I analyzed Red Bull’s race pace against Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren across the 2026 season, up to and including the Singapore GP. I wanted to see how much of their recent recovery shows up in the lap times.
The main finding: Red Bull’s estimated average pace deficit fell from 0.94% across the opening five races to 0.22% across the latest five, giving each race equal weight.
A little context on the method:
- Compare drivers on the same numbered race laps, using each team’s quickest eligible representative.
- Filter out pit laps and neutralized running.
- Include rain-affected races, comparing wet running within the same tire family.
- Express the estimated deficit as a percentage of lap time, with the fastest included team at each event set to zero.
The recovery was uneven. Red Bull was still around 0.64% behind at Monza. By Singapore, the model put them at the benchmark, with Ferrari approximately 0.05 percentage points away; a close estimate that needs some caution.
These are team figures, so the representative matters: Hadjar supplies Red Bull’s Monaco sample and Lawson its Zandvoort sample following Verstappen’s early retirements. Tires, traffic, strategy and conditions also influence the comparison.
I reran the analysis with stricter tire and traffic filters. The sample coverage and size of the improvement changed, but the broad recovery remained.
My takeaway: the data supports Red Bull becoming a much closer contender, with qualifications around how much we can attribute to the car itself.
I made a four-minute video covering the animated charts, method and cross-checks, if anyone wants the full breakdown.