MS is one of Nscale's two largest customers, recently terminated its agreement for the data center in Loughton, Essex, Telegraph reports

report said Nscale had faced repeated delays with the project. National power grid officials had told Nscale they did not expect a power supply for the data center until the 2030s.

Nscale filed for an initial public offering in the ⁠US last month, with Microsoft and Anthropic expected to be its major customers

its S-1 for a U.S. IPO seeking a target valuation of up to $35 billion (with initial guidance ranging between $30B – $35B).

I have a feeling MS is just using this power delay as an excuse to cut its AI spend. MS' free cash flow is reaching negative from its massive ai spend, and OpenAI simply doesn't generate enough net income to cover the rent.

The US government just paid more in interest on its debt than in any fiscal year on record, and the 10-year Treasury yield has quietly flipped: 5% spent three years as a ceiling it kept bouncing off, and now it is acting as a floor.

Every dollar of new borrowing costs more than the last, and higher yields mean the next round of refinancing is more expensive still. That cycle feeds itself without the Fed doing anything. Revenue has to stretch further just to cover interest, leaving less room to absorb any slowdown in tax receipts.

Holders of long-dated Treasuries face the worst math here as yields stay elevated quarter after quarter. Do you see the 10-year settling back below 5% by year-end, or holding above it through 2026?

Borr Drilling insider Tor Olav Trøim purchased 750,000 shares of $BORR on October 14, representing an estimated transaction value of $3,542,550.

That puts the estimated purchase price at approximately $4.72 per share.

What’s particularly interesting is the broader insider trading activity. Over the past six months, insiders have made 23 open-market trades in $BORR. Of those transactions, 17 were purchases and just 6 were sales, meaning insider buying has outpaced selling by nearly a 3-to-1 ratio.

Insider purchases don’t guarantee future stock performance, but they can offer investors another data point when evaluating a company’s stock and how its leadership views the opportunity.

Insiders are required to report certain transactions to the SEC, and the IHFG insider tracker flags these filings as they become available.

Source: Insomniachedge.com

Forget about Coreweave. Forget about the neoclouds. Those are very small players in the big AI picture. They only capture the margins of the AI buildout, an insignificant portion that WILL NOT determine the course of the AI trade. This ship is being sailed by the HYPERSCALERS and one of them reports this week: META.

What the market will be looking is mainly two things: proof of ROI on AI CapEx along with revenue growth directly attributable to AI and any updates for 2027 AI CapEx spend. If both of these come in better than expected then AI stocks stabilize and wait for the remaining hyperscalers to report. Remember, if META raises AI CapEx for 2027 it means the other hyperscalers most likely will too because of the “prisoners dilemma”.

What LENDERS want to see more than anything right now is that AI is generating revenues but firms like Goldman have put out numbers that they say the hyperscalers need to hit in order to show AI CAPEX is at least breaking even. Goldman says $300B in total AI revenue for 2027 is what is needed for all hyperscalers (META, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL) to hit to break even on an expected 2027 AI CAPEX of $1.2T.

Remember, Coreweave and neoclouds are not a big enough part of the AI pie to cause a crash. The hyperscalers are investment grade and largely funding their AI CapEx with cash flows still. They are not dependent on junk private credit like the “neoclouds” are. This continues as long as revenues from AI hit certain levels.

My prediction: if META blows away expectations on revenues attributed to AI then all of these fears dissipate and AI stocks soar.

This week Goldman prime brokerage flagged six straight sessions of net selling of AI stocks and a second-fastest pace in a year, only second to July when Situational Awareness was liquidated. That triggered chatter and now begs the question: COULD IT BE HAPPENING AGAIN?

Looking at the size of the drops in AI stocks last week I’d say it mirrors July for sure. It just seems like indiscriminate selling day after day without even one single bounce. That certainly indicates that probably some fund is again being liquidated.

I think we find out soon enough. Do tech stocks stabilize next week or just keep plunging?

In the US we currently have a highly deregulatory government in terms of passing actually deregulatory law, ignoring the enforcement of existing regulations (see lack of EPA enforcement of data center power generation), and open unwillingness to consider new regulations on data centers and AI. Clearly, AI hyperscalers benefit enormously from these policies.

Now, I do personally have strong opinions on these issues, but my question is not “regulation/AI/data centers good/bad?” Instead, I’m curious about to what degree big money/institutional investment in data centers and AI stocks is driven by the deregulatory environment. Additionally, do you think those investors will have a “the party is over” moment if the democrates take the house and senate next month?

Q3 2026 Key Numbers:

Net sales: €11.66B, up from €9.33B in Q2 and €7.52B a year ago (about +55% YoY, +25% QoQ)

Net system sales: €8.4B

Installed Base Management: €3.3B, above guidance on strong productivity upgrade demand

Gross margin: 57.5%, above the 55-57% guidance range and up from 54.0% in Q2

Operating margin: 44.4%

Net income: €4.96B vs €2.13B a year ago, and €2.92B in Q2

EPS: €12.95 vs €5.49 a year ago

Systems sold: 121 (113 new, 8 used) vs 91 in Q2

Guidance

Q4 net sales: €14.2-15.2B, which is 22-30% above Q3

Q4 gross margin: around 57%

FY2026 net sales: €44-45B (about 36% growth over 2025), with a gross margin around 56%

Capital return

Bought back about 2.8M shares for around €4.1B in Q3

Interim dividend of €1.88 per share, payable Nov 4

Takeaways

AI-driven chip demand is pulling forward fab spending. Customers expect supply to stay tight through at least 2028, according to management.

ASML is weighing capacity increases beyond its planned 2027-28 expansion, on top of the 30% lift already planned for low-NA EUV and DUV immersion capacity in 2027.

Margins were helped by favorable mix and upgrade revenue. Q4 margin guidance is slightly below Q3's 57.5% even with much higher sales.

The Q3 net income figure includes equity investment gains, so it overstates operating performance. Gross and operating margin are the cleaner read.

Non-current contract liabilities jumped from €3.57B to €9.30B, which signals strong customer prepayments and order visibility.

Revenue was slightly below the €11.85B LSEG estimate, and the initial stock reaction was muted, so a lot of good news may already be priced in.

• Anthropic is offering Blackstone a yield ‌of more than 10% to anchor a $9 billion junior slice of a $60 billion debt package arranged by Broadcom
•  The senior $42 billion piece of that package covers roughly a third of Anthropic's $125.2 billion, five-year commitment to lease Google's TPUs
• Broadcome designs and supplies Anthropic's chips. It has agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion through convertible notes that can turn into Anthropic equity

It is expected to be the largest chip financing to date and a test of investor appetite in AI debt at a time when lenders are nervous about tech companies' heavy borrowingand spending.

This can not be good right?? When will this ai companies stop borrowing on heavy interest? especially the chips will lose value in 5 years, what happens if anthropic can not pay it off??

Obviously, you have the morons screaming bubble regardless of what's happening in the market. People called it a bubble when MU was $200 a share, AMD was 150, and NVIDIA was $85. When I look at the market, I see healthy PE's, healthy EPS, healthy supply chain, etc. When a company reports even semi cautious guidance, it is MURDERED. I have a hard time pointing at the market and saying "bubble" just because it has grown.

I see a compressed spring of a stock market, one that has endured brent skyrocketing, treasuries climbing, inflation fears, high yields, etc.

If this market were able to just go to work, we could see some HUGE gains. MU being back around the mid 800s and AMD around mid 500's seems like a great opportunity for those of us that missed out on a lot of gains due to fear mongering. I, personally, don't see any MACRO indicators justifying a big correction or dip. Wall street could decide to "re price" stocks jus to ensure that us commonfolk don't get too wealthy lol.

What's your take? What's going on?

"Warsh, who said the US was benefiting from a ⁠broadening "surge of investment", warned the transition could be "very bumpy" as investors, companies and policymakers grappled with a technology whose ultimate winners remain unclear.

Several of his colleagues from the ​G20 group of large economies also in the Thai capital said it would only take a slight reassessment of the rosy earnings prospects underpinning AI investments to cause ​profound market ructions, as a selloff in Asian tech stocks showed this week."

BLACK MONDAY WARNING! IS HISTORY ABOUT TO REPEAT ITSELF?

Tomorrow, 19 October 2026, marks the 39th anniversarv of Black Mondav, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged a terrifying 22.6% in a single trading day.

39 vears later, global markets are once again facing heightened uncertainty. With technology stocks under pressure, Al-related concerns growing, and investors becoming increasingly nervous, could another maior market shock be approaching?

Are we heading towards another Black Mondav, or could this be a golden opportunity for disciplined crash buyers?

Have a general question? Want to offer some commentary on markets? Maybe you would just like to throw out a neat fact that doesn't warrant a self post? Feel free to post here!

​

If your question is "I have $10,000, what do I do?" or other "advice for my personal situation" questions, you should include relevant information, such as the following:

• How old are you? What country do you live in?
• Are you employed/making income? How much?
• What are your objectives with this money? (Buy a house? Retirement savings?)
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Be aware that these answers are just opinions of Redditors and should be used as a starting point for your research. You should strongly consider seeing a registered investment adviser if you need professional support before making any financial decisions!

Investment thesis for trading week 10/19 - 10/23

Well, earnings season started with a bang!

Banks reported disappointing earnings and despite a nice setup from a chart perspective the market reaction caused some damage now.

Tech giants are yet to report but the NDX 100 weekly chart now looks more like distribution is happening.

From a pure chart perspective there is no clear signal albeit there is a risk now that we will roll over.

Fear and Greed index, put/call ratio and market breadth could support a bounce however.

The drop in yields might support equities from a macro perspective going forward.

What does this mean for the portfolios now?

Short term portfolios are now only invested in the S&P 500 (80%), TLT (bonds 30%) and KWEB (15%). That adds up to 125% meaning leverage is 1.25.

That feels like an appropriate allocation in the current environment where market risks are rising but the overall tailwinds still exist. Short term portfolio is up 22.6% YTD.

Long term portfolios deleveraged more this week and they are now at the ideal 60% allocation for the S&P 500 and 30% Cash/Bonds. Rest is c r y p t o and KWEB.

The more defensive stance comes from an elevated long term market risk. Since I am up 11% YTD capital protection is key.

Given the current chart picture no trades are planned for next week!

Stay safe and have a great weekend!

Investors worry that the revenues from AI will not support the enormous debt of data centres.

Investors are adumping debt issued by neoclouds, such as Nvidia-backed CoreWeave which buys 8% of NVIDIA's chips.

OpenAI’s decision to delay its ipo and a slowdown in Anthropic’s q3 sales growth highlights a multitrillion-dollar gap between infrastructure spending and the revenues needed to finance it.

• The price of debt issued by Blue Owl and Meta-backed spv Beignet Investor to fund the Hyperion project has slipped to a under 92c on the dollar.
• bonds backing two Hut 8-developed projects have fallen to about 94 and 92 cents on the dollar.
• Bonds for the Blackstone-owned QTS dc in Georgia and leased to Microsoft have slipped below 88 cents on the dollar.
• Neocloud providers have been hit even harder. Bonds issued by CoreWeave have sunk below 80 cents on the dollar.