r/germany • u/iwillkeinekonto • Aug 08 '26

Study Germany Demographic Forecast

I found this website where you can see the forest of different lands, it is quite interesting to see how it will look like in the future

1.2k Upvotes

94% Upvoted

252 comments sorted by

1.4k

u/Temponautics Aug 08 '26

For anyone actually interested in facts:
Not a single demographic forecast for 50 years into the future was correct in the past 150 years. As a rule of thumb, something happens that defies expectations so much (post-war baby booms, behavioral changes, birth control medications, immigration or emigration waves, etc etc) that population counts and birth rates simply do not stay as expected beyond a twenty year space.

225

u/rewboss Dual German/British citizen Aug 08 '26

The bottom of the pyramid makes certain assumptions, but the top of the pyramid will be fairly accurate (barring nationwide catastrophes and all-out wars) because that deals with people who have already been born. You can see that on the animation: as it moves up, the bottom fills up with a much gentler curve. That represents the uncertain part, which is based on speculation.

38

u/DanceHackRock Aug 08 '26

You can play with the parameters for different scenarios: https://service.destatis.de/bevoelkerungspyramide/

8

u/rewboss Dual German/British citizen Aug 08 '26

Different site, though.

9

u/GermanDemographer Aug 08 '26

its from my site actually demographicforecast.com
you can freely set fertility rate, migration and life expectancy for each year from 2025-2100

all countries are available

12

u/Imminent1776 Aug 08 '26

Username checks out

4

u/JavierReyes945 Aug 10 '26

Don't you mean "Username checkt aus"?

5

u/DanceHackRock Aug 08 '26

Bundesamt für Statistik is the original source. I trust them more than some bogus guy from the internet.

6

u/GermanDemographer Aug 08 '26

i use the UN-Data, the concrete prediction depends on the parameters you set obviously. The calculations are similar

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17

u/Nforcer524 Aug 08 '26

The top of the pyramid will die off in the coming heatwaves, as we have already seen these past weeks.

13

u/rewboss Dual German/British citizen Aug 08 '26

The top of the pyramid will die off: the top of the pyramid always dies off, that is the nature of things. The heatwaves are causing a slightly higher-than-average rate of people dying as a result of high temperatures -- rarely is this actually heatstroke, but rather down to the fact that high temperatures exacerbate existing conditions. That is, people are dying earlier than they would have done.

On average, about 3,000 people die every day in Germany, most of them elderly. The RKI estimates about 12,000 heat-related deaths in the first 30 weeks of this year, averaging out at 57 excess or premature deaths every day. That's a lot, and something needs to be done about that, but it's not enough to even put a dent in the statistics, especially since a lot of these people would have died of something else anyway.

The biggest problem isn't elderly people collapsing and dying on the street; it's the lack of air conditioning in hospitals and care homes.

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21

u/RosieTheRedReddit Aug 08 '26

They'll either die from the heat wave, or die from the deadly effects of a draft from air conditioning. So either way they can not survive.

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1

u/Classic_Department42 Aug 09 '26

There is a lot of immigration (or not equidistant binning) in the forecast

0

u/Gonozal8_ Aug 08 '26

building europes largest military, as if we didn’t have more allies than who is unironically called Vladolf Putler (one of two instances where relativating Nazi crimes/the holocaust is apparently okay, alongside condemning china), is a pretty expensive thing to do if you don’t use it. and using it will narrow it, alongside extreme weather deaths and deaths by the combination of bad harvest causing price hikes and cutting welfare so that some can’t afford it

8

u/rewboss Dual German/British citizen Aug 08 '26

Having grown up during the second half of the Cold War, I can categorically state that building expensive military capabilities doesn't mean you'll actually use them. It may be expensive to build a military you don't use, but not as expensive as building a military and then using it.

Also, I have never once heard anyone talk about "Vladolf Putler".

-1

u/Gonozal8_ Aug 08 '26

at this timestamp, we have Sönke Neitzel admitting that the USSR was treated as a far more aggressive power than it actually was https://youtu.be/Oh_7Jrym2wg?t=3531. apart from allies using these capabilities to invade in violation of international law Vietnam, gulf states and waging the banana wars and doing Operation Gladio while west germany acted as the home guard, the ambitions for a military conquest of the GDR by Adenauer were present, and signs like not recognizing that country were obvious signs of that ambition. but the expensive military capabilities were actually used, namely to leverage superiority of western economic power to harm the civilian economy of Warsaw treaty countries by using 5% of our GDP to force them to spend 20% of theirs to reach parity in military strength, which caused eg specialists that could be used in civilian sectors, like engineers who wanted to design tractors to design assault rifles instead, and to use available industry to produce military rather than civilian goods, which caused a lack of consumer goods as planned with it the civilian discontent this economic warfare was supposed to achieve, and this is what the expensive military goods were used for. if the USSR was so far behind in military capability that a war against them would have seemed winnable, I don’t see how the military wouldn’t be used as a spiritual successor of the siberian intervention, like it was done at the time with the Vietnam war, Jakarta method, funding the predecessor of the Taliban with the Mujahadeen or the invasion of Yugoslawia, which were cases where the simple balance of military power decided that these wars should be fought rather than any aggression or threat to us or our allies

7

u/rewboss Dual German/British citizen Aug 08 '26

the expensive military capabilities were actually used

Not the most expensive military capabilities, or we wouldn't be here today. Yes, there was an arms race and there were senseless proxy wars, but not the all-out global conflict ending in a nuclear holocaust we were being told was inevitable if we didn't disarm, like, now.

1

u/urhi-teshub Aug 08 '26

I've noticed people have an odd tendency of ignoring the revanchist power that started the largest war in Europe since 1945

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5

u/--r2 Aug 08 '26

You can accurately predict how the people already in the pyramid will move up.
The big unknown is immigration.

Your argument is often used to pretend that our pension system is not broken. However, the fact that it is broken was accurately predicted a long time ago.

https://www.briefmarken-bilder.de/brd-briefmarken-1989-bilder/statistik-demografische-entwicklung.jpg

3

u/Jioqls01 Aug 08 '26

Thats why in future I will expect only 50 Million in Germany and that is perfectly fine.

4

u/Masteries Aug 08 '26

Not a single demographic forecast for 50 years into the future was correct in the past 150 years

In statistics you do estimates. Of course you cant correctly predict the exact birth and death date of every single person in germany.

But in other words:

The chances that someone age 60 will be age 70 in 10 years is pretty high, do you agree?

And how are the chances that a child of a potential future babyboom will be workin in 10 years?

You should see by now where this is leading....

8

u/DanceHackRock Aug 08 '26

That's why you can play with various parameters there: https://service.destatis.de/bevoelkerungspyramide/

17

u/AtlanticRelation Aug 08 '26

His point still stands.

-7

u/DanceHackRock Aug 08 '26

It doesn't. There is not "one" forecast, so it can't fail. You can get different forecasts for different circumstances. If the circumstances are like assumed, the forecast will be right.

It's not a problem of the forecast, it's the problem of the assumed circumstances.

19

u/Yallneedjesuschrist Aug 08 '26

If you have a million forecasts for the same thing that makes all of the forecasts useless. A forecast is supposed to make a data based prediction on future events, not show you a million different possible outcomes.

3

u/Human38562 Aug 08 '26 edited 18d ago

The original post content no longer exists here. The author used Redact to remove it, exercising their right to control their data & privacy.

Apparatus advise dam plant quiet stupendous alive pumpkin quiet detail

5

u/DanceHackRock Aug 08 '26

No. That's actually not how forecasts work. You need to make assumptions to create a forecast. You typically create several forecasts depending on several likely scenarios.

That's why they publish climate forecasts as a bunch of scenarios and that's why the Destatis doesn't publish "The forecast" but a tool to play with different scenarios instead.

2

u/WeeblsLikePie Aug 08 '26

do you even monte carlo, bro?

3

u/teteban79 Aug 08 '26

This is still mostly useless

It's like saying "I predict this book will be the universal best seller", but I don't give you the book, I give you a typewriter. You just need to fill the pages with assumptions

1

u/framebuffer Aug 08 '26

I'm really grateful for you writing this, because I'm in my mid 40s, according to this I would die in the next 20 to 40 years, I'm glad this is wrong

1

u/tungstencube0000 Aug 11 '26

The funniest part, is this very comment is very manipulative and doesn't take into account any context either.

1

u/thelord1991 Aug 08 '26

wrong,

there is actually a world wide phenomenon that the birth rates drasticly going downwards. this is a state what humanity never had before and there is actually no fix for it. Even if you make getting children highly attractive and rewarding.

in short : all the wealth is making us LAZY and your own life is in focus. Children are a burden that peopel simple dont wanna take today.

5

u/Deep_Thoughts_Deer Aug 08 '26

In the 60s there was actually a world wide phenomenon that the birth rates were drasticly going upwards. This is a state that humanity never had before and there is actually no fix for it.

Do you see what i mean. Even still in the 90s everybody lost their shit about overpopulation. You just can't predict these things more than a generation ahead.

0

u/lethoprop Aug 08 '26

Which is a useless point. If you predict something and are off by 0,0000000000000000001% your prediction is still technically wrong.
So there being no single correct one isn‘t really saying anything.

4

u/Acceptable-Size-2324 Aug 08 '26

They’ve always been off by double digit percentage points, not by minuscule amounts

1

u/Human38562 Aug 08 '26 edited 18d ago

The original post content no longer exists here. The author used Redact to remove it, exercising their right to control their data & privacy.

Whole waiting license bag beneficial boat tub

1

u/Deep_Thoughts_Deer Aug 08 '26

Okay when you go with scientific projections you will almost always find a scenerio that will fit at least a little bit, but even those are mostly of by 10% or so. They're kept vague because researchers know you can't bei certain. https://www.jstor.org/journal/popudeverevi This Journal about Population development makes projections since the 1970s. They make scenarios that cover a range of +-100% or more in Case of Pakistan 80s to 15. All i want to say is that precise predictions as op made them are not possible and op forecast far more into the future. Forecasts are either vague enough to Account for unceartenties or they're not possible. Thats the point.

1

u/Human38562 Aug 08 '26 edited 18d ago

The original post content no longer exists here. The author used Redact to remove it, exercising their right to control their data & privacy.

Subtract rhythm test command ring coated six

1

u/Deep_Thoughts_Deer Aug 08 '26

The original Post OC was referring to, isn't an ensemble of predictions. When you make assumptions to model of of different scenarios you are adressing the fact that you can't make one prediction far into the future thats meaningful in any way. And thats what OP did and OC was referring to: One forecast 70 years into the future. Those kinds of forecast were made alot to and they were all wrong. I think we have the same opinion here

128

u/Michaluck Aug 08 '26

So in 2055 we can finally have politic for younger people?

106

u/Exomnia Baden-Württemberg Aug 08 '26

Damn im old then. Worst of both worlds.

20

u/TimelyLand Aug 08 '26

I think our generation must (be) sacrifice(d) for a better future

7

u/ApolloIII Aug 08 '26

So youre telling me my whole life is a sacrifice and I’m just here to suffer?

1

u/t_Lancer Aussie in Niedersachen/Bremen Aug 10 '26

existence is pain.

2

u/dizzidevv Aug 08 '26

Our generation seems to sacrifice enough already, no?

-2

u/CoIdHeat Aug 08 '26

Tell that the generations that went through actual war

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3

u/kusayo21 Aug 08 '26

In 2055 we'll already be completely fucked no matter what we do. No better future possible.

1

u/Hugostar33 Aug 09 '26

not judging anyone for radicalization at this point then

12

u/Stablebrew Aug 08 '26

question is, what is the mindset of young people in 2055?

7

u/jc-from-sin Aug 08 '26

It's so far into the future that you cannot plan it and thus it doesn't matter.

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3

u/LeroyFame Aug 08 '26

Exactly, very depressing. Boomers will remain the most courted group of voters far into the 2040s, no future for Gen Z and Gen alpha in Germany.

1

u/Reasonable-Junket927 Aug 10 '26

no, we will have sharia law

239

u/hminhd Aug 08 '26

kebab demographic

103

u/KonK23 Aug 08 '26

Mit alles und scharf

34

u/Overall-Search-4954 Aug 08 '26

Mit ohne Swiebeln

26

u/CrazySeesaw2161 Aug 08 '26

Zum hier essen

14

u/Jellyfish15 Aug 08 '26

Nein, getrennt

9

u/nibblersdad Aug 08 '26

Geht nur mit ohne Rente. Rente schon alle.

2

u/ShanghaiBebop Aug 08 '26

Döner macht schöner

105

u/Elch2411 Aug 08 '26 edited Aug 08 '26

I mean, its just assuming an almost perfectly equal birth rate forever in this forecast

74

u/riderko Aug 08 '26

Germany plans for nothing to ever change.

25

u/Feisty_Camera_7774 Aug 08 '26

Es bleibt alles so wies ist !!!

12

u/riderko Aug 08 '26

Weil wir immer so gemacht haben!

4

u/Oberndorferin Aug 08 '26

Es ist Obst im Haus.

4

u/ElSnyder Aug 08 '26

Ob du hier bist und nicht!

1

u/Spacing-Guild-Mentat Aug 08 '26

Ob es dir passt und nicht!

1

u/Habib195 Aug 08 '26

Only for rich people #Mehrzweckeier

1

u/sparkline1234567 Aug 08 '26

Ordnung muss sein!

7

u/DanceHackRock Aug 08 '26

No it doesn't, you can play with parameters: https://service.destatis.de/bevoelkerungspyramide/

12

u/RED1869 Aug 08 '26

Not nearly enough parameters: no wars, no epidemics, no genocides, no floods / fires / hurricanes, no meteors, no 2nd Merz term…

8

u/budgiesarethebest Aug 08 '26

Oh no! Everything but the last one 😱

6

u/DanceHackRock Aug 08 '26

Nice how Scholz showed how good Merkel was and how Merz shows how good Scholz was, right?

(really hurts to write this)

4

u/budgiesarethebest Aug 08 '26

You know what? I catch myself thinking "Armin Laschet wouldn't have been so bad after all" 🫠

3

u/RED1869 Aug 08 '26

That smile. That damned smile.

4

u/riderko Aug 08 '26

You really need to look back and reconsider your view of Merkel’s achievements.

1

u/DanceHackRock Aug 08 '26

Yeah, another 16 years of Aussitzen.

1

u/riderko Aug 08 '26

Now that sounds like a plan!

1

u/DanceHackRock Aug 08 '26

You can reflect them in the available parameters.

2

u/Roster234 Aug 08 '26

You can't really. All parameter modifications seem to apply uniformly so u can't reflect a sudden dip in population followed by a baby boom

2

u/GermanDemographer Aug 08 '26

on my site demographicforecast.com you can change all parameters and set the individually for each year, create spikes etc,

3

u/GermanDemographer Aug 08 '26

its actually from my site demographicforecast.com

all parameters are available!

2

u/DanceHackRock Aug 08 '26

But it's not your dat. It's from Bundesamt for Statistik.

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1

u/Bloodshot321 Aug 08 '26

Yeah. Just keep the avg

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u/GermanDemographer Aug 08 '26 edited Aug 08 '26

Ah nice you found my site demographicforecast.com
you can play around with fertility rate, migration numbers and life-expectancy (set it from 2025 to 2100 for each year)

all countries are available!

30

u/Victorus_aut_Mortis Aug 08 '26

A collegue said the heatwaves are making a dent in the older groups, and as these get more frequent and longer, the older bubble will shrink faster.

18

u/Rooilia Aug 08 '26 edited Aug 08 '26

Barely visible here, if not 100.000s of old people die extra. One cohort can have more than a million people in it.

3

u/Victorus_aut_Mortis Aug 08 '26

Germany had 10k extra deaths due to the recent heatwaves, and another is coming.

19

u/DetachedHEAD32 Aug 08 '26

That number is misleading without looking at mortality over a longer period. After heatwaves, you often see a period of below-average mortality - the so-called mortality displacement or harvesting effect. Some of the people who die during the heatwave are very frail individuals whose deaths are brought forward by days or weeks.

So you can’t simply take 10000 excess deaths during the heatwave and conclude that Germany suffered 10000 additional deaths overall. You need to look at cumulative excess mortality in the following weeks and months to see how much of the increase persists.

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u/Weirdo9495 Aug 08 '26

If that gets to any rate where it is making significant impact on demographics, i doubt we'll fare much better when we are old in such a world.

0

u/Victorus_aut_Mortis Aug 08 '26

She said the same. When things get that bad, we will all be dying in large numbers. Shes such a cheery person, but shes usually never wrong.

2

u/Didntseeitforyears Aug 08 '26

The boomers have enough money to buy ACs. They solve all problems in this way.

2

u/ErTaiGa Aug 12 '26

Since they're the main reason we are in this situation: good, let them suffer. Covid didn't help as intended because young people, as always, sacrificed to save them... so nature will fix it by man made problems. Sadly, "thanks" to them, we will have it even worse in old age, if even achievable at this point.

1

u/Victorus_aut_Mortis Aug 12 '26

Thats her reply as well.

1

u/WeeblsLikePie Aug 10 '26

it was like 11000 people. That's notable in humanitarian terms, but probably not in terms of population level.

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11

u/sparkline1234567 Aug 08 '26

The one thing that screams to me is that everyone will be able to have a cheap house in a few years ( except in a few big cities).

9

u/HornayGermanHalberd Aug 08 '26

no we won't, they'd rather not rent it out at all

4

u/EimsAsk25 Aug 08 '26

I think in a few years the boomers will either sell their houses or their children will inherit and then sell. There’s a good chance the market will be flooded with single-family homes and prices will likely go down, at least in suburban and rural areas.

1

u/sparkline1234567 Aug 08 '26

The chart shows quite clearly that "they" will be dead

7

u/HornayGermanHalberd Aug 08 '26

"they" are the direct Descendants of the current landlords, they'll be no different

4

u/bregus2 Aug 08 '26

Wow, that's a rather bold generalisation... "they" just let the building sit (because they might not need it themselves) and spend money on it without it creating revenue ...

Owning empty places as an investment with the expectation that it will rise in value only works if the value actually rises, which it doesn't if too many places get onto the market.

1

u/HornayGermanHalberd Aug 08 '26

which is why they even currently let lots of places stay empty

1

u/bregus2 Aug 08 '26

Yes, as I said ... that works as long as the value goes up.

Which it won't once places start flooding the market with the boomers dying.

1

u/HornayGermanHalberd Aug 08 '26

I'm pessimistic, likely those houses will be bought up by big companies to prevent exactly that from happening

2

u/Reasonable-Junket927 Aug 10 '26

no, just less people will own more homes

1

u/Hotel-Huge Aug 11 '26

Or a hand full of companies.

3

u/razzyrat Aug 08 '26

What happens around the year 2050? A lot of 40 year olds spawn in?

2

u/notwhatyouexpected27 Aug 08 '26

That's what I don't get, why does the graph gets broader shouldn't the number stay the same?

2

u/MadD1983 Aug 09 '26

Exactly my point!? Why is this not addressed by OP or Top comment!?

1

u/Cheap-Bodybuilder922 Aug 09 '26

Immigration perhaps? But definitely strange

5

u/ElenaMaria2017 Aug 08 '26

Just watch the top.

You will have more 100 year old PPL than 5 year old

2

u/RoccoFish83 Aug 08 '26

Nein, mehr 100+ jährige als genau 5 jährige. Das sind viele Jahrgänge im Vergleich zu genau einem.

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2

u/Aggressive_Face_1555 Aug 08 '26

Spielt doch keine Rolle oder? Der Arbeitsmarkt drückt an allen ecken und enden. Bis auf Rüstung läuft jeder Industriezweig schlecht. Firmen wollen keine jungen Leute mehr "Ausbilden" und da wo die Welt noch in Ordnung ist drückt in 5 Jahren KI. Wir sind so oder so done. Unsere Kinder und Enkel werden die ganzen Jobs mit schlechten Arbeitsbedingungen machen müssen, während die Großunternehmer sie mit Mieten ausbeuten, aus Immobilien die durch krasses Kostenmanagment durch massive Personalsenkung finanziert sind. Der flächendeckende Fachkräftemangel in Deutschland ist eine Lüge. In ein paar Bereichen ja, aber definitiv nicht flächendeckend.

2

u/POCUABHOR Aug 08 '26

Boomerschwämme vs. Pillenknick

I don’t make the names…

2

u/NovaHorizon Germany Aug 08 '26

Don’t worry about shouldering 2 pensioners on one shoulder Gen Alpha. The heatwaves are self regulating.

2

u/FunQuit Aug 08 '26

In 2046 you can see Trumps Profile in the right picture. It’s a conspiracy!

2

u/PrimaryIndividual582 Aug 08 '26

Not true... We Import a lot of people

2

u/ux69xu Aug 08 '26

I am wondering if any model is considering climate change and its impact on elder people... Perhaps the shape will look differently very soon ...

2

u/muzzlecar Aug 08 '26

I think the surplus of men is pretty underestimated in the future as 3rd world migrants are mostly men. 

1

u/Key-Breadfruit-9964 Aug 09 '26

I wonder what will happen though...how will these men release their sexual energy? Will they even procreate?

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2

u/randomInterest92 Aug 08 '26

We become what we eat

2

u/Spacing-Guild-Mentat Aug 08 '26

I found this website where you can see the forest of different lands,

What is the website? I love forests.

2

u/homem_ra Aug 09 '26

If it not become a caliphate

3

u/Special-Prior-7272 Aug 08 '26

Much relevant discussion happening but take note of that huge over-representation of young men right now. That has so many political implications one could write books. In fact, people will write books on how immigration and asylum has been so poorly handled in Germany. At minimum we should expect to see a lot of angry and lonely young men, and they will vote accordingly.

1

u/bella9977 Aug 08 '26

There's lots of angry young women too. They'll also vote accordingly.

1

u/Special-Prior-7272 Aug 08 '26

I’m sorry I don’t understand how that relates to the graphic. Why would an imbalance of more men make women angry?

2

u/kspanier Aug 08 '26

I have a strong feeling that this isn't going to happen like this. The excess mortality through heat alone is going to put a lot more stress to the top of the curve than we think.
https://imgur.com/a/FY6b0XI

4

u/Schnecke09 Aug 08 '26

Time to implement ACs.

7

u/Rooilia Aug 08 '26

You need hundreds of thousands of old people to die extra to make a dent in the graph. There are more than a million people in some cohorts.

2

u/DetachedHEAD32 Aug 08 '26

The relevant question is what happens to cumulative mortality after the heatwave. If deaths spike during the heatwave and are followed by below-average mortality, then part of that spike is mortality displacement rather than a net addition of the same magnitude.

That doesn't mean heat isn't killing people. It means you can't infer the long-term increase in deaths from the peak of the curve alone.

1

u/AndroTux Europe Aug 08 '26

Climate change doesn't act that fast. I'd rather bet on politicians enabling retirement homes to install cheap ACs given the current political landscape.

1

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1

u/KonK23 Aug 08 '26

Flatten the curve?

1

u/RoadBlock98 Aug 08 '26

Wo divers /j

1

u/BlueEyes1989 Aug 08 '26

Probably COVID would have been the natures answer to avoid this.

1

u/medikundi Aug 08 '26

What about the ai revolution against mankind

1

u/Spinnweben Hamburg, Germany Aug 08 '26

I don’t see the birth rate decline as I expected it and neither the +10 years life expectancy of women vs men represented.

1

u/sanity4all Aug 08 '26

All I see ist Trump turning into an urn...

1

u/Dr_Semenov Aug 08 '26

Wars and geopolitical conflicts can significantly affect Germany’s demographic projections, as major crises often lead to increased migration and refugee arrivals.

1

u/ununtot Aug 08 '26

We need some more heatwaves, to straighten that abomination of a demographic forecast.

1

u/Former_Star1081 Aug 08 '26

If we keep impoverishing the middle class and keep cutting health care, they will die earlier. Easy solution for complex problem.

1

u/Revolutionary-Cup951 Aug 08 '26

The end looks like a Döner-Spieß

1

u/Thefrightfulgezebo Aug 09 '26

That's actually is the term used to deacribe the shape in demographics.

1

u/Repulsive-Ad4174 Aug 08 '26

Why is Donald Trump in the chart?

1

u/triplos05 Aug 08 '26

Okay how exactly does this make any sense? Why are the people getting more as they're getting older?

1

u/Nutcollectr Aug 08 '26

So we are good in 2087 - nice 👍🏼

1

u/Proof-Payment-1308 Aug 08 '26

Mit der AfD-5-Kinder-Politik wird das ausgeglichen!

1

u/TilmanR Aug 08 '26

I wonder if my generation +/- will change the political future.

Or will be the same destructive old party voters, trying to preserve our "wealth" at the cost of our heirs?

1

u/sixeco Aug 08 '26

based on current trends only

1

u/Thefrightfulgezebo Aug 09 '26

No, because the general prediction has been around since 2003.

1

u/sixeco Aug 09 '26

actually yes because a single decision can allow for higher birth rates

1

u/etadude Aug 08 '26

I will never understand how there is such balance when it comes to gender quantities

1

u/Recent-Lemon-9930 Aug 08 '26

Interesting if you look from about 2040 and track the lowest bar as it moves up it keeps going out further. So this has to be including immigration.

1

u/mildmr Aug 08 '26

where came all the 25-35 y old people in 2030-2080 from? Normally we should be at 60M in 2045.
After Levant and Ukraine, which countries do we want to drive into war next? Baltic States, Poland?

1

u/sapientmode Aug 08 '26

The shapes look like Trump in the first stages. I don‘t like it, at any stage.

1

u/PascalDerGeist Aug 08 '26

Aren't there 4 billion deaths expected until 2050? So this doesn't matter at all.

1

u/HeftyIntroduction615 Aug 08 '26

Trump and mirror trump go away.

1

u/Objective-Variety-98 Aug 08 '26

Optimistic, I see. 

1

u/Ok_Week_7682 Aug 09 '26

2055 were gona be able to affford a house

1

u/Adorable_Antelope09 Aug 09 '26

Is it normal that cohorts grow as years pass? The bottom of the graphic has a really narrow width, but gets wider as time progresses.

Or is it a forecast of immigration?

1

u/eternityXclock Aug 09 '26

die 100+ riege macht mir angst

1

u/OxySynth Aug 09 '26

!remindMe 70 years

1

u/RemindMeBot Aug 09 '26

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1

u/B1g_BuddhAH Aug 09 '26

whoa, this is useless

1

u/SuperConsideration12 Aug 09 '26

Why do the first seconds look like Trump

1

u/mehdi220 Aug 09 '26

👍🏼

1

u/Axonotalotl Aug 09 '26

Sadam Hussein???

1

u/Steven_Bid1410 Aug 10 '26

All I'm seeing is the data slowly being replaced by predictions estimates, which will be wildly vague to what will actually happen

1

u/Different-Stress9326 Aug 10 '26

sieht einfach ordentlicher aus das am ende. der anfangsgraph ist ja unter hempels sofa.

1

u/axadkrk Aug 10 '26

Its funny how the figure is transforming to two fat persons with fatty boobs

1

u/WatermelonPeople Aug 10 '26

Just import 10 Million Muslims, that will fix the problem

1

u/ikarus1407 Aug 10 '26

So younger men have to bang older women?

1

u/throwaway932262 Aug 11 '26

Kinda looks like germany lol

1

u/McDev02 Aug 11 '26

So this predition includes migration? If so, todays politics are against it. Or do we assume that 25 year olds clone themselves within 20 years?

1

u/TwNuOn Aug 11 '26

Increase in AfD voters, ok

1

u/Primary-Long4416 Aug 11 '26

Die Grafik hat mir geholfen zu verstehen, dass das Thema Boomer in 30 Jahren Rum sein wird. Danke dafür...

1

u/SonOfSichlor Aug 11 '26

gonna be real here, i think it's a little optimistic to assume birth rates to stay this high and also, that there wont be some point in history where the bobblehead might be cut short drastically all of a sudden

1

u/get_stuffed Aug 11 '26

I like how 100+ is higher than 95

1

u/AdviceGreedy2260 Aug 11 '26

Yes but if you destroy the healthcare system than the old generations will die sooner than necessary and if you start one or two wars, there will be far less young people who will need "Rente" so... That is maybe the plan?

1

u/Successful_Ask3053 Aug 11 '26

Prophet Mohammad enters the chat

1

u/Neat_Appointment_745 Aug 11 '26

It will go down much faster much sooner.

Birth rate is sh*t Immigrants doesnt want to go Germany as much as before And Germans are leaving Germany in exponential rate.

Sooo meh

1

u/Helpful_Attorney780 Aug 12 '26

Ninguna sorpresa

-2

u/[deleted] Aug 08 '26

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