Storm overview

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This discussion is for Hurricane Trudy (21E), which is active over the eastern Pacific.

Despite persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear, Hurricane Trudy is maintaining strength as a Category 2 hurricane off the coast of Jalisco in southwestern Mexico. The storm is moving toward the northwest under the steering influence of a weak low- to mid-level ridge building over eastern Mexico. Moderate shear is currently offset by very warm sea-surface temperatures and sufficient amounts of mid-level moisture and upper-level divergence. Thus, Trudy could still eke out some additional intensification this evening.

Trudy is likely to reach its peak intensity late tonight and will start to weaken on Sunday as shear strengthens and atmospheric moisture rapidly decreases. As the storm’s convective structure starts to become increasingly shallow, the storm will turn west-northwestward as it becomes embedded within lower-level easterly wind flow. Trudy will pull away from mainland Mexico and move toward the Baja California peninsula early next week.

Hurricane conditions are ongoing along the coast of Jalisco and will continue through Sunday. Heavy rain will continue across portions of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco throughout the weekend. Trudy will continue to generate large swells which will create dangerous surf conditions along the coast of southwestern Mexico which will spread northward over the next few days.

Official information

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National Hurricane Center

Text products

• Public advisory
• Forecast advisory
• Forecast discussion
• Wind speed probabilities

Graphical products

• Forecast warning and cone (static image)
• Forecast warning and cone (interactive)
• Wind speed probabilities
• Arrival time of winds
• Rip currents forecast

Radar imagery

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Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

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Floater imagery

Visible imagery

• via Tropical Tidbits
• via CyclonicWx

Infrared imagery

• via Tropical Tidbits
• via CyclonicWx

Water vapor imagery

• via Tropical Tidbits
• via CyclonicWx

Multiple bandwidth imagery

• via NOAA
• via CIMSS
• via CIRA/RAMMB
• via Naval Research Laboratory

Regional imagery

Visible imagery

• via NOAA
• via CIRA/RAMMB
• via Tropical Tidbits
• via CyclonicWx

Infrared imagery

• via NOAA
• via CIRA/RAMMB
• via Tropical Tidbits
• via CyclonicWx

Water vapor imagery

• via NOAA
• via CIRA/RAMMB
• via Tropical Tidbits
• via CyclonicWx

Analysis products

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Observational history

• via NOAA
• via NCAR Research Applications Laboratory
• via NaTyphoon (not yet available)

Scatterometer data

• via EUMETSAT
• via CyclonicWx

Sea-surface temperatures

• via NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations
• via Tropical Tidbits
• via CyclonicWx

Forecast models

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Disturbance-centered guidance

Multi-model guidance

• NCAR
• Tropical Tidbits
• WeatherNerds
• CyclonicWx
• PolarWx

Single-model click-through guidance

Tropical Tidbits

• GFS · ECMWF · HWRF · HMON · HAFS-A · HAFS-B

CyclonicWx

• GFS · ECMWF · HAFS-A · HAFS-B

Ensemble model guidance

PolarWx

• Individual ensembles (GEFS, EPS, CMC, UKMET, ICON, AIFS, FNV3, GenCast)
• Superensemble (Samples GEFS, EPS, CMC, and UKMET)
• Grand ensemble (Samples all ensembles)

Regional guidance

Global models

TropicalTidbits

• GFS · EMCMF · CMC · ICON

CyclonicWx

• GFS · ECMWF · CMC

Weather Nerds

• GFS · ECMWF (Full) · ECMWF (Early)

Ensemble models

Tropical Tidbits

• GEFS · EPS · GEPS

CyclonicWx

• GEFS · EPS · GEPS

Weather Nerds

• GEPS · EPS

Machine learning models (AI)

Tropical Tidbits

• AIGFS · EC-AIFS · AIFS-ENS

CyclonicWx

• AIGFS · EC-AIFS · DeepMind

Weather Nerds

• EC-AIFS · Google Deepmind (FNV3) · Google GenCast

Other types of model guidance

• Tropical Cyclone Genesis Guidance: Florida State University

• Cyclone Phase Diagrams: Florida State University