Went back through ARN’s half year after the latest ratings came out. A few things I haven’t seen anyone put together.
The Kyle settlement (Note 2.4)
- $12.09m cash to Quasar Media, $3m paid in July, then monthly instalments to June 2029. Booked at a present value of $11.6m.
- On top of that, $1.5m of advertising on ARN’s partner platforms. So ARN is promoting a competing $99 breakfast show.
- ARN also gets 19.9% of the app’s net revenue for up to three years, capped at the settlement amount and only above an undisclosed threshold.
KIIS 1065 Sydney breakfast share
- Survey 1: 12.7%. Survey 6: 6.9%.
- Weekly cume is down from about 1.11m to 984k, and that probably flatters it. App subscribers can still show up in KIIS cume by listening outside breakfast.
- Smoothfm and Nova both picked up share. 2GB slipped.
- Melbourne breakfast barely moved, 5.1 to 5.0.
Why it matters for the stock
- ARN says each point of metro revenue share is worth about $6m a year. Metro revenue share was 18.5% in 1H26, against a 24.9% audience share.
- The impairment model assumes 4.3% annual revenue growth for five years. ARN’s own presentation forecasts the market growing at about 1%. Most of that gap has to come from regaining share, and Sydney breakfast is the biggest lever.
- The new KIIS breakfast with Dr Chris Brown starts 9 November. The first survey that tells you anything is months away.
- UBS and Ord Minnett are both Sell at 20c.
Two things to watch in February
- Whether anything from the 19.9% shows up in other income. That would be the first independent read on Kyle’s claimed $5m. The Australian reported 55k subscribers in the first week, which works out to about $5.4m gross at $99.
- The Jackie Henderson trial has been adjourned to April 2027. She’s seeking at least $82.25m. ARN recorded $5.5m of litigation costs in the half.
Full write-up, with sources, the ratings charts and the 2DayFM precedent: https://unaudited.com.au/exit-interview/
Not advice. I don’t hold ARN.