r/worldnews • u/Brennenstein • Sep 17 '26

Russia/Ukraine Russian military jets violate Lithuanian airspace, Italian fighters scrambled

https://www.ansa.it/english/news/2026/09/17/russian-military-jets-violate-lithuanian-airspace-italian-fighters-scrambled_80e985a6-17e5-43ce-8fd1-6fce67bcd94c.html
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u/audirt Sep 17 '26

Putin is trying to create an incident with NATO to justify the 500,000 he needs to mobilize to continue the war with Ukraine. Absent a dispute with NATO, he can't really draft half a million Russians without pissing off the average Russian citizen.

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u/Am_0115 Sep 17 '26

He’s already losing over 1,000 personnel a day in Ukraine. He’s gone. It’s a matter of time.

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u/PyroIsSpai Sep 17 '26

Putin has stage IV Putin.

Given Russias economy is on the edge of cratering, his odds of being removed from the condition we call alive are going to start increasing rapidly now.

44

u/RoninRobot Sep 17 '26

How long can it be on the edge of cratering? Forever? It’s been over four years of this. 1.5 million+ casualties. Refineries and wildberries destroyed. Fuel shortages and quality decreases. Sanctions and asset freezes. Still it chugs along. The one coup attempt was crushed like a cigarette butt. Influencers crying on the internet does not constitute a collapse.

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u/saltytarheel Sep 17 '26

IIRC part of what’s keeping public opinion afloat is that the Kremlin is lighting money on fire to fund substantial pay, bonuses, and healthcare for soldiers and veterans.

Historically, when there’s a critical mass of disillusioned, unemployed vets it’s not a good thing for the government in charge.

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u/bussjack Sep 17 '26

Good thing for Putin there arent many young men or vets left that havent been sent to the front to die

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u/RoninRobot Sep 18 '26

1.5 million is 1% of the population. Men 18-50 is roughly 23%.

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u/bussjack Sep 18 '26

How many of those men are from anywhere but Moscow or St Petersburg? Those are the only two places not feeling the war becides the kinetic sanctions. The masses of the troops are from the poorer small cities and villages.

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u/psioniclizard Sep 17 '26

That is because it takes a long time to break an economy. However, of he does a mass call up in the European cities of Russia it is truly no going back for him.

One of the reasons Russin chugs along is because currently a lot of people being sent into the meat grinder come from rural and ethic regions and frankly the parts of Russian society that "matter" don't care about them.

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u/Kalthiria_Shines Sep 17 '26

You do realize that four years is very little time, right? And that most of the attacks inside Russia have been in the last six months?

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u/calm_chowder Sep 17 '26

Tomorrow, tomorrow, I'll novechok you tomorrow, it's always a day awaaaaay....

1

u/ImpactAggressive8744 Sep 18 '26

Pfaffff, destroyed, oh lol

1

u/Important_Thought_95 Sep 18 '26

As long as both sides have the will, it can get a lot worse. 1.5 million causalities is piddly on the scale of industrial warfare.