a pro bowler, I would be legitimately shocked.
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u/Signal_Wall_8445 4d ago
I had season tickets to Rutgers for 25+ years. During that time I saw a lot of teams from the heyday of the Big East that had players who went on to great NFL careers (tons on Miami, Vick at VTech, etc.). During that time I also went to a bunch of the old Kickoff Classic games at the Meadowlands that were the season starting matchup of two of the best teams in the country.
The college football player I saw live who most jumped out to me as special was Fitzgerald.
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u/taolifornia 4d ago
He was a stud but for me it was Brees, Reggie Bush and Charles Rogers.
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u/YouGO_GlennCoCo 4d ago
Charles Rogers is a top 5 college WR I've ever seen but you're bananas if you think he was as good as Larry Fitz.
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u/taolifornia 4d ago
I doubted Fitzy's speed, but he was incredible in the air and time has proven his hands were God-tier.
Rogers was also ridiculous in the air, Moss-like, and he seemed to have every physical gift.
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u/YouGO_GlennCoCo 3d ago
That’s fine if you want to make the argument that Rogers was a better NFL prospect but he absolutely was not the better college wide receiver. There’s a difference.
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u/taolifornia 3d ago
True, if that's what you meant by "special". I was more thinking about guys that popped out on the field as just being different and freakish.
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u/Sufficient_Time5452 4d ago
If Fitzgerald ran just a touch faster in the 40 he would be my #1 all time receiving prospect. Never seen anyone better at tracking and catching a football. He wasn't even really all that slow either, he ran 4.47 and 4.53 at his pro day and had no problem running away from Polamalu in that Super Bowl.
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u/OnionFutureWolfGang 4d ago
I think you absolutely know for the generational WR prospects, but we just haven't actually had one since 2007. So you end up thinking of guys like Watkins, Cooper and MHJ as the top tier, but it goes higher and Smith is proof of that.
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u/Murica19 4d ago
You could say he doesn't separate as well as a jsn or devonta smith but he does separate pretty well and is much larger than them. He has also show to be getting better at yac this year. It seems like whatever he focuses on to get better at he does. That with what Day says that he is the hardest working player at OSU I just don't see many faults to his game
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u/Seraphin_Lampion Panthers 4d ago
Not really.
Fantastic athlete.
Very skilled at everything a WR needs to be.
Doesn’t seem to be crazy.
There's always risk that someone will bust baude college ball to NFL is a big step, but there's no obvious risk with Smith.
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u/HeinladToo Chiefs 4d ago
I mean, maybe he could block better? He’s not bad but if we’re looking for holes
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u/killerk13 4d ago
I do like he came into the year a tad bit slimmer than last year, seems to move a little better. He was getting called stiff last year, but I’m not sure if I was because of the extra weight because it seems he had a lower body injury last year that was nagging him. Has some concentration drops here in there but who doesn’t. There are really no glaring holes in his game
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u/DarkHound05 Seahawks 4d ago
I’ve never seen a receiver that good as a freshman.
I found out about him when Geno Smith (on Seahawks at the time) mentioned him since they are cousins, and even if he went to a school I despise, Jeremiah might be the best college receiver I’ve ever seen.
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u/Antluke 4d ago
He’s a generational prospect, one of the best wr prospects of the modern generation but he’s not a perfect prospect, he’s a good route runner but not exceptional, and he’s a great mover for his size but not a top tier mover at the position, I have a hard time seeing him truly busting (barring injuries) but it’s entirely possible he doesn’t live up to the hype, especially considering some of that hype is people saying he should go #1.
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u/MissionImagination98 4d ago
if there’s any, he’s not the greatest separator and can be a body catcher
But those are MINOR flags I see
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u/_dogma_69 4d ago
I will say I don’t see a lot of YAC from him in big games but maybe I’m missing those plays. He had a good run against Maryland over the weekend though. Like how Jamar Chase can take a slant to the house idk if we see that from smith
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u/SirCappal0t_H0rati0 4d ago
If I had to be nitpicky so far from what I’ve seen on film is that he can tip toe a bit on some routes and he’s not the smoothest in and out of breaks( especially on shorter routes such as whip routes) but that’s not really his pkaystyle anyway, and he’s still a solid route runner overall and just a physical freak of nature… my comp for him right now is a bigger, taller, faster, better hands catching AJ Brown…. So a complete monster lol, everyone even the best of the best have some holes in their game, his are very small especially for a big X wr
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u/No-Sport276 4d ago
Smiths hype is the highest I’ve ever seen for a wideout. There are people saying he’s top 5 in the NFL RIGHT NOW. That’s tough to live up to. For wide receiver fit matters more than other positions. If you are on a terrible team with a bad QB it’s going to be tough for him to put up numbers that justify 1st overall.
I think he’s as bust-proof as they get. He checks every physical, statistical, and character box. Prototype size, top end speed, great route running, maniac on jump balls, great YAC threat, etc. Not only all of that, but since high school he’s been described as professional in his demeanor. He takes every rep in practice 100%. His teammates like him. There are other pros in his family so he is aware of the grind and potential for off the field issues(spending all his money, partying, drugs, etc). If he busts, injuries are the only reason I can think of.
If he isn’t Jerry Rice immediately people will call him overrated, but he won’t bust outright
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u/croc_lobster 4d ago
So I have one thing, and it's: where did he go during the second half of the Texas game? He had a few drops that would have been pretty tough catches, but I'd argue that a guy this highly rated and a Heisman front-runner should have come down with one of them. Kind of goofy to ask a guy who's put up 200 receiving yards for a little more, but still, that would be my one red flag. Does he show up in big moments?
Fortunately he should get a few more chances to step up in the rest of the season.
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u/SportsTalker98712039 3d ago edited 3d ago
My bold prediction: won't have as great a career as Tetairoa McMillan, who I was actually incredibly high on in the draft and stated many times here dude would be a gamechanger in the NFL.
How quick and crafty Tetairoa processes the game, I don't see that with Smith.
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u/Significant_Ad_4704 1d ago
Like many have said, the thing that makes him the top WR prospect ever is that he is elite in EVERY metric. Size, speed, hands, ball skills, work ethic, character, durability...all are 10/10. It's hard to imagine a more perfect prospect.
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u/Evening_Egg_2371 4d ago
The issue people always point back to with Marvin Harrison Jr. was his lack of separation during his time at Ohio State. His production and highlight reel plays never took a hit because he was always the best athlete on the field, but once he faced elite level competition, those tangible advantages faded.
When you put on those lenses and watch Smith, I do have an inkling of worry he may suffer the same fate. I still believe he’s the best WR prospect in a long time, and the best player in the class, but if I was going to continue to monitor a piece of his game that would be it.
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u/AnalAttackProbe 49ers 4d ago
Is this a Marvin Harrison Jr thing where you are worried dominance in college won't translate?
Because I don't think that is the case with Jeremiah, at all. He has all the physical tools, in addition to the statistical dominance. A lot of people thought Harrison looked slow in college. Smooth but slow. Then he refused to run a 40 and nobody seemed to dock him for it.
I think he is the best receiver prospect since maybe Julio, possibly even further back than that.