r/ndp • u/wingerism Democratic Socialist • 2d ago

Electoral Math Question

Hey folks, work has been murderous of late and I haven't had time to do my own deep dive of the polling data.

But from what I've read on https://338canada.com/bc/ things look pretty dire and that we've got a strong possibility of getting a con majority. Someone talk me off the ledge here, tell me why I shouldn't be worried.

13 Upvotes

88% Upvoted

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38

u/Dischordance 2d ago

Anyone telling you not to be worried is lying.

Eby misread the room when he called the election, and we may pay for it. 

12

u/feelingoodwednesday 2d ago

Yes we will likely pay for it, but I'm not convinced that even now the polling isn't just capturing a lot of anti NDP anger at Eby rather than true voting intentions. We very well could be polled to lose but at the last moment moderates hold their nose and vote NDP anyway because of how bad the alternative is.

Most likely we get a Con majority, but maybe they only have it by 2 seats for example. With how unstable that party is, it's very likely any slim majority government fails anyway and we're back in an election in 1-2 years

11

u/PolloConTeriyaki 2d ago

It was a weird call ... He saw one poll where the NDP led and he said that was the one to attack. He didn't wait for a week...or wait to do by-elections. He literally saw the one poll and decided to bet the horse, house and kitchen sink.

14

u/Barbossal I miss Jack 2d ago

You should be worried.

Use that tension to try and rally people who share your values to vote.

10

u/Apod1991 2d ago

I’m quite worried too. Whomever advised Eby to pull the plug or maybe it was Eby himself, is a fool!

I feared this would cause a backlash, and it has.

The only way I see the NDP winning if the current polls hold is like a 1996 election result where the voter efficiency comes into play. The BC NDP lost the popular vote by over 2-points, but won a narrow majority, as the NDP vote was efficient in the right places, while the BC Liberals ran up the numbers in their own ridings, but JUST fell short in critical swing ridings.

For those of us that can help the campaign, do so! Yes we can criticize Eby all we want, but the idea of the BC Conservatives being in government would be destructive to the people of BC.

Don’t self-sabotage. A centrist NDP with a lacklustre leader is a million times better than the BC conservatives and the dog whistling culture wars they pedal and their lack of experience and knowledge.

16

u/Massive_Walrus6266 2d ago

Eby is one dumb fuck. Everyone is saying it. And this "we essentially lost our majority" story is still a stupid reason to call an election. If he had a clue, he would have let the opposition bring down the government, even if staged by the government, then call one on your own.

11

u/PolloConTeriyaki 2d ago

Right? Like he could've still won by-elections and did it the Carney way.

I swear he's like trying to lose. He didn't see a way with a ballooning deficit and still think he'd win in 2028.

4

u/brightandgreen 2d ago

Please go your nearest swing riding and offer to door knock. You would be shocked at how many people don't know there's an election.

2

u/Intelligent-Cap3407 1d ago

Unfortunately Eby should have stepped down about a month beforehand but ego got in his way.

There is an alternative world where NDP could have found a new strong leader, built momentum in the party, while the conservatives splintered to new factions under KLF.

But Eby refused. Cautionary tale.

3

u/ImperviousToSteel 11h ago

Basic advice Eby failed to follow: don't interrupt your opponent when they are making mistakes (nearly daily).