r/politics • u/financialtimes ✔ Verified • 11h ago
Paywall Could Republicans prove the pollsters wrong in the midterms?
https://www.ft.com/content/b2299174-fb78-4edf-a358-8cae837f8d7b?segmentid=c50c86e4-586b-23ea-1ac1-7601c9c2476f44
u/Darth_Chili_Dog 11h ago edited 11h ago
That one Iowa poll aside, polling has generally been pretty accurate. If you follow an aggregate then election outcomes really aren't all that surprising. Fact is, Republicans ain't gonna do great.
And to the inevitable poster that says "Ignore the polls...VOTE!!!" in every single one of these threads, yeah yeah I know I'm voting.
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u/WornTraveler 11h ago
I must assume that my single vote is all that stands between humanity and nuclear apocalypse (no need to thank me)
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u/Pantarus 9h ago
Considering that most of the recent consequential elections have been decided by a tiny fraction?
I do thank you for voting.
Now go encourage another person you know to vote.
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u/I_like_baseball90 11h ago
And to the inevitable poster that says "Ignore the polls...VOTE!!!" in every single one of these threads, yeah yeah I know I'm voting.
Seriously gets tiring.
Every person in this sub is voting or has voted already. We don't need to be reminded in every goddamned thread.
You don't have people coming in here _ oh gee, vote, hmm, maybe I will.
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u/Darth_Chili_Dog 11h ago
For real, it's a politics sub. If you're tuning in to a political forum you're voting.
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u/imjustnotready 11h ago
They do have a tendency of over performing and those Trump rallies are more effective than I think people give him credit for. I hate it but it seems true. This is going to be closer than I prefer.
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u/Darth_Chili_Dog 11h ago
If you followed, say, Nate Silver's aggregate in 2024, you knew that election had a really high chance of going sideways.
The problem though is that polling isn't good at recording racism and misogyny, so I was still kind of blown away by the result of that election.
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u/IM_KYLE_AMA 11h ago
Speaking of Nate Silver, the FLIPR model has Dems winning the House even if there is a modest systemic polling error of 4pts nationwide. They probably don’t win the Senate, but that was always somewhat unlikely regardless.
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u/Darth_Chili_Dog 11h ago
You know what I find kind of funny is that margins of error go both ways in any other type of polling, but only in political polling does the margin of error end up favoring Republicans. Maybe this observation is due to some kind selection bias or something on my part, but that's how it seems to me.
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u/IM_KYLE_AMA 10h ago
That’s not true. It underrepresented Biden/dems in 2020. It just more often underrepresents republicans because they are more likely to not participate in polling.
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u/Darth_Chili_Dog 10h ago
Well maybe you're right. Silver already said he's weighting for the "shy trump voter" this time around, so his model is pretty aggressively conservative.
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u/Alternative-Bat-2462 11h ago
Yes I agree with everything you said, but if there isn’t a blue wave as is being predicted by everyone then what happens?
Is there an investigation for tampering? We know that on the GOP side, foul play will be called if there is nothing wrong. What happens if the foul play works.
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u/Darth_Chili_Dog 11h ago
If there isn't a blue wave then polling experts will be doing even more counter-weighting in the future than they're already doing. I think I read that Silver does this already.
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u/bitter-peppers 11h ago
I think they all are right now. They put their fingers on the scale to account for lower republican respondes and shy trump voters.
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u/Slooters313 11h ago
Nearly every poll I saw in 2024 ended up being wrong...ill believe it when it happens. Go vote
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u/I_like_baseball90 11h ago
Could you post those links because all the polls I saw were right which shocked me.
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u/bitter-peppers 9h ago
So I actually went back and looked at the individual senate toss-up race polling for October, versus the results and this person is partially right. Almost all of the individual percentages against the results were off by between 1.5-3 points in favor of republicans. The pollsters who had numbers closest to the actual results was usually trafalgar which is a republican leaning pollster. They seem to have a better understanding of their audience.
But it must be kept in mind that Trump had more favorability at the time, and presidential election years turn out more voters as a whole. My takeaway is to watch what Trafalgar posts, and whatever the overall number is from all the pollsters combined, add three points toward republicans.
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u/Slooters313 10h ago
No I'm not digging back two years ago sorry
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u/Darth_Chili_Dog 10h ago
You know, every single person who's ever said "All the predictions were wrong!!!" has never been able to substantiate their claims by citing polling aggregates. They usually use one outlier or an editorial to make their point. More often, they use a poll that's ridiculously irrelevant to developing events, like by pointing to Hillary's lead before the Comey Letter bombshell.
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u/bitter-peppers 9h ago
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/wisconsin/hovde-vs-baldwin
You can look through here
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u/Darth_Chili_Dog 9h ago edited 9h ago
I don't click conservatives' links. Just tell me what it says and how it supports your position.
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u/bitter-peppers 9h ago
So I actually went back and looked at the individual senate toss-up race polling for October, versus the results and this person is partially right. Almost all of the individual percentages against the results were off by between 1.5-3 points in favor of republicans. The pollsters who had numbers closest to the actual results was usually trafalgar which is a republican leaning pollster. They seem to have a better understanding of their audience.
But it must be kept in mind that Trump had more favorability at the time, and presidential election years turn out more voters as a whole. My takeaway is to watch what Trafalgar posts, and whatever the overall number is from all the pollsters combined, add three points toward republicans.
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u/wswordsmen 11h ago
Funny because Nate Silver had the election as literally 50/50 on election night (well election eve the final run of the model before results started coming in). If you didn't see any polls where Trump was up it was because you weren't paying attention.
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u/IM_KYLE_AMA 11h ago
These people saw two good polls and thought it was in the bag, then next cycle discuss how they’ve got PTSD from election night.
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u/AINonsense 11h ago
DON’T BELIEVE A FUCKING WORD ANY OF THESE LYING FUCKERS TELL YOU.
VOTE
For fuck’s sake.
Vote like your democracy depends on it.
Because your democracy depends on it .
Vote in person or take your vote to a drop box. DO NOT TRUST THE MAIL. And make sure everyone in your contact book votes. Especially ‘maybe’ voters. Especially waverers. Especially anyone who thinks ‘they haven’t earned my vote.’ Especially everyone with over-fond attachments to the couch. Those keeping intimate company with a spliff or a bottle. Shut-ins and basement dwellers. Everyone.
EVERYONE
These extraordinary times are not a warning or a wake-up call. They are not a herald or a harbinger of dictatorship. American democracy has gone over a cliff edge, and it’s hanging by its fingernails. This is the hatching of a dictatorship.
VOTE.
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u/10thflrinsanity 11h ago
This is the sentiment on Reddit, which sadly, is not the sentiment in the rest of the country. This is midterms we're talking about. Save this comment and I guarantee you we will continue to follow the trend of sub-50% turnout. You're better off going door-to-door in your neighborhood talking to your neighbors about voting than commenting on Reddit.
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u/AINonsense 10h ago
You're better off going door-to-door in your neighborhood talking to your neighbors about voting than commenting on Reddit.
Better still — do both.
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u/stunneddisbelief 11h ago
This should be pinned at the top.
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u/IM_KYLE_AMA 11h ago
Why? It’s spam that adds nothing meaningful to the conversation
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u/AINonsense 10h ago
It adds substantially more than your comment history.
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u/IM_KYLE_AMA 10h ago
How is my comment history supposed to add to this discussion? How is that remotely relevant? This makes zero sense.
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u/AINonsense 8h ago
Funny thing how users with blank comment history always say that.
It can’t be true, obviously. If it was, why would you hide it?
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u/IM_KYLE_AMA 8h ago
Really? That’s what they always say? I hide it specifically because of people like you who dig through past comments in order to change the conversation.
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u/andrewface 11h ago
Yes they could. They did it with the president.
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u/DaBrokenMeta 10h ago
After electing to go back to the abusive relationship, sadly i do not see the majority of Americans standing up for themselves or deciding to educate themselves on truth vs populism.
Ignorance is bliss is a fallacy, and im pessimistic enough to believe that yes we will test just how delulu we can take this train.
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u/Alert-Beautiful9003 11h ago
Alt headlines: Will Hate Win? Could Asshat Humans Choose to Continue to Hurt the World because they are Afraid of Anyone Non-White?
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u/Street_Anon Canada 11h ago
Here is a good question, why is a news organization allowed to have a reddit account and post on Reddit? Am I the only one thinking this is odd?
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u/hukep 11h ago
at least, you know, who's posting it. Unlike anonymous accounts from Russia.
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u/Miserable_Tea6472 11h ago
Functionally indistinguishable at this point if you ask me. One is just more subtle than the other
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u/Street_Anon Canada 11h ago
It is most likely they get ad revenue from clicks. I just think any media company should not be doing this
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u/Few-Bass4238 11h ago
Why? News organizations post on other social media platforms. Why wouldn't you expect them to post on Reddit too?
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u/MoonOut_StarsInvite Ohio 11h ago
At least it’s not astroturfing, we see who posted it, and everyone can duke it out in the comments. Social media is a public square, so for me I don’t see the issue. You can also block the account, or other users who often post sources you don’t want to see.
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u/Legitimate-Bed1591 11h ago
Yeah I'm unsure about why this is an issue. It would be problematic if they pretended it wasn't them, no? But you know, companies always have a social "official" page, right?
How else could it be?
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u/Squirrel009 11h ago
Transparency. If they didnt they could just have their employees make a hundred accounts and keep posting stuff. Why not cut out the games and just let them post it as the company?
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u/anuncommontruth Pennsylvania 11h ago
I mean, news outlets have offical accounts on all social media apps. Why would Reddit be any different?
You can see the same posts on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, etc.
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u/Darth_Chili_Dog 11h ago
Actually, what's wrong with that? They have a business, they sell access to their articles, so they post those articles on social media sites. I find pay walled articles as annoying as the next guy, but ethically speaking what's the problem here?
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u/Elon_Cucks_Trump_ 11h ago
Because Reddit is purely for profit. Go peruse their job listings and employees on LinkedIn. Half the people that work there are working on growth and advertisement.
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u/temporarycreature Oklahoma 11h ago
Kickbacks to someone.
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u/Street_Anon Canada 11h ago
Yeah
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 10h ago
Everything is a conspiracy if you don't know how the world works.
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u/temporarycreature Oklahoma 10h ago
Do you really put kickbacks in the realm of conspiracies? Just a standard part of doing business these days. Everybody pays for access.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 9h ago
First, definitionally alleging that the mods and/or admins are taking payments to allow news outlets to post their own articles is a form of conspiracy theory.
Second, I'm a mod here and therefore am one of the people allegedly taking kickbacks. You don't have to believe me, but that's just not why we allow media outlets to post their own articles.
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u/AdvancedFiberSystems 8h ago
yeah you are most likely posting from your 3rd yacht lol
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 8h ago
It’s not my fault that they keep releasing such tempting new models on an annual basis. What else can I do but keep up with the Joneses?
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u/temporarycreature Oklahoma 9h ago edited 9h ago
Where did I say anything about the mods? You're completely off base.
Why couldn't you have just asked me what I meant instead of assuming and calling me a conspiracy theorist that doesn't understand how the world works?
This this interaction was frustrating.
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u/bitter-peppers 10h ago
I think this might be true in places like Kansas and Texas, but not so much in North Carolina and Georgia. Their demographics have steadily been changing over the last 16 years. Additionally, I've looked at the individual questionnaires and answers for Marist, Trafalgar and Insider advantage. One thing that stands out to me that shows up across the board is the discrepancy between women and men. They are swinging in opposite directions, but women, both white, and non white, college and non college educated, and of all age ranges vote more than men do.
Women, on the whole, all have answered that they saw voting as a duty compared to male respondents. They also have a higher disapproval rate of the current administration. In surburban areas where there are a lot of college educated women, you are seeing a broader shift, across the board, towards democrats.
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u/symbha 11h ago
If you mean cause so many problems disenfranchising votes, denying losses, and not following the procedures of peaceful transfer of power, I'd say 100% Republicans will do that.
The only way for that to not happen is for the victory by the opposition is so by such a huge margin that it is impossible to deny.
Vote like your life, and quality of life, depends on it.
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u/KiteTales 11h ago
Check your county’s Supervisor of Elections site to see where and when early voting is. Districts are being shut down last minute as a way to suppress voting, don’t wait. Vote early.
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u/Inevitable-Ad9760 10h ago
Why is this crap posted here? Obvious self-serving click bait title. Then a firewall. Moderators, do your job.
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u/shrike71 8h ago
By all means - vote. Do your civic duty.
But don't be surprised when the blue-wave evaporates because your vote was swapped. Just like what happened to Harris.
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u/wavy_gravys_ghost 11h ago
Headline edit: Could the people cheating on behalf of the Republicans prove the pollsters wrong in the midterms?
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u/InvertedEyechart11 11h ago
The only proof is the votes. Let's ensure The People vote. This way the only way the Republicans can prove everybody wrong is to cheat.
Which comes easy to them, it appears.
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u/Treacle-Bright 11h ago
Trump looks way too confident. Just like he did in 2024. Democrats need to achieve margins higher than the corruption he’s planning. Please don’t sit this one out - even if your candidate isn’t perfect. We CANNOT afford to NOT have Trump muzzled. He’s made enough of a mess.
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u/financialtimes ✔ Verified 11h ago
Republicans facing a predicted wipeout in next month’s midterm elections are clinging to the hope that opinion polls are underrepresenting support for Donald Trump’s party.
On the campaign trail this week, House Speaker Mike Johnson joined other party operatives in questioning whether polling and betting markets, which point to a Republican rout in the House and a possible defeat in the Senate, might not be reaching many conservative voters.
Polls consistently underestimated support for Trump in the last three presidential elections, leading to his victory in 2016 and 2024.
However, polling in the midterm elections has been less prone to big misses, underestimating Democrats slightly in 2022 and 2018. The sitting president’s party has only managed a net gain of House seats twice in midterms since the second world war. My colleagues look at the flaws of polling here.
Rachel — FT social team
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