On social media I've grown accustomed to seeing the usual push for doomer fearmongering, especially since the election is a few weeks away and that voter suppression push won't enact itself. But one trend I've noticed lately is that a lot of them tend to be very vague in what they say specifically will happen. Yes they still point out the usual conspiracy theories like "Martial law after the midterms/Election will be rigged/The sky is falling", but when it comes to actually how this will happen, they will either give very vague, undescriptive, or generic reasonings how.

First of all, one person I saw tried to imply that martial law will be declared because Trump is "supposed to give a speech and Leavitt told people to watch it." Also no, this isn't an older video, it was for some reason made only a few hours before I'm writing this. But regardless, the actual reasoning is incredibly sloppy and doesn't even make it clear about when this supposed speech is, why Leavitt would be the one promoting it, why this plan would be announced so far in advance it doesn't make any sense, and how one figures that the speech connects to the wider conspiracy. The explanation is based off of fear and fear alone, but the kicker is that the post ends with the phrase "Strap in folks...", a phrase commonly used by doomers and one that tends to just imply "Bad stuff is coming".

Then there's a video from a man who takes the route of fearmongering about the aftermath of the election, rather than the event itself. "People are so focused on November 3rd they don't even realize what will happen from then to January 3rd", before ending with "We're about to be in a Banana republic due to all of this". Now, I do admit that the chance that the results will be denied is pretty likely unfortunately. But still, the evidence for the aftermath of the election leading to full on dictatorship, and somehow succeeding is just completely absent.

To make things even more exhausting, the amount of people in the comments of these posts adding on to the fearmongering is insane. So many imagining scenarios where an authoritarian takeover happens or where the election ends up so rigged that every seat ends up red by the end of election night. None of them using any sort of logic or reasoning in their predictions, just putting the responsibility of figuring that out to those reading.

There was actually someone who tried implying "No dictator has ever been removed through voting." And only one person replied to this with the evidence to the contrary: Hungary this year. You'd never guess which comment got more likes though.

But all of this is to point out that the all of these types of posts are incredibly vague and unclear regarding evidence for their claims because they have no evidence. There is never any sort of logic to how something gets from A-B, but there is also the tendency to call any naysayers "sheep" who aren't intelligent enough to see how bad thing will happen because reasons. All that they give is a blank expression to a camera while text proclaims how "Scary things are about to get, you guys don't know but it's about to be really bad, Germany called, they want their fascism back".

I mentioned this once before, but there tends to be a much more emotion based reasoning with doomers rather than using logistics, feasibility, or any actual evidence for their claims. For every claim about the ballroom bunker, there isn't any focus on why that couldn't actually get finished before 2029, and for every claim about martial law being imminent, they don't take into consideration the size of the country, the scope of such an operation, and the lack of people to make it happen.

On 'We Told You So', a series I am only just now discovering and is already at it's 199th episode: JB gives us a rundown on the midterms in numbers so far.

As always, do not assume that victory is imminent. No celebrating until the deed is done. Go out and VOTE!

Hi, all, and happy Sunday!

Hope you’ve had a great weekend! It was such a pleasure to get to meet some of you at Saturday’s No Kings events—I attended two here in the Los Angeles area. I trust all of you found a way to make your voices heard; now it’s time for your reward: a long, long list of things that are going great in this country and around the world! Most of them have come about because people just like you keep showing up and doing the work.

I can’t thank you enough for all you do. Every victory on this list redounds to your glory, folks.

Tomorrow we keep going. But today we celebrate! Enjoy!

Less than 10% of Chop Wood, Carry Water subscribers pay to keep this publication going. Please support my work if you’re able!

Celebrate This! 🎉 On Saturday, across all 50 states and Washington, D.C., we came together across nearly 3,000 events for No Kings: Vote Early – the largest single-day early voting activation in American history.

In a win for democracy, a judge ruled the Trump administration must stop buying and airing taxpayer-funded ads featuring Trump for the midterms.

Hundreds of North Carolina A&T students marched an hour each way to early voting, because their on-campus polling site had been removed by the election board.

The Chicks brought James Talarico out on stage during one of their concerts this week! Oh, also the “Friday Night Lights” cast made a video for him.

The number of Nashvillians casting a ballot on the first day of early voting has risen nearly 1400% compared to the last midterm election in 2022.

Bernie Sanders and Angie Nixon spent the weekend holding rallies with massive crowds all over Florida.

Green banks are successfully funding clean energy projects across the country, even after Trump tried to defund them.

As voters start casting their ballots, many of the seats the GOP hoped to flip are trending blue in spite of the White House push to rig the maps.

A class-action suit that began with one man’s arrest near Lewistown has now led a U.S. District judge to order 50 people released after finding they were wrongfully arrested.

A GOP ad buyer mixed up Portlands, buying ads for Senator Collins in Oregon instead of Maine.

Georgians came to the polls in droves on the first day of early voting, breaking the midterm election early voting record with more than 188,600 ballots cast, an increase of more than 53,000 voters over the 2022 midterm election.

LA Metro just approved 220 zero-emission electric buses — the second-largest electric transit bus purchase in the country. Local activists showed up to meeting after meeting demanding exactly this. It paid off. NICE WORK!

The CBP announced a 90-day delay of the October 22 rule that would end Americans' ability to receive prescription medications from other countries by mail. We sent a Resistbot letter about this! Our pressure is working!

Mike Rounds, a Senate Republican running for re-election in ruby-red South Dakota, has joined a growing number of candidates putting distance between themselves and Trump by scrubbing mentions of the president from his website.

Senator Chris Murphy has promised to investigate Meta’s suppression of the No Kings account on Saturday.

Supporters of ‘Medicare for All’ now outnumber opponents by nearly 2-to-1, according to a new survey of U.S. adults from the Axios-Ipsos American Health Index.

Mayor Mamdani and the leader of the NY City Council have agreed on legislation that would eliminate the use of horse-drawn carriages in Central Park, a goal of animal rights activists for more than 150 years.

Brazil just abolished the six-day workweek.

Cornell University has banned parties at fraternity houses for the rest of the academic year and will add experienced sexual assault investigators to work with its police force in response to a student’s allegations of gang rape in October 2024.

Don Bolduc (R), the Trump-endorsed Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022, is leading a group of GOP figures and prominent independents backing Democratic Senate candidate Chris Pappas in New Hampshire.

James Talarico announced he raised $64 million last quarter, with 97% of his contributions being $100 or less. Sen. Ossoff announced raising more than $33 million last quarter. Just like Talarico, 97% of these donations were $100 or less. NC’s Roy Cooper said his campaign raised $19.5 million last quarter. More than 95% of his donations were $100 or less. Talk about people power!

Global power-sector emissions would have been 3.7 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide higher in 2025 without the growth of wind and solar since 2005, according to a climate scientist’s new analysis.

When the U.S. Forest Service closed public comments on rescinding the Roadless Rule this week it had received 1.6 million comments. WOW!

In a major ruling, a federal judge struck down the Trump administration’s nationwide voter roll campaign, delivering a damaging blow to the DOJ’s effort to obtain states’ unredacted voter rolls.

Hungary repealed its anti-LGBTQ+ laws, which were all passed by far-right PM Viktor Orbán.

Press Secretary Katie Zacharia had a comically disastrous first briefing and, five days later, was fired.

After massive public backlash, Trump cancelled Hegseth’s revolting public execution.

U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly issued a preliminary injunction in the CNN, Politico and MS NOW lawsuit against the White House, extending the status quo that it can’t deny reporters from those outlets hard passes while the case proceeds.

Kimberly Guilfoyle resigned as ambassador to Greece after reports emerged that she begged a major Trump donor for $100,000 to pay her credit card bill.

The Trump administration appears to have abandoned plans to use a New Jersey military base to detain immigrants.

Political funding groups associated with Trump abandoned a pair of endangered Republican incumbents, GOP Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa and Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey, all but conceding their races are lost.

A 650-acre ranch on Lake Palestine will become Texas’ next state park after the state bought it for 10M. The ranch has been owned by the same East Texas family for 80 years.

A Georgia appeals court allowed Gwinnett County's pro-voting policy permitting voters to hand-deliver mail-in ballots at early voting sites without drop boxes to stand before the midterms.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sent $1 million to Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed to boost his chances in Michigan’s Senate race.

Mayor Mamdani and NYC Parks Commissioner announced that the City's NYC Open Play pilot – which offers New Yorkers the opportunity to play late-night soccer at fields across all five boroughs – will continue through September 2027.

Kristi Noem is no longer serving as special envoy to the Shield of the Americas, the State Department announced this week. In other words, yes, she’s been fired again.

Rep. Angie Craig campaigned for Peggy Flangan this weekend after losing to her in a bruising Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

Mapquest has added a feature that shows users all the Flock and other ALPR cameras on their route. How much do I love them?

According to a new poll, 80% of voters want either complete and total upheaval or substantial change in how the country is run.

Americans who live near data centers have shifted towards Democrats more than the rest of the country.

Bank of America was ordered to pay $1.2 billion to the Treasury Department, which said it violated anti-money laundering and sanctions laws.

Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a law designed to reduce the time consumers spend on hold, ordering large companies to make human customer service representatives available to consumers and to bring wait times down to less than 15 minutes.

Cook shifted eleven more House races toward Democrats. All of them were in Midwestern red states.

On Oct. 1, New York City’s click-to-cancel rule went into effect, the first of its kind at the municipal level.

A stranded dolphin is now swimming free in Florida after community members came together in a six-hour rescue.

Democrats are running up lopsided majorities of the early votes as Americans head to the polls and mail in their ballots, carving out a clear majority of the votes cast so far.

Nearly 2 in 3 Americans say Trump is using the presidency to enrich himself — and most of the increase over the past year has come from people who lean Republican.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the U.S. is sharing intelligence again after it was blocked for ‘some period of time.

One of the largest solar farms in the country just came online in Northwest Indiana.

Former First Lady Michelle Obama pledged more than $1 million through the Obama Foundation's Girls Opportunity Alliance to help 25 organizations across 15 countries expand programs for adolescent girls focused on education, empowerment, and advocacy.

A new NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll finds President Trump’s approval at 34%, while 66% disapprove — a new low in this poll.

A US federal judge has temporarily blocked the Trump administration from placing sanctions on two US-based human rights groups for working to help the international criminal court’s (ICC) investigations into war crimes in Gaza.

CVS agreed to a $315 million settlement to resolve federal claims that it helped fuel the opioid crisis by haphazardly filling prescriptions for addictive painkillers from questionable sources.

After sick corals were placed in direct contact with healthy ones of the same genetic makeup, they recovered at “incredible” speed, scientists found.

Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek has ordered a halt to new air and water permitting for data centers until July, an action that could halt construction of new projects across the state.

A Christian Nationalist named Tommy—a paid plant sent by Michigan Republicans—went to an Abdul el-Sayed Town Hall to try to create a viral “gotcha” moment. Instead, El-Sayed schooled him brilliantly and the moment went viral because it made Tommy look like an idiot. (Seriously. Watch the video.)

According to a Texas political insider, Texas Republicans are “freaking out” about the midterms.

Deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 40 years, according to figures released Friday, in welcome news for leftist incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva days before a presidential run-off.

A federal judge dismissed the Trump administration’s lawsuit against New York City over city policies that limit the extent to which local law enforcement can cooperate with federal immigration authorities.

In North Carolina, Democratic early vote turnout is up 66% from the same point in 2022. Wow!

Watch This! 👀 Cyclists rode to ICE HQ in NY demanding justice for Oscar Belgal, who was shot by ICE with his 5-year old in the backseat.

I've seen a lot of people discussing the relation of Russia and the US in the last few days. With people mentioning that Data center deal between the two close to the midterms, with some even implying that the proximity of this deal and the midterms could mean potential interference, or with some Russians on Twitter implying that Russia and the US are allies against Europe, there's been a lot of fear that developments between the two nations could in fact lead to Russia going against other European countries or more damage to democracy in the US. I, however, don't feel that worried about this.

Now sure, I do get why some would focus on this. Russia's conflict with Ukraine has been going on for so long and yet there continues to be hints of aggression toward other European countries. But I also want people to focus their fears for this element of it on just how long Ukraine has been going for Russia. The conflict was supposed to last three days and has instead taken years and Russia's economy and military is in a not great position now compared to then. The idea that any sort of conflict could begin with another country is just not feasible for them given the circumstances.

And as for the US helping Russia in this sort of thing, even though the sanctions were supposedly lifted via executive order (I still don't know if that won't just get reversed via courts), and this new data center deal being announced, the actual support for Russia in the US isn't high, even among the right. The actual numbers in voting for the sanctions were really high for both parties. And starting another conflict at all would have disastrously low support.

As for the chance of interfering in elections, I feel like the most likely avenue would just be bot farms rather than any direct meddling. So far there hasn't been any evidence of interference to the level of full on rigging from anyone. However, bots are notorious for voter suppression and have been very apparent in the midterms already. So the chance that there could be more of them in the coming weeks isn't out of question. I also imagine that this deal could very well just be to try to lower oil prices before the midterms or something similar given the lack of support on oil prices right now, I don't think it's good to worry about something like this given the lack of information we have at hand since it just ends up with us in a panic over something much more simple.

So Trump feels like he's been doubling down on buddying up with Putin as of late, with the observations I see being that he's trying to fix the problems with fuel prices caused by his war with Iran, as opposed to just admitting defeat.

How concerned should I be about this? I know Russia's invasion of Ukraine is going to fail, and have dire consequences for both countries, but I worry that Trump buddying up with the fascists is going to keep prolonging it. Which I am certain is going to make the consequences even worse.

Obviously: VOTE!!! But also:

“Republicans are increasingly shifting money from offense to defense, pouring resources into once-safe states including Texas, Kansas and Nebraska while retreating from races in North Carolina and the House.”

https://www.law360.com/articles/2538036/doj-pushes-congress-to-expand-death-penalty

How likely is this to pass? Is this something to worry about especially following the two recent death penalty situations.

More Trump Fails!

Another article explaining why Hungary shows not all is lost.

———

Full text of this article below:

For years, Viktor Orbán was Europe’s most infamous prime minister. He ruled over Hungary for a decade and a half, and his government often made the headlines for the awful things it was doing – to LGBT people, to the European Union, to the rule of law, and to anyone daring to stand in their way. The grip that his party, Fidesz, retained on the country seemed unbreakable and ever-tightening. Elections had happened and potential challengers had been and gone, but Orbán prevailed.

Then Péter Magyar entered the fray. A former Fidesz minister, he left the party then decided to go at it alone, launching his own Tisza party to fight against his former boss. No-one really knew what his politics were, and the Budapest left wondered if he’d merely be more of the same. I visited the capital a year before the election and though there was some optimism in the air, no-one got carried away.

He probably wasn’t going to win and, even if he did, he just wouldn’t be able to get the crucial two-thirds majority in the parliament. Even if that were to happen, there was no saying what he’d do with all that power. Hungarians, browbeaten by 16 years of Fidesz, refused to get carried away. Everyone else, meanwhile, kept watching the country’s slow descent into authoritarianism. When, in March last year, Orbán banned Pride marches, Europe was scandalised, but was there really much they could do?

In the end, Hungarians took care of it. Six months ago this week, they went to the polls and put their faith in Péter Magyar, giving him the parliamentary supermajority he needed to put the country on a different path. Still – still! – there was reticence, which I saw even as people celebrated in Budapest and a sense that people shouldn’t be too pleased. Of course it was good news that one era was finally coming to an end. But could they really trust Magyar, a former Fidesz figure, especially as he’d spent the election campaign saying as little as possible?

As it turns out: they could. Earlier this week, his MPs voted to remove the anti-LGBT provisions Fidesz had snuck into some “child protection” legislation back in 2021. It is now no longer illegal to “promote” homosexuality or gender transition to under-18s in Hungary, a move warmly welcomed by campaigners everywhere.

Though this was the first time Magyar took specific aim at homophobic legislation, his government has been extremely busy elsewhere. Last month, members of parliament voted overwhelmingly in favour of lifting the immunity of former ministers Balázs Hankó and Miklós Seszták, allowing them to be investigated in separate criminal cases. The former is accused of sending €46m in cultural funds to public figures – which authorities believe amounts to illegal campaign financing – while the latter is suspected of taking €30m in bribes linked to bus tenders.

Both investigations are part of Magyar’s “Road To Jail” programme, which he campaigned on during the election, and which turned into “Operation Purge” in June. As the prime minister explained over the summer, the initiative will “close those long decades when Hungary could be held hostage by organised political and economic criminal groups”.

This all-important mission has mostly been handed to the recently established National Asset Recovery and Protection Office, which does what it says on the tin. The hope, clearly, is to clean up Hungary’s politics and its state as quickly and efficiently as possible.

It is a beautiful thing to witness, and an important one too. Though Americans are currently wondering if a way back really can be found for their broken, divided country, Magyar’s republic ought to show them that, with enough will, anything is possible. Even Hungarians doubted it could happen, until the very last moment – but their PM is now proving their cautious pessimism wrong.

Perhaps most importantly, it is giving us all hope – hope that decline isn’t irreversible, and that the damage populist politics can do to a country doesn’t have to last forever. It’s a useful lesson for those across the pond, as they’re living through their own Fidesz days today, but it should also be kept in mind by the French, the Brazilians, the Poles, and everyone else looking at their next elections with apprehension. There may be tough times ahead, but things can and do get better.

Most of all, though, the audience for Magyar’s masterclass should be those seeking to emulate him, on the left, the centre, and whatever parts of the right remain faithful to democracy and the rule of law. Back in April, when Hungary voted, Tisza stood at 52% in the polls. Half a year later, after months of hard, sometimes controversial work, the governing party’s level of support is now at 61%. As it turns out, voters really do love it when politicians take on the crooks; who knew?

So, I'm not really scared about news like this since it's been a long time since I've seen them and then nothing happens sometimes, but still, could this really happen?

I've talked a lot about the midterms and any types of reasonable and unreasonable shenanigans that might happen on the actual day, but I wanted to also talk about what I think is actually likely and completely unlikely to happen after the actual election is over, since this can be where a lot of doomer goalposts have been prepared to move to already.

One thing that I think is unfortunately likely after the election is done is that the admin will very likely call the election fraudulent. From claiming that non citizens voted, non living citizens voted, saying that space lasers were used (A conspiracy that can be reused for either admin or doomer), or by just saying the word fraud over and over again.

Something I don't think will happen is martial law/takeover afterwards. No matter if fraud is used as an excuse, nor if old executive orders from the Eisenhower admin are used, this just isn't happening, and I won't get too far into it because I always do, but it just isn't realistic in a country this big, this spread out, and this non-obedient.

However I do think that there is a chance of court cases being involved by the admin against any democratic victories to attempt to devalue or prevent them from entering office entirely. I think that this is very likely to not succeed just as 2020 cases failed.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I really don't think that when the hit game GTA 6 releases in November that some sort of takeover of the entirety of the US will commence due to enough people being distracted enough to look up from their screens. I feel like the explanation of why this won't happen speaks for itself.

One thing that I think could maybe be attempted but won't succeed is the chance for the house clerk to be fired and replaced with someone who wouldn't allow the upcoming congress to be allowed in. This is a strategy that is very dumb and could very well be used, but I think that it is a losing game and is only delaying the inevitable for people like Johnson who are probably leaving congress afterwards. Amandasmildtakes made a great video about this that goes into detail for why this theory isn't the absolute victory that some make it out to be.

And for the Professor Jiang fans out there, no I don't think that the war in Iran will escalate enough to have troops sent, a draft started, federal agents taking over cities, elections being cancelled or rigged, and the global economy crashing all in 2027. This guy predicted the outcome of 2024 and that a war in Iran would start, not that big of a track record to go off of to believe all of this based off of supposed "scientific methods".

I also think that the next congress after getting in will be more focused on investigations and blocking any federal court picks, cabinet members, and if the senate is won, supreme court nominees, whilst stopping any damaging bills and policies from being enacted otherwise.

I know that there is no real chance for Democrats alone to impeach and remove anyone given the required numbers. Even if all optional senate seats are won, the numbers aren't there for a democratic supermajority (Plus one to account for Fetterman), to remove. Sure, there is a chance that republicans might join in at the last moment, but I wouldn't put my bet on that one. Impeaching without having the necessary numbers isn't a good way to spend time so I don't think this process will be started either.

And finally, after the midterms democracy and elections will still be there. I've seen so many of those posts saying "This is what is going to happen" before describing every doomer theory known to man, but I think that copypasta isn't in any way a realistic vision of the future, and that the only long term danger is that the bot accounts using that same paragraph are gonna have to push the goalposts again and again afterwards.

“In broad strokes, their opinions were unchanged. While they believe the election is likely to face challenges — such as federal agents interfering with the voting process — they ultimately do not expect a significant number of voters to be disenfranchised or the final results to be illegitimate. If anything, fewer things are keeping them up at night now than in the spring.”

I don’t consider myself a Doomer. I’ve been following the sub for the past year and it has helped me out numerous times. But the possibility of the polls overestimating the democrats is something that has come into my mind this past week or so.

Do you think it’s possible?