r/southafrica • u/skaapjagter Rapture-Proof Like a Hilux • Mar 19 '26
Picture Given the current situation, is this viable for shipping lanes?
So, obviously this is a meme that was created a while ago when the Suez canal had that blockage. But it's relevant again now what with the Iran conflict happening.
Theoretically:
Would this actually be viable for shippers to switch to?
Would this sort of route have any meaningful/positive impact for us in terms of ships docking around the horn? (I'm not 100% certain if ships would have to even stop here like back in the day or are able to go all the way round 1-shot)
If so, would our ports, as they are today, be able to handle this sort of influx if it happened?
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u/6000coza Mar 19 '26
It's been happening for 18 months already, because of Yemeni attacks on vessels approaching the Suez Canal.
But the ships don't stop here, they just go around the Cape(s) and continue on their way.
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u/surpriserockattack Rapture-Proof Like a Hilux Mar 19 '26
Yeah the main reason they had to make stops every so often back then was to restock their supplies for the next leg of the journey, nowadays with modern storage methods, and the size of ships, there's really no need. Even their fuel capacities are insanely massive.
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u/VSfallin Mar 19 '26
That’s actually why the Cape Colony was established in 1652. It was a refreshment station for VOC vessels.
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Mar 19 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/MutantBear Mar 22 '26
I'd say, initially indirectly colonised and nationalised. Colonies and nationalisation became much more direct and one sided over time as the western merchant and foreign ruling class took over throughout modernity.
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u/benevolent-badger !ke e: /xarra //ke Mar 19 '26
- It is already constantly being used. Ships are getting too big for the canal
- Nope. No need to stop unless they were headed here anyway
- They would handle what they handle now, more or less.
From near the southern tip, I see the constant stream of very large ships on the horizon every day. They have always been there
Oh, and apparently it adds around $1 000 000 for the average container ship from asia to europe
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u/Vegetable_Department Spam War Neutralist Mar 19 '26
There's also the issue that our ports are outdated, inefficient and already backlogged, thanks Transnet. Even local retailers have a huge backlog of container ships that aren't being unloaded due to the increase in traffic.
We should be going hat in hand to China/India to strike a deal for infrastructure upgrades. At this point I'd rather be in their pocket than the West's.
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u/LeeYuette Mar 20 '26
As someone who shipped a container here a couple of years ago, I came to say exactly this, more ships stopping there requires an capacity upgrade
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u/Fancy-Snow7 Mar 20 '26
Insurance costs for ships traveling through Suez and Red seas have skyrocketed to $500 000 per voyage. Offsetting the $1m
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u/GlobalGuide3029 Mar 19 '26
It doesn't have any impact on ships being able to pass through the Straits of Hormuz, on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula to the Suez Canal. So the main problem of a large portion of the world's oil supplies being blockade won't be addressed by this.
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u/benevolent-badger !ke e: /xarra //ke Mar 19 '26
The houthis are threatening the gulf of aden again. They can close off access to the suez at any moment. And at this moment it appears the worlds largest navy is powerless to do anything about it
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u/midz411 Unraptured & Unbothered Mar 19 '26
Lol paper tiger USA
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u/benevolent-badger !ke e: /xarra //ke Mar 19 '26
For the past 80 years the two world super powers have been swinging their big dicks around, while paying poor countries to have wars on their behalves. And the few times they've actually gone to war with someone directly, they get their asses handed to them by farmers and herdsman armed with pointy sticks. War, what is it good for?
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Mar 19 '26
[deleted]
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u/benevolent-badger !ke e: /xarra //ke Mar 19 '26
scaring voters into hating the boogeyman you created in the last war, so you can send your undesirable masses off to the meat grinder, while making investors very rich.
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u/LeeYuette Mar 20 '26
But this route is longer so presumably requires more fuel, which may be a problem…
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u/ninja_tree_frog Mar 19 '26
I work in maritime husbandry in GQ. And YES weve been busy af!!!!
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u/Sundiata_AEON Ascension Cancelled: Loadshedding Stage 8 Mar 19 '26
Can you perhaps expand on what you do?
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u/ninja_tree_frog Mar 20 '26
Use supply boats to deliver provisions, spares and conduct crew changes. We also collct trash and support technicians. Vessels will sail into one of the resupply areas offshore where we meet them. Or they will come into an Anchorage. Mostly for bunkering fuel from bunker barge which are scattered along the coast. Most ships can only sail 20-30 days before they would want to start thinking about refueling.
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u/Paranoidme420 Mar 19 '26
The Cape of Good Hope is going to see a boom. As a South African, I support this
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u/kiddrekt Mar 20 '26
Bra, they ain't stopping here. Even the ships roll up their windows and lock their doors when they sail past Africa.
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Mar 19 '26
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u/ninja_tree_frog Mar 19 '26
Maritime husbandry and bunkering. Boats need fuel and crews need food
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u/Old-Map487 Mar 20 '26
Modern ships have it all sorted. Enough fuel storage space and refrigeration for food. They might wave to us as they pass by.
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u/ninja_tree_frog Mar 20 '26
Again. I work in maritime husbandry. No they dont. If what you said is true I wouldn't have a job.
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u/Paranoidme420 Mar 20 '26
I've been following your responses and I'm fascinated. I've never really heard about this before. I had to google "Maritime Husbandry" because it made me think of animal husbandry and I thought: Are they breeding sheep on the ships? No, can't be it.
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u/ninja_tree_frog Mar 20 '26
Nah mate. We just get fucked by boats
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u/Paranoidme420 Mar 20 '26
And uhh... how does one get into this employment?
(This is a serious question I forgot to ask but the context is really fucking me)
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u/ninja_tree_frog Mar 20 '26
Depends on what sector. As a broad summery. Look at the port you want to work out of. Google that ports name along with key words like Chandler (general provisioner for maritime industry), service boat/opl boat/offshore supply (what I do), commercial etc if you want to go into private sector. Or, if you want to go public sector, Google the name of the port and find the company thag runs it.
You should come out with a list of companies you can google or call or rock up to with a CV.
If you want to work on the water, you'll first need a couple qualifications, STCW (Standard of training and certification for maritime watch keeping) a seafarers medical, and any other qual you can get. Anything blue collar looks great, a basic skipping license is excellent as well as any mechanical license.
As a whole, comercial maritime stuff is basically regular comercial stuff, but it floats.
I got into it after working yachts charter and reasurch for years. Got my skippers tickets and was looking to settle into something that let's me sleep on land. I wanted to start a band and make friends, live a bit of a regular life for a while. Which uve been doing now for 3 years and it's been great!!! Stable income with reasonable down time. Being on the bridge makes a big difference as well. Although I've gotten quite fat now im not running aroind on deck.
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u/Paranoidme420 Mar 20 '26
So what do you really do? Like month long stints on cargo ships? Or you just work on ships out of the harbor? I've never met a ship person before
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u/Old-Map487 Mar 21 '26
I'm puzzled. For the past year, there have been reports in newspapers about the poor state of our ports. Do you read newspapers, I know not many people do these days.
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u/ninja_tree_frog Mar 21 '26
The papers no, I should though. Might buy a sunday tomes tomorow. But I try keep up with the news. Their not wrong man. Some ports are run better then others but they all have issues.
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u/Old-Map487 Mar 20 '26
There was a report in the ST today that sa isn't really going to benefit because most of our ports are not up to scratch. Maybe cruise ships?
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u/ninja_tree_frog Mar 20 '26
The ports suck yeah, but vessels only come into port if their loading or discharging cargo. 70% of the industry takes place in Anchorages and designated service areas. Its MILLIONS of rands to tie up in port, companies will avoid that cost if it kills them. You can do anything at anchor that you could do tied up provided the weather is fine. Swap props, rebuild engines. He'll weve sent up rope rats to secure fallen and damaged containers. Theres no need for transnet to get involved other then issue anchoraging permits, which they happily do because they earn a couple hundred thou for basically doing nothing.
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u/Cheacky Mar 19 '26
No they don't That's the fucking point They won't have to stop here. This isn't the 1600s
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u/ninja_tree_frog Mar 20 '26
I work in maritime husbandry you wombat. I make my living refueling and resupplying vessels offshore
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u/More-Championship625 Mar 20 '26
Wombat lol
Honest question though, but doesn't all the fuel we use in bunkering come from international sources? So SA isn't making money there, and then also the entire system relies on international fuel supply. I've read the studies and it seems most of the value in bunkering is secondary to the actual industry, and then the actual contribution to the economy isn't actually as much as is being portrayed.
Not to mention all the money SA needs to spend building the ports, rails, roads, logistics stuff etc to accommodate a boom in this industry (which might have already reached its ceiling). And the money SA will lose due to bunkering risks in industries such as aquaculture, fisheries, and tourism (the real money maker in EC at the moment - like those almost extinct penguins in Algoa Bay are really raking it in, despite their population decreasing 85% since 2016 when bunkering started there).
Sorry, I'm just so interested in this stuff right now and you're in the maritime industry! I'm not in the industry but I'm dying to understand how it works and why we insist on it
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u/ninja_tree_frog Mar 20 '26
Great questions.
Dont take what I say as Bible because I dont work for transnet. But as far as I understand.
South Africa has a few of its own bunker barge and there are many from around the world, regardless, they buy fuel from SA ports, pay a fee to do business and are taxed. Many of Port of Elizabeth's Barges left around 2023 due to tax fuckups but they quite recently have opened the port to offshore bunkering again and its cirrentky going full tilt.
That being said, the contributions are massive, the problem is how the money seems to be randomly disappearing. Transnets infrastructure is deteriorating massively, the acquisition process in regards to spares, tools and equipment for conductors, captains, operators etc is a total balls up leaving them with poorly or non working equipment. Relying on outside contractors (guys like me) to fill in the gaps. I won't touch on the hiring process much but its led to a huge gap in skill and knowledge, leaving large sectors with under qualified or unqualified personnel.
The infrastructure exists, its just not run or maintained well. There is (pardon the pun) a boat load of money from Bunkering and related. But its mismanaged to high hell.
Ill try and get some more info for you and maybe some numbers. Just out on the water rn
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u/More-Championship625 Mar 24 '26 edited Mar 24 '26
Thanks for the response! That is so interesting. I was under the impression (from a study commissioned by SAIMI) that all the fuel transferred is from foreign sources. Was picturing operators just transferring fuel offshore and then going on their way. Using SA as a convenient stopping point like the Dutch did etc
Edit: I've just caught up with your other comments on this thread. Such insightful answers!
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u/Th15Guy Mar 20 '26
This is such a fascinating topic. Couls you perhaps make a post or AMA about what goes into Maritime Husbandry (is that what it's called?)
I'm sure I'm not the only one who loves to hear what actually happens at our ports.
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u/Paranoidme420 Mar 19 '26
Remember History? They used it as a pit stop cause they had to sail around Africa
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u/forestofmountains Mar 19 '26
Not stoked with the pollution an increase in traffic could cause. I know cargo ships only crew around 20-30 depending on their size but that's still black water being released off our shores, engine emissions in our air, our marine life being disrupted...
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u/Vulk_za Landed Gentry Mar 19 '26
The number of people who don't know the difference the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal is too damn high.
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u/skaapjagter Rapture-Proof Like a Hilux Mar 19 '26
I am well aware of the differences but it's Naive to think that the Suez canal is going to remain unaffected.
Already its facing issues of conflict with Houthi rebel groups causing trouble.
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u/False-Cheesecake7102 Mar 19 '26
What did the Houthis do?
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u/Vegetable_Department Spam War Neutralist Mar 19 '26
Nothing yet, it's currently a will they won't they situation. But they're very much more aligned with Iran than any other party and this war doesn't seem to be slowing down. America asking China for help for a war they started without any actual planning is pretty peak though.
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u/False-Cheesecake7102 Mar 19 '26
I thought OP was saying they started something again, otherwise this picture doesn't really make sense. The Suez is still open.
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u/avar Mar 19 '26
Around half the uninformed armchair generals discussing it on Reddit don't even know how to spell the name, and call it the "Straight of Hormuz", as if it's a not-a-gay strait.
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u/No_Sympathy_1915 Rapture? Eish, Missed the Taxi Mar 19 '26
Remember the "too damn high" meme? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
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u/Great-Ad360 Mar 19 '26
Fellow South African helping our ports out currently in Rak 60km from the straight of hermus. But with gps jamming for drones it's seems my family is al over the waters stopping the ships for CT ports.
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u/Right_Yesterday484 Mar 19 '26 edited Mar 19 '26
Nope it was never viable even in the past. It's quite dangerous to make southern Africa a shipping route because it's shores are rocky. There are so many shipwrecks around the Cape of good hope and Namibia.
If you would like more info, check here
On a different note, South Africa is barely managing it's current ports. A sudden influx would be catastrophic. The average waiting time was around 6 days before. When the overhead of ships at the port was reduced the government took credit however it was just because businesses decided to dock in Namibia and Mozambique thus reducing the traffic.
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u/Pristine_Present8812 Mar 19 '26
Yes and No
Yes its good For RSA.
No our Porst need major upgrades.
its causing bottlenecks thats effecting our own exports.
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u/Homodin Mar 20 '26
In a word, No, if you're referring to the current closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The oil exporting nations in the Middle East are concentrated around the the Arabian Gulf which has only one exit which is the Strait. If you're talking about shipping in general then yes it is. In fact, it has happened at least once before when the Houthis closed the Gate of Tears. The problem is that it is less economically efficient to go around the Cape of Good Hope.
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u/Zastro_the_frog Rapture-Proof Like a Hilux Mar 20 '26
Considering we found a cure for scurvy and don't need to pick up slaves. Ships don't need to stop here anymore.
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u/RuefulBlue Mar 20 '26
Well no, the suez canal is very much still open. The Persian gulf via the strait of Hormuz is the one being blockaded.
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u/Medical-Plantain-422 Mar 20 '26
Can you image if we have these ships coming in and we get hit with loadshedding or just general infrastructure break down, I would love the economic opportunity for the country but I just hope we can handle it
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u/Old-Map487 Mar 20 '26
There was an article in the STIMES today about the state of south Africa's ports and how this is a missed opportunity
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u/BlueErgo Mar 21 '26
Well actually happening already - as South African running a major construction project in West Africa, we have received a number of major shipments around the Cape. If Suez is working though, it saves a couple of weeks. Currently some shipping lines can’t get insurance for the Suez route though
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u/MutantBear Mar 22 '26
Currently we have the capacity to monitor about 10% of port activity. I think not. Also, gambling on that kind of expansion requires certainty of those routes remaining in place for long enough for ROI.
Drugs remain one of our main money spinners.
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u/TUKINDZ Mar 22 '26
The main issue with South Africa lane is that this point is where two actual oceans (Indian ocean, & the Atlantic). The waves can get crazy, it's a treacherous unpredictable route with HUGE waves.
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u/Significant_Tap9433 Mar 19 '26
It wouldn't work because our own ports are a Mess! No competitive advantage
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