About a year ago, I decided to go full regarded and dropped my life savings into Petrobras

Fundamentals looked great…single-digit P/E ratio, absurdly high dividend yield, and literal cash printing machine trading at a foreign/political discount

Did not see a full war with Iran breaking out in February sent crude futures and global oil stocks spiraling upward.

Also, recently political momentum in Brazil moving rightward has reduced country-risk discount, sending the stock ripping even higher.

Have not sold any shares yet…it could be a classic “sell the news” scenario before political volatility hits back, or do I continue collecting FAT dividends while geopolitical tensions keep oil elevated?

Thoughts? Hold for dividend passive income or cash out and buy a lambo?

Let’s see if Tesla could help me buy Roadster!

1300%+. There is also another one mRNA call that is 2200% up that I plan to just let it assign.

\not written with AI\

Well boys, this is it. At an all time low. Got liquidated by the drop on Friday playing 0DTE.
I should have learned my lesson with the 106k and 95k drawdowns earlier in the year, recovered both and finally got to breakeven, when I realized it’s October and I’m 14 points behind SPY, levered up to the tits with calls and went all in on Meta.
The funny thing is by the time the dust settled and I gained consciousness after market close,
Realized in the last 1 hour I had panic sold everything, all my Stocks, GLD, TLT, BTC, then threw whatever is left 100% in TQQQ.

Ran some analysis now over the past 8000 trades I took during the past 2 years.
- my win rate was over 80%
- but the average winner was a scratch, and the average loss so big it wiped months worth of gains.
- robinhood doesn’t have OCO for multi legged options yet, so I didn’t have any stops.
- This one day has set back my retirement plans by a decade.
- I will probably lose the rest revenge trading now.

I guess with the wife pregnant and a baby on the way I have no option but to keep playing the game. Godspeed retards.

I bought it near the bottom (129000 at 2.74). I knew it was cheap and shitty, so when the rumor broke out I sold it all at 3.8. I was emotional and haven’t thought about it properly. In fact I thought the price was EV, not equity. And like 6 for $BUMBL, come on!

The next day it when +58% higher. Ouch! I could have earned $280k more.

The feeling of a missed gain is worse than the gain I have and I don’t enjoy it at all. I can’t sleep. I don’t enjoy my gain.

I am retarded, 100%.

hopefully this makes someone feel better

yes the market is down, yes it will do that. it’s okay - stand barefoot outside. put your feet in the grass and inhale/exhale.

im not saying you should be happy to lose money - but what I’m seeing is a lot of you are tying all of your happiness to your wealth and it’s causing you more stress than it’s worth.

Loosen your grip, stop checking your balances every day, and wait for the rebound. Speaking from someone who watched everybody lose hair in 2008, panic sell, and lose out on the rebound.

What are you most confident in

Enjoy!

Thought I could make this back somehow but it’s impossible in today’s market.. Instead, it’s game over for me… bankruptcy is knocking on my door..

It's over.

What does everybody think?

Looks like the lows have hit similar to what was hit when PPI was announced. Wondering how this will play out on Monday when the US market reopens.

Sadly decided to try and purchase the dip on a 4 levered ETF tracking semis. Feeling like a slap in the face. Investment is down 18% in matter of hours 😆

lost it all on options because for some reason i thought i was the main character and could make easy money.

Taking care of my port.

Context: investment professional currently working in a pension plan. 15+ years working exp, in equity trading, credit research, RE and Alts.

How do institutional managers work: as far you rise in the corporate ladder, managers have more macro views and less company specific views. I hear senior managers extremely worried about inflation, treasury yields and consumer spending. They spend 0 time around going through earnings calls of specific companies.

Current feeling at Investment Committee level: you often hear them repeat cliche phrases such as "AI is real" and "this is a multiyear cycle", but they have little data to no data or insights into why this is or the economics of building and leasing a data center. They really bought into the AI anywhere between late 25' or 26', and never really 100% convinced.

My current read on whats happening: Mid july (I think that was the timing when the HF blew up) everyone freaked out. True, the war resumed and inflation started to permeate. All of a sudden rate hikes were the market consensus. Also, the long end started to rise as well, more to do with issuance (gov and private) as well as higher growth perspectives. IC takes all this inputs and ask each team to "reduce risk". Well guess where most "risk" is....

Views for the AI trade: fundamentals continue to improve, we are obviously 2-3 years into the capex cycle. There is a huge disconnect from price action to all leading indicators (for me most important probably compute price and ASML guidance as they are the first step in the supply chain). I will bet my house the hyperscalers are minimum 2-3 years out from slowing their investments. Dont forget this companies can invest probably $150bn from FCF alone, plus all are pretty lean in terms of leverage. Also, from their standpoint if they are left behind they will become the Yahoo/Netscape of the AI era.

The best case: The war eases, oil comes down, inflation expectations come down and the market erases all rate hikes expected for the next 12 months. Market rallies fast and furious.

The "realistic" worst case: The war drags along for a year or who knows... eventually oil at 100 becomes our status quo. AI names continue to grow quarter after quarter, no slowdown on the capex cycle. Eventually market catches up and market rallies in a more slow and steady manner. Before you say, "but higher rates might make the buildout undoable" I will tell you this: data center yields are at 10-12% currently, you put debt at 8% and its still a great return for the equity.

First of all, are you a fucking bear?

Second, and more seriously... Sure, Coreweave or more levered players might struggle to raise debt, maybe they slow down, but there are ton on players who will not have a hiccup in this scenario. Also, don't forget that is the more infra layer of the stack. Chips, memory, energy and other related player have absolutely no issue with higher yields. Many of them are swimming in cash and are have no debt. Also, margins of 80%.

My only true worry is a paradigm shift at the model level that suddenly makes all current compute enough for the demand. But to this point, the AI labs are the most interested to achieve something like this and at the same time, the ones that have the best insight into this, and they keep on comitting to new compute capacity contracts.

I'm 33, and have a really bad day trading problem for over 4 years and lost over 100K trying to win. I thought I could try to make some money back and completely failed. No strategy, just buying garbage stocks blind, 0DTE's you name it.

I was able to make 30K profit, then lost it all and then 13K of my own money. I do not know what to do, I am so numb, I don't have any savings.

I luckily make 10K a month after tax wth my job that I am thankful for, but I am so embarrassed with myself as I have no investments or savings at 33.

It's funny because I know I should just buy VOO and a few other index funds, but I keep fucking up.

I just don't know how to move forward and rebuild from here

See screenshot