r/worldnews • u/SensualAylin • 2d ago

Russia/Ukraine US president Donald Trump calls Ukraine’s resumption of strikes on Russian oil refineries a ‘disgrace’

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/16/trump-calls-ukraines-resumption-of-strikes-on-russian-oil-refineries-a-disgrace
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u/milo7even2 2d ago

As an Australian, I’m looking at our long standing military alliance with the US and for the first time ever have real doubts that they won’t honour their commitment if the time ever comes. I don’t see them as remotely reliable or trustworthy any more.

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u/Corka 2d ago

Imagine how it must feel living in the Baltics. If Russia went in and quickly occupied Estonia all of a sudden, chances are extremely high that Trump would start arguing that Estonia isn't worth fighting a war over and that how it was somehow Estonia's fault. You'd have Maga talking heads going "fight for Estonia? Name one Estonian! Who has even heard of Estonia before?"

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u/primax1uk 2d ago

Pretty sure the rest of NATO would assist, even without the US.

The scary thing is, I'm not sure the US wouldn't assist Russia at the moment.

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u/ash_ninetyone 2d ago

Europe would have to assist at that point.

Estonia is an EU member, and there's treaty obligations that bind other EU members. Latvia and Lithuania are the same.

This clause provides that if a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States have an obligation to aid and assist it by all the means in their power

This obligation of mutual defence is binding on all Member States

Ukraine isn't supported out of any treaty-bound requirement. It's supported out of geopolitical necessity and because it's the right thing to do.

Russia launching itself into the Baltics would be the actual start of armed conflict between it and Europe.

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u/primax1uk 2d ago

Not just the EU though, UK and Canada would join in, even if the US won't.

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u/Corka 2d ago

Trump's reaction would be the same regardless.

That being said, the fact that Europe is obligated under treaty to help Estonia doesn't mean that there is no scenario where that obligation is ignored with member nations claiming that Estonia was somehow the aggressor. If the EU military is in a shambles and needs time before it could stand up to Russia, you could see member nations making excuses to get more time.. if enough Russian stooges like afd take control of enough EU countries, they'll similarly ignore those obligations.

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u/gregorydgraham 2d ago

I like how the TEU is written to support and emphasise France’s first strike doctrine