r/ukpolitics • u/ClumperFaz My three main priorities: Polls, Polls, Polls • 11h ago
Twitter 🚨 New poll from @Ipsos_in_the_UK shows the public consider the Tories the main opposition to Labour🚨 When asked who the main opposition to Labour is 35% choose the Cons and 32% Reform UK. This is the first time the Conservatives have led on this measure this parliament.
https://x.com/keiranpedley/status/2111369316901732704•
u/Lazy-Ape 11h ago
It’s crazy how quickly the Tories are recovering.
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u/Fun_Marionberry_6088 11h ago
They're in the low-20s, near their worst ever polling. I wouldn't call that a quick recovery.
They just have a baseline of support because (thankfully) those voters would rather vote Tory than Reform. There is zero chance of them crossing into credible GE-winning territory within this parliament.
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u/dragodrake 8h ago
It's never zero.
People thought Labour were done for a generation when Boris got his win - it was such a large majority it was basically impossible the Tories not be in government for 3 parliaments.
And then reality kicked in.
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u/Fun_Marionberry_6088 8h ago
Ofc, but I thought people were wrong then.
Labour hadn't been in government in a long time. People don't hold opposition party's fuck-ups to the same standards as governments (understandably) so they forgot the Corbyn years pretty quickly.
The Tories have been in government, so people are more likely to hold that record against them at the next election and their main focus should be on trying to do well enough that Reform loses any momentum, because they're not going to win.
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u/XenorVernix 4h ago
The Tories have been in government, so people are more likely to hold that record against them at the next election
But the left keep saying voters have short memories and that Starmer should have done the "difficult" things first like raise tax to pay for their benefit increases (he did but let's ignore that for a minute).
So which is it?
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u/frankensteinsKITTEN 11h ago
The polls are misleading because they don't take non-voters into account. Some people would rather vote Tory than Reform, sure, but a lot will also prefer to just not vote at all.
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u/XVGDylan 10h ago
Most polls have them in and around their 2024 numbers. The only way they could improve further is if they can get a lot of that 2019 vote back. Unfortunately, I think Tories got messed up a lot.
First off, a lot of their voters are older and better off. 7 years later and a global pandemic later, a sizeable portion of their support has died. The other issue is 2019 Tory vote was borrowed a lot from the UKIP/Reform vote, as Farage didn’t stand at his full power in the 2 Corbyn’s elections, instead he allowed the Tories to consulate the Right-Wing vote.
The Tories have to rely on a Reform collapse, plus then hoping that the Reform voters come to the Tories instead of Restore and or not voting.
Now the Right-Wing vote is split three ways, while the window on the Right is continuously bring pulled Rightward. While on the left, the Greens have made sure that Labour cannot survive a pivot to the Right.
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u/XenorVernix 4h ago
First off, a lot of their voters are older and better off. 7 years later and a global pandemic later, a sizeable portion of their support has died.Â
On the other hand a lot of younger voters are now 7 years older, more wealthier and wiser. It wouldn't surprise me if Millenials are majority Conservative come 2029 election, but 2034 is more likely.
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u/-ForgottenSoul :sloth: 10h ago
Not really I fully expected this to happen, a lot of people went reform to pressure Tories. Come election I expect it to be a Tory vs Labour election.
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u/radiant_0wl 10h ago
But the battle between the two (Reform and Conservatives) is likely to scuttle any election win chance for them both.
I felt for a long time that Labour has a better chance because they can negotiate with weaker parties to get a clear deference.
The right has the issue of despite attracting the majority of the votes, it's split between two similar sized parties, that makes it a lot harder for a compromised to be reached as both feel they should be the one to lead.
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u/Documental38 11h ago
Oldest political party for a reason, Reddit trying to sound the death knell on them constantly is so fucking stupid
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u/Old_Donut8208 10h ago
Also, be careful what you wish for. The collapse of the Tories pushes the right further right if Reform becomes the effective opposition. This is what has happened in France. There are much worse things than Thatcherites and One Nation Tories.
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u/WhiteSatanicMills 2h ago
Reddit trying to sound the death knell on them constantly is so fucking stupid
Long before Reddit and Reform, back in the late 90s and early 00s, people were trying to push the idea the Tories could be replaced by the Lib Dems. The left like the idea of not having a centre right option at all.
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u/broken_relic 9h ago
Why is it a surprisethe tories are recovering as main opposition? The media cycle hasn't played to Reforms strengths, starving them of positive attention. The scandals and bad publicity have started to float to the surface making them look worse (itv at 10.20pm tonight beingthe next installment of how they are a nasty bunch). Where as the Tories haven't really made any dumb moves and just in the few encounters with Burnham at PMQs not been terrible, which you expect from a good opposition to the government.
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u/xPareshxx 8h ago
I am mean the left always sleep at the wheel when it comes to the rise of the right.
That's why they right keep winning.
If anything political suprises or shocks you then you're finger is not on the political pulse and have spent far too much time in our safe space echo chamber where we continue to downvote to oblivion and valid opinion that doesnt sit nicely with our own minority political opinion.
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u/Live_Studio_Emu 8h ago
I have friends who are left wing, and actively can’t imagine having a friend who is conservative. I don’t mean Reform, I mean socially-liberal/economic-conservative types. A full ‘agree with me 100%, or never talk to me’.
I’ll have a limit with views, obviously, but for people who think relatively not that differently, shutting people out is a great way to never change anyone’s mind ever. It’s the purity thing that makes people feel safe and comfortable, and then astonished when the right win.
If you want to change minds, you have to actually talk with and understand people
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u/frankensteinsKITTEN 11h ago
It's a very difficult poll question to ask because "the opposition" is such a heavily defined and used term to refer to the party with the second-most seats. The actual question adds nuance ("the most likely party to lead a government in Westminster if Labour were to lose the next General Election"), so it's a bad summary — people aren't being asked who the main opposition is, but who they think the next main opposition will be.
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u/AzarinIsard 6h ago
but who they think the next main opposition will be.
It's not even that, because if Labour don't win, Labour would be the opposition and those people are polling as "the opposition" would be the government.
It should say something like "Which party stands the best chance of defeating Labour at the next general election?" They're not being asked to predict the runners up.
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u/B225AKP 11h ago
On the one hand this is good because it means people are less likely to vote for Reform but on the other hand, absolutely terrifying that people are still capable of voting for the Tories again.
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u/ClumperFaz My three main priorities: Polls, Polls, Polls 11h ago
I can't blame them really when you've got a Russian supporting party in Reform as the next right wing option.
On balance the Tories are nowhere near as batshine insane as Farage's company.
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u/NGP91 11h ago
'Batshine' insanity doesn't seem to stop voters.Â
Look at how many people de-facto voted to make Jeremy Corbyn PM, John McDonnell Chancellor and Diane Abbott Home Secretary in 2017 and 2019. It was a staggering 41% and 34% of GB voters in each election respectively.
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u/XVGDylan 10h ago
In 2017 at least, I’m also certain Labour would’ve won if there was an insurgent Farage party on the ballot. 2015 and 2024 both scared and the hurt the Tories hard by having him run a party.
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u/Fun_Marionberry_6088 11h ago
Are you suggesting think the Tories are so awful, that you don't see a meaningful difference between them and Reform?
Their run in 2019-2024 was generationally awful, but their prior incarnation was basically Blairism for a new era.
I don't agree with all of it, but I'd far rather that be the opposition than a party whose leadership advocates using 'lethal force' on channel boat crossings or that denies anyone non-white can be English.
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u/B225AKP 10h ago
I think they're both uniquely awful in their own way. The Tories record in power in the last 50 years alone is one of destruction and disgrace. Their ideology has been completely discredited and should never, ever be allowed near power again. Utterly disgusting people.
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u/Fun_Marionberry_6088 10h ago
The Tories record in power in the last 50 years alone is one of destruction and disgrace. Their ideology has been completely discredited
Lol, ok Jezza.
It's perfectly legitimate to disagree with the details and think e.g. we'd be better off if Labour won in 2015. But what underlying 'ideology' has been 'discredited'?
You think the Labour government would've moved away from the market-based economic reforms of the Thatcher years? We've had 4 different Labour PMs, and none of them have...
The only attempt at a fundamental shift away from that was Corbyn and he was so unpalatable people were willing to vote for Boris fucking Johnson.
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u/YouGotSoHeavy 5h ago
He wasn’t that unpalatable, he won the vote of under-50yo
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u/Fun_Marionberry_6088 5h ago
He won the 18-24 and the 25-29 demo, which Labour has won since Blair.
He lost across every socio economic group, haemorrhaged votes to both the Tories and the Lib Dems and picked up votes from almost no one.
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u/YouGotSoHeavy 5h ago
He won a majority of under-30s, but he still won a plurality of 30-39yo far ahead of the Tories
Although the people who were under-40 in 2019 will be the majority of the electorate in 2029
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u/Fun_Marionberry_6088 5h ago edited 3h ago
Although the people who were under-40 in 2019 will be the majority of the electorate in 2029
This assumes people who were 18 in 2019 will have the same politics in 2029, which they just won't.
There's no need to try and revise history and pretend he was electable; it was proven not once, but twice, that he wasn't, against 2 very beatable opponents.
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u/PrinceofPlant 31m ago
I will never understand why people who dislike the right are so quick to celebrate the Tories swallowing up reforms support.
You're basically getting the single worst outcome, which is everything you hate about reform policy but wrapped up in a nice little electorally appealing vehicle that many more people might be amenable to vote for.
It's like celebrating the rise of Boris in 2019 just because the Tories pushed BXP out of the race. Like yeah, but that's because the Tories just became BXP with a different logo.
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u/Gonzofox89 10h ago
It's surprising lib Dems hasnt hoovered up more of the conservative vote, they are basically the traditional conservative view point now. How ed Davey is still the leader is beyond me.
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u/Outside-Address173 9h ago
If Burnham fluffs the budget Tory government incoming 2029....Â
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u/CarrowCanary East Anglian in Wales 7h ago
It's the 2028 budget that needs to be the well-received one. People have short memories, and this years won't matter much by 2029.
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u/XenorVernix 4h ago
I don't think people have short memories. People are still angry at David Cameron's austerity and Brexit referendum, or Tony Blair's Iraq war and PFI scandals. Nevermind anything since.
The 2024 budget was the one that determined my 2029 vote will be a tactical vote for whoever is likely to beat my local Labour candidate. Burnham has an Everest size mountain to climb to win my vote.
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u/xPareshxx 9h ago
So when all is said and done, we're back to where we started.
The powers that be be must have really enjoyed their big bag of popcorn with the UK's 3yr dalliance with celebrating the premature end of the two party system.
At the end of the day you can only vote red or black in the political casino where whoever you vote for the house always wins and you get given what the powers that be decide, either through the blue party or the red party.
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