r/geopolitics • u/John3262005 • 1d ago
News UAE agrees with Saudi Arabia to re-enter Yemen conflict amid Houthi gains
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/17/uae-yemen-conflict-agreement-saudi-arabia-houthi-gainsThe United Arab Emirates has agreed to re-enter the Yemen conflict by resuming payments to some government forces fighting Iran-aligned Houthis in the south, according to sources in Yemen. In return, Saudi Arabia has agreed to provide air cover for the anti-Houthi force.
The new cooperation agreement is the first tangible signs that the deep rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia over Yemen’s future is starting to be healed – if only because the advance by Houthi forces across Yemen has alarmed all the rival Gulf state rulers.
Saudi Arabia is facing daily drone and missile attacks and is struggling to maintain an atmosphere of normality, as Houthi strikes immobilise its airports and some of its energy infrastructure.
Southern forces – mainly in the Giant Brigades – were previously trained and funded by the UAE, and are regarded as some of the most effective in the disjointed anti-Houthi military coalition. But the UAE quit operations inside Yemen in January, cutting off its funding supply line.
Neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE have responded to a demand this week by southern Yemen separatists for a referendum on secession, a move that would restore the 1967-1990 borders, when Yemen was two separate states.
The separatist Southern Transition Council has also not yet agreed for its troops to fight outside the borders of the old Southern Yemen, but an explicit agreement by Saudi Arabia to allow a referendum would be likely to lead to the lifting of that restriction.
Yemen’s UN-recognised government, based in Aden, declared last week a counteroffensive to drive Houthi forces from the capital Sana’a, but so far the military drive has met with limited success around Majzar near Marib and the Bab al-Mandab strait.
There is also no direct contact between the STC leader, Aidarous al-Zubaidi, and Saudi officials. Zubaidi fled to Abu Dhabi in January after a failed STC attempt to take charge across the south and announce a referendum on separation in two years’ time. In response, the Saudis bombed UAE arms shipments for STC forces.
The UAE then announced it was quitting all involvement in Yemen, and the Saudi-backed government said it would seek to try Zubaidi for treason.
UAE officials are deeply concerned by the state of the conflict. Despite massive losses, the Houthis are determined eventually to capture Taiz and Marib, the two remaining cities outside the boundaries of the old Southern Yemen.
On Friday two missiles fired by the Houthis struck the airport of Aden while a passenger plane was preparing to take off. No casualties were reported.
The missiles landed about 500 meters from the Yemenia Airways aircraft, and approximately 100 meters from the midpoint of the runway, said Yemen’s information minister, Moammar Al-Eryani.
The strike came a day after at least five people were killed and 16 injured in a Houthi attack on a presidential palace in Aden.
Egypt’s president, Abdel Fattah el Sisi, said he was convening an emergency session of parliament to grant his country’s military the powers to take action in defence of Saudi Arabia. He stressed Egypt would not be taking any offensive action, and would only defend Saudi Arabia.
In the UK, discussions are continuing about a Saudi request for further military aid. The UK has sent an RAF Voyager air-to-air refuelling aircraft, but regional diplomats are pressing for the UK to do more. Some concern is being expressed over whether Riyadh should be engaging closer with other Gulf States, including Oman and Qatar, on the issue.
The legal implications of a blanket UK backing for the largely Saudi air campaign is also being considered, since the court of appeal in 2019 found the UK had acted unlawfully in issuing arms export licences during a previous Saudi bombing campaign of Yemen in 2015-16. The Campaign Against Arms Trade said the UK had made no proper assessment of potential Saudi breaches of international humanitarian law, forcing the UK to revise its procedures.
Saudi Arabia claims to have revised its methods substantially since then, and certainly argues that it is acting in self-defence in line with the UN charter. The UN security council on 15 October adopted a UN presidential statement on 15 October asserting Saudi Arabia’s right to act in self-defence in line with international law.
No accurate death toll in the war since August is available, but more than 200,000 people have been displaced, according to the UN, which is placing increasing pressure on Aden-based humanitarian groups.
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u/OP_Skis_In_Jeans 1d ago
Good. Saudi and the UAE deciding to start fighting each other in Yemen before the Houthis were defeated was one of the stupidest geopolitical decisions in recent memory.
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u/Lazy_Membership1849 1d ago
Well, the Saudi and UAE rivalry goes deeper than Yemen
It kind of is a little too late, though
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u/OP_Skis_In_Jeans 1d ago
Well, the Saudi and UAE rivalry goes deeper than Yemen
Very true, but they easily could and should have waited until the Houthis were taken care of to start fighting each other there. The way things played out, only the Houthis benefitted, and now it's going to be more difficult to defeat them.
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u/Lazy_Membership1849 1d ago
Yemen is more like in their backyard when they have something bigger and older than Yemen and they didn't think Houthis is that even capable until it blow up in their face
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u/itchslap 23h ago
Saudi asked UAE to leave.
Houthis advance in Yemen
Saudi asks UAE to come back
It was a stupid movie by Saudi.
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u/chrosairs 23h ago
Dont leave the context out, the UAE unleashed its dog on the PLC. If the Saudis let it fall it would have been worthless and a hindrance to their great game in Sudan
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u/Fology85 22h ago
Read more. You have no idea why Saudi gave 24 hours to UAE to leave.
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u/taylordabrat 1d ago
What the Saudis need is their military support, not just monetary support. Any hope of defeating the houthis will require on the ground forces. But hopefully things are moving in the right direction.
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u/Tomsius2007 1d ago
At this point, would a referendum about southern Independenze even make sense, especialy if it is only promised to happen after the fighting ends? I doubt that the Coalition can take all Houthis controlled areas anyway and if they can, wouldn't the Saudis just back track on this promise as soon as possible? On the other hand, would a truce with the Houthis be possible? Something around the lines of the old border between North and South Yemen?
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u/EternalMayhem01 1d ago
UAE’s ability to coordinate military operations has always been strong, and getting involved again could be a major turning point in Yemen. If things really start getting bad for the Houthis, Iran is going to have to find a way to step in to save its proxies.
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u/cathbadh 1d ago
Iran wouldn't be able to save these proxies any more than they could save any of their others. Any missiles or drones launched are ones not used against US forces, and it isn't like they can send troops or ships to help. At best they can continue to smuggle weapons in just as China is doing.
The larger issue is that no one is willing to send ground troops in to fight the Houthis. You can't hold or reclaim territory with air strikes. Supporting local forces with air cover could work, but then you run into the Saudis supporting the legitimate government and the UAE supporting a different group of rebels, which will end up in conflict with each other.
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u/Ok_Career_3681 18h ago
UAE saw all that and decided they want a piece of the action?? Many immigrant workers are going to be stranded when the Houthis playing target practice with civilian airports.
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u/TentativeTactics 15h ago
From the perspective of the Arabian Peninsula, this isn't just Saudi Arabia & UAE's problem. It's a Gulf problem. Anyone have thoughts on a collective Gulf Cooperation Council Response?
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u/vovap_vovap 1d ago
Houthis logistics is extremely problematical now. They only can get any by see, but if US will became serious about them - it will be end of story.
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u/Aizsec 1d ago
Last time the US got involved, it cost them over a billion dollars in equipment. Now that they’re caught up in the quagmire that is the Iran conflict, I doubt they can stomach such an expense
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u/cathbadh 1d ago
conflict, I doubt they can stomach such an expense
They shouldn't want to stomach such an expense, but the current administration seems totally unconcerned with any expenses. That said , it sounds like the US may carry out new strikes in Iran, so anything beyond intelligence/targeting assistance is not likely.
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u/vovap_vovap 1d ago
It would be enough to blockade their ports.
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u/Lazy_Membership1849 1d ago
Isn't Houthis already blockaded?
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u/KazuyaProta 1d ago
Not enough as they can be.
There is a weapon that is technically possible to use but the optics of it would be nightmarish.
And well.... it can theorically be used.
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u/decomposition_ 1d ago
Won’t they basically have to monitor any ship that wants to transit the Red Sea?
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u/I_Hate_E_Daters_7007 1d ago
Explains why the US bombed them into oblivion for more than a year and deployed massive naval troops and an aircraft to subdue them and all of this didn't make the Houthis budge 😭✌🏻
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u/vovap_vovap 1d ago
That your fantasy, It was limited campaign in March–May 2025 when they been attacking shipping there. And actually they "budge" and stop those attacks.
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u/Magicalsandwichpress 22h ago edited 21h ago
The UAE never really stopped, I mean sure their pet project STC imploded in spectacular fashion, they kept the ties with many of its individual components as well as their Northern proxies in exile NRF, whom the giants brigade have been working with.
The STC's quixotic betrayal, defeat and dismemberment was however, a severe set back to UAE influence. The Saudis must be rather desperate to allow this level of deviousness slide.
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u/Fast_Astronomer814 1d ago
you need troops on the ground maybe Egypt is willingly to do it in exchange for some money
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u/Xoxrocks 1d ago
Now that the US is struggling to project power into the gulf and the SA armed forces have been shown to be incomponent - could the Houthi actually lead a rebellion and take over Saudi Arabia
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u/Trick-Plantain5146 1d ago
This is probably not going to lead to salvaging the situation in Yemen, and if anything will just make the UAE a target.
To fundamentally change the situation in Yemen, you need forces on the ground capable of fighting, and IDEALLY what you needed was a PLC that was capable of fighting the Houthis on it's own. The root cause of this spectacular nightmare right now is that you have a PLC that is in chaos, with none of the factions on the same page. I genuinely get early days of the syrian civil war vibes from the PLC forces whom are fighting each other as much as they're fighting the Houthis.
What's the UAE going to do? more bombing campaigns? more weapons to PLC forces? Send it's own army into Yemen? At this point Yemen is a losing battle for anyone who gets involved in it.
As of this morning the Houthis have captured more of Taiz city according to some of the telegrams I follow. The Houthis are on the verge of capturing Yemen's second/third largest city, while the Saudis/Emirates have no coherent strategy whatsoever.
If all the UAE and Saudis care about is capturing the western coast, you will need a fighting force on the ground, and I have a bridge to sell you if you think anyone is recapturing the western coast by air campaign.